Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion

[CheesyPoofs]

  On 1/6/2011 at 5:31 PM, Dr No said:

Feb 2007?

I don't remember exactly how far west the low tracked for that event, but that was pretty much a major sleet storm with only a few flakes at the beginning.

[Fozz]

  On 1/6/2011 at 5:31 PM, Dr No said:

Feb 2007?

That wasn't a lakes cutter.

[CheesyPoofs]

  On 1/6/2011 at 5:35 PM, Fozz said:

That wasn't a lakes cutter.

Yeah, I didn't think it was. People have a habit of calling any storm that doesn't track up the coast a "lakes cutter," regardless of how far west the low actually tracks.

[Dr No]

  On 1/6/2011 at 5:34 PM, CheesyPoofs said:

I don't remember how far west the low tracked for that event, but that was pretty much a major sleet storm with only a few flakes at the beginning.

No Feb 26

[CheesyPoofs]

  On 1/6/2011 at 5:38 PM, Dr No said:

No Feb 26

Sorry to go off topic from the point of the thread (what else is there to do as we wait for the Euro? ), but I don't recall any Feb 26th event?? Looking at the LWX archives, it looks like a few places in VA (Culpepper, EZF, orange) got an inch or two but nothing in the immediate DC/Baltimore metro.

[Dr No]

  On 1/6/2011 at 5:42 PM, CheesyPoofs said:

Going off topic from the point of the thread (what else is there to do as we wait for the Euro? ), but I don't recall any Feb 26th event?? Looking at the LWX archives, it looks like a few places in VA (Culpepper, EZF, orange) got an inch or two but nothing in the immediate DC/Baltimore metro.

I had 5" of wet snow from the storm. That was the infamous one where LWX predicted ZR to rain and it was all snow at least in the western burbs - they hoisted WSWs right when it was winding down.

There's little documentation on it from their site- wish I could pull it up on eastern.

http://www.njfreeway.../25-Feb-07.html

[Kevin Druff]

  On 1/6/2011 at 5:20 PM, DCTeacherman said:

I am a teacher. Are you trying to tell me that I shouldn't wish for snow days or that wishing for snows means I don't deserve a raise?

No. I'm simply saying that, to the majority of the taxpaying public, who don't get snow days off, who don't get 2 weeks for Christmas, who don't get 2.5 months for summer vacation, your pleading for snow days and cheering when it happens is not conducive to your argument for deserving of a raise.

Don't get me wrong. My mom's a teacher. My wife's a teacher. As such, I have a lot of friends who are teachers. I think, on the whole, they're underpaid and even more under-appreciated.

My point is that the snow weenieishness doesn't help your cause.

[CheesyPoofs]

  On 1/6/2011 at 5:46 PM, Dr No said:

I had 5" of wet snow from the storm. That was the infamous one where LWX predicted ZR to rain and it was all snow at least in the western burbs - they hoisted WSWs right when it was winding down.

There's little documentation on it from their site- wish I could pull it up on eastern.

http://www.njfreeway.../25-Feb-07.html

Cool, I didn't remember it (which means it must have been rain for my backyard ). Here's the map they did for the event

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/events/?event=20070225

Alright, Euro has initialized...time to stop talking about 4 years ago

[PhineasC]

Euro will look terrible.

[ravensrule]

  On 1/6/2011 at 5:54 PM, PhineasC said:

Euro will look terrible.

Disagree i think it will look so so.

[PhineasC]

  On 1/6/2011 at 5:55 PM, ravensrule said:

Disagree i think it will look so so.

OTS

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

  On 1/6/2011 at 5:49 PM, Kevin Druff said:

No. I'm simply saying that, to the majority of the taxpaying public, who don't get snow days off, who don't get 2 weeks for Christmas, who don't get 2.5 months for summer vacation, your pleading for snow days and cheering when it happens is not conducive to your argument for deserving of a raise.

Don't get me wrong. My mom's a teacher. My wife's a teacher. As such, I have a lot of friends who are teachers. I think, on the whole, they're underpaid and even more under-appreciated.

