Major east coast snowstorms and lunar cycles

[Roger Smith]

Testing for a map here, let me know ...

It shows the "astro-climatology" model grid for the lower 48 and adjacent s Canada ... features include:

timing lines 1 and 9, while 2 is just off to northeast of map grid.(these are N-S curving lines)

timing numbers for quarter-intervals, so timing lines marked tn 50, otherwise system runs 00 to 00

meteo-latitude, shown in degrees

two examples of positions in the system --

Denver and Little Rock

note Denver timing number 9.87, meteo-lat 43 deg, and Little Rock 1.11, 37 deg.

take a moment to confirm timing number goes directly from 9.99 to 1.00 (there are no positions 0 point anything)

finally, in orange, timing numbers 55 and 30 which have been the extremes since we began the agenda for timing "sector" one.

(definition, timing sector is the space between successive 00 timing number lines, and timing lines themselves are mid-points of timing sectors).

@ all rights reserved or I breaka you face.

[OKpowdah]

At the risk that this was "covered" while 1/12/2011 didn't reach KU criteria it came damn close.

1/12 was a KU

[Roger Smith]

Update on this winter analysis ... daily updates have been ongoing in editing the agenda contained in post #15 of the thread.

This map shows the ongoing shift in position of the events relative to timing line one since January 1st. The map shows timing line 1 (the NNW-SSE line through Lake Michigan and across SC into the Atlantic), and a track of observed event positions, slightly smoothed, from the various almost daily events as analyzed in post #15. Events that may have been further west associated with timing lines 8 or 9 are not shown here.

The general trend is a gradual westward shift through January, ending with events around Jan 22-25 in the timing number range 30-40 (on the timing line would be timing number 50), then a rather rapid transition east through a counter-clockwise loop towards northern Florida and New England, with the Feb 3 new moon event showing a high (eastward) timing number of about 72, then a gradual return to the vicinity of the timing line with many events in February having timing numbers 55-60 ... a trend north also in mid-February ... and more recently, another swoop south and then east with the current position of the ever-changing event locator near New York state. Current models when compared to the agenda (once again see post 15 for future events) indicate that timing number may stay higher than 60 for a while.

These variations are clearly the missing link for the theory, since timing has already been demonstrated. Position changes for events may be a complex response to variations in lunar orbit, solar system mass balance, and global climate patterns. One principle that has been observed to "work" in predicting timing number shifts is that timing number tends to increase before a Mercury inferior conjunction and then timing number decreases (events fall further west) after that event, which