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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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  On 1/6/2011 at 4:39 PM, mattie g said:

I actually want to keep it so if something good happens then I'll be surprised.

I prefer to toss the good runs and keep the bad ones. I'm a contrarian like that.

He wasn't even talking to you dude.

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  On 1/6/2011 at 4:40 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said:

i'm no met but the ukie at 72 has the low behind the S/W WTF?

post-4-0-18020700-1294332003.gif

Maybe that has to do with the northern s/w or perhaps a lee-side feature being enhanced by the s/w? I think the low off the TX coast is the real deal.

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I don't know why the panic and sense of dread is in this thread.

Did anybody here expect the models to show a sweet solution from 126 hours out until the storm happens? There are going to be a few more ups and downs. I'd start worrying when

a) there's a lock...no big trends/hiccups one way or the other

b.) we're within 72 hours

I'm willing to bet Mitchnick's paycheck that 18z will be different.

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  On 1/6/2011 at 5:11 PM, stormtracker said:

I don't know why the panic and sense of dread is in this thread.

Did anybody here expect the models to show a sweet solution from 126 hours out until the storm happens? There are going to be a few more ups and downs. I'd start worrying when

a) there's a lock...no big trends/hiccups one way or the other

b.) we're within 72 hours

I'm willing to bet Mitchnick's paycheck that 18z will be different.

wet blanket

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  On 1/6/2011 at 5:10 PM, Yeoman said:

Why must the weenies rehash this same line after every model run?

And I appreciate those who are clearly superior to the rest of us calling us out. Just a question... certainly the trends are not in our favor... one model run or not. That probably would've been a better answer.

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