My point is that the snow weenieishness doesn't help your cause.

Hahaha

Luckily I'm not arguing for a raise.

It's just that snow days for me = happiness because I love weather and happiness because I get to sleep in.

[ravensrule]

  On 1/6/2011 at 5:56 PM, PhineasC said:

OTS

That may very well be, but i think the setup will still look decent. OTS is no big deal at this point, if it is still OTS on Saturday then i will jump ship.

[mitchnick]

I don't think it really matters what the Euro or any of the models mean at this point.

So far this year, everything that looked good at 5-6 days, no matter what the model, has not worked out.

Yeah, I enjoy the "game" of all this and wouldn't be here if I didn't, but the days of thinking the Euro or any one model is capable of reaching a reasonably accurate forecast for our area is gone, if it ever "reasonably" existed

[Huffwx]

  On 1/6/2011 at 5:49 PM, Kevin Druff said:

No. I'm simply saying that, to the majority of the taxpaying public, who don't get snow days off, who don't get 2 weeks for Christmas, who don't get 2.5 months for summer vacation, your pleading for snow days and cheering when it happens is not conducive to your argument for deserving of a raise.

Don't get me wrong. My mom's a teacher. My wife's a teacher. As such, I have a lot of friends who are teachers. I think, on the whole, they're underpaid and even more under-appreciated.

My point is that the snow weenieishness doesn't help your cause.

Teachers also get paid according to their time-- 50k or whatever the average pay is peanuts Down here, a teacher out of college gets 32k or so. Their average work week when they do work is 55 hours or so between prep time and teaching. I don't think its bad all they root for snow days.

[WxUSAF]

FWIW, GFS ensembles look decent. Can someone post the link to the ensemble means?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRS_12z/ensloopmref.html

[mitchnick]

fwiw, Euro is insisting on .02" qpf for BWI tomorrow

[ravensrule]

At hr 48 i MAY be right.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Where is the Euro play-by-play? I usually rely on Tombo in the NYC threads.

[mitchnick]

  On 1/6/2011 at 6:00 PM, WxUSAF said:

FWIW, GFS ensembles look decent. Can someone post the link to the ensemble means?

http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html

[ravensrule]

  On 1/6/2011 at 6:01 PM, DCTeacherman said:

Where is the Euro play-by-play? I usually rely on Tombo in the NYC threads.

Southern thread.

[mattie g]

  On 1/6/2011 at 5:57 PM, ravensrule said:

That may very well be, but i think the setup will still look decent. OTS is no big deal at this point, if it is still OTS on Saturday then i will jump ship.

I also expect an OTS solution, which would cause more alarm given the other model runs. The "seasonal trend" hasn't been good to us, so it'll rightly cause us to be gun-shy.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

12z hr 60 euro S/W in the sw. is a hair stronger the S/W in the nw. is a little further south east, and the pv over the great lakes is little further south

[ravensrule]

60 Might excite some of us.

[WxUSAF]

  On 1/6/2011 at 6:02 PM, mitchnick said:

Thanks. What's the link to that page?

[Midlo Snow Maker]

  On 1/6/2011 at 6:04 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said:

12z hr 60 euro S/W in the sw. is a hair stronger the S/W in the nw. is a little further south east, and the pv over the great lakes is little further south

same for hr 66

[Avdave]

  On 1/6/2011 at 6:00 PM, mitchnick said:

fwiw, Euro is insisting on .02" qpf for BWI tomorrow

and that is reaching too that .02 lol

[mitchnick]

  On 1/6/2011 at 6:02 PM, ravensrule said:

Southern thread.

with all the talk of cold on the Euro in the Southern thread, I seriously doubt it will be good for us

[mattie g]

  On 1/6/2011 at 6:04 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said:

12z hr 60 euro S/W in the sw. is a hair stronger the S/W in the nw. is a little further south east, and the pv over the great lakes is little further south

Not an expert, so the (likely incorrect) remark from me is: That's not what we want, is it?

[WVclimo]