12z ECMWF suggest we get close to the record high pressure in the cont US

[RaleighWx]

This link http://books.google....0states&f=false passed along to me by a colleague, says it was 1064mb back in 1983. If you know of a recent record that I missed feel free to pass it along.

Todays 12z ECMWF at 192 has a high of 1062mb in Montana. Many of you in your 30s or older probably remember the cold outbreak that month. I remember in my hometown of Hickory, NC hovering around 0 all day on Christmas Day.

Regardless of whether the pressure gets that high, the models have been pretty consistent in showing at least one 1050-1060mb type high descending into the US in the day 6-15 range. Most mild January forecasts including mine are in trouble

[mitchnick]

This link http://books.google....0states&f=false passed along to me by a colleague, says it was 1064mb back in 1983. If you know of a recent record that I missed feel free to pass it along.

Todays 12z ECMWF at 192 has a high of 1062mb in Montana. Many of you in your 30s or older probably remember the cold outbreak that month. I remember in my hometown of Hickory, NC hovering around 0 all day on Christmas Day.

remember it well

single digits around BWI

I even drove down to the shores of the Chesapeake Bay Christmas PM looking for Bay effect snow showers (no luck, though)

pretty windy too that day as well

in the end, however, wasted cold for the MA in a lousy winter until fluke March clipper blew up and nailed PHL north, but BWI did "OK" and better than originally forecasted

[pcbjr]

This link http://books.google....0states&f=false passed along to me by a colleague, says it was 1064mb back in 1983. If you know of a recent record that I missed feel free to pass it along.

Todays 12z ECMWF at 192 has a high of 1062mb in Montana. Many of you in your 30s or older probably remember the cold outbreak that month. I remember in my hometown of Hickory, NC hovering around 0 all day on Christmas Day.

Even down here we never cracked 30º for a couple days over that Christmas, and ice formed well off shore from the banks of the St. Johns River (Jacksonville). Doesn't look to match that (???).

[wxmx]

This link http://books.google....0states&f=false passed along to me by a colleague, says it was 1064mb back in 1983. If you know of a recent record that I missed feel free to pass it along.

Todays 12z ECMWF at 192 has a high of 1062mb in Montana. Many of you in your 30s or older probably remember the cold outbreak that month. I remember in my hometown of Hickory, NC hovering around 0 all day on Christmas Day.

I think Feb '89 was around 1060mb...not sure about Dec 89, it was probably close as well.

[Srain]

This link http://books.google....0states&f=false passed along to me by a colleague, says it was 1064mb back in 1983. If you know of a recent record that I missed feel free to pass it along.

Todays 12z ECMWF at 192 has a high of 1062mb in Montana. Many of you in your 30s or older probably remember the cold outbreak that month. I remember in my hometown of Hickory, NC hovering around 0 all day on Christmas Day.

Very close Allan. An interesting tidbit regarding 83 down here was the fact that Upper Galveston Bay had a thin sheet of ice across the shallows. Those were Amazing Arctic Air masses of 83 and 89 as well.

[anomalous]

Is there a better representation of slp out there?

[beavis1729]

To confirm the first post of the thread:

Per the attached link, the all-time record appears to be 31.42" (1064 mb) in Miles City, MT on 12/24/1983.

http://extremeweatherguide.com/records.asp

[MN Transplant]

To confirm the first post of the thread:

Per the attached link, the all-time record appears to be 31.42" (1064 mb) in Miles City, MT on 12/24/1983.

http://extremeweathe...com/records.asp

Brutal

[MN Transplant]

One slight different between the 192 panel of the ECMWF and the reanalysis for 12/24/83. In '83, there was a large area of -30°C 850s in the central US including St. Louis and KC. On the forecast maps from the Euro, there isn't a closed -30°C contour in the western hemisphere.

[tacoman25]

One slight different between the 192 panel of the ECMWF and the reanalysis for 12/24/83. In '83, there was a large area of -30°C 850s in the central US including St. Louis and KC. On the forecast maps from the Euro, there isn't a closed -30°C contour in the western hemisphere.

True...but the Euro has been consistently under-estimating cold for the U.S. this season.

[tmagan]

Brutal

You can see on the map northwesterly winds and warm-air advection over northern Alberta.

[aslkahuna]

I remember December 1983 well. I drove in Blizzard conditions from SLC to WMC, an ice storm in Reno and a major Sierra blizzard over Donner while going home for Christmas in Auburn CA.

Steve

[tacoman25]

Dec 1983 was absolutely ridiculous here. Denver didn't get above -4 from 12/21 to 12/24 and had six straight lows of -10 or colder.

[MN Transplant]

Dec 1983 was absolutely ridiculous here. Denver didn't get above -4 from 12/21 to 12/24 and had six straight lows of -10 or colder.

Minneapolis: 5 days in a week stretch didn't even make it to the single digits below zero

12/18/1983   -11   -24   	
12/19/1983   -11   -29   	
12/20/1983   1   -22   	
12/21/1983   11   -15   	
12/22/1983   -12   -20   	
12/23/1983   -17   -25   	
12/24/1983   -10   -25 

[tacoman25]

Minneapolis: 5 days in a week stretch didn't even make it to the single digits below zero

12/18/1983   -11   -24       
12/19/1983   -11   -29       
12/20/1983   1   -22       
12/21/1983   11   -15       
12/22/1983   -12   -20       
12/23/1983   -17   -25       
12/24/1983   -10   -25 

Wow, that's impressive. -8/-21 is a greater departure for Denver, though.

[nzucker]

One slight different between the 192 panel of the ECMWF and the reanalysis for 12/24/83. In '83, there was a large area of -30°C 850s in the central US including St. Louis and KC. On the forecast maps from the Euro, there isn't a closed -30°C contour in the western hemisphere.

The original outbreak that starts around Day 8 doesn't look historically severe in terms of absolute temperatures to me, but the extent of the arctic air is impressive. Widespread >-10C 850mb temperature anomalies west of the Mississippi:

Day 10 on the 12z ECM does suggest we may have some -30C 850s entering the CONUS if we get the polar vortex over Hudson Bay to descend:

[Amped]

Just to give you an idea, the 18z GFS shows a 1034MB low in W Central Canada. Wow

[Srain]

Thank for the thread sub title edit. Interesting pattern, IMO.

[aslkahuna]

I'm going to add another one to remember to 1983 and 1989. Try January 1962-a 1062.9 High in MT eventually overspread the whole lower 48. Fearsomely cold air into the Basin and interior WA/OR. Initially the high pressure to the east set up a Diablo wind situation which brought 77F highs to SFO and wildfires in the coast mountains. Later, a low bombing off the coast of NoCA dove into NV. The ULL with it had a strong jet max on the backside from the NE which with the surface system pulled very cold air from WA/OR/NV into CA which picked up moisture and with the dynamics from the ULL now moving SW towards SoCA resulted in thundersnow bringing snow to Fresno and sea level snow to the Bay Area. In the meantime, the gradient between strong High pressure in TX and the low to west backdoored arctic air into AZ resulting in a low temperature of -10F in Willcox in Cochise County a valley location. The same time, the high temperature of 68F in Yuma was the national high for the day. Looking at the current runs, to me it looks like dejá vu all over again. Difference this time is that we have model runs out for many days-in 1962 we had the barotropic and baroclinic single layer runs out to 72 hours only.

Steve

[Cheeznado]

00Z Euro much different- has a decent high but nowhere near 1060mb in the CONUS...,the models are having a lot of problems with consistency.

[A-L-E-X]

One slight different between the 192 panel of the ECMWF and the reanalysis for 12/24/83. In '83, there was a large area of -30°C 850s in the central US including St. Louis and KC. On the forecast maps from the Euro, there isn't a closed -30°C contour in the western hemisphere.

Looking at the data, which do you think was the most anomalous arctic outbreak?

1) January 1977

2) December 1980

3) December 1983

4) January 1985

5) January 1994

I vote #4, with #5 and #1 right behind it.

[tacoman25]

Looking at the data, which do you think was the most anomalous arctic outbreak?

1) January 1977

2) December 1980

3) December 1983

4) January 1985

5) January 1994

I vote #4, with #5 and #1 right behind it.

For the CONUS overall, I'd rank those:

1. 1983

2. 1985

3. 1977

4. 1994

5. 1980

[A-L-E-X]

For the CONUS overall, I'd rank those:

1. 1983

2. 1985

3. 1977

4. 1994

5. 1980

Thanks! Would Jan 2004 also make that list?

[tacoman25]

Thanks! Would Jan 2004 also make that list?

Nah, that effected a considerably smaller area. For the CONUS overall, Jan 2009 was more impressive than Jan 2004.

[A-L-E-X]

Nah, that effected a considerably smaller area. For the CONUS overall, Jan 2009 was more impressive than Jan 2004.

Yea, and actually Jan 2009 was a la nina too-- so the idea of a la nina always torching the east in Jan isnt as well correlated as some think.

[free_man]

1064

[wxmx]

For the CONUS overall, I'd rank those:

1. 1983

2. 1985

3. 1977

4. 1994

5. 1980

I would also put Dec 1989 in there

[meatwad]

Add Jan 1982 to the list too.

[wxmx]

The Grandaddy of all artic outbreaks is the infamous Feb 1899... I think it was a huge 1064+mb high.

[Srain]

Impressive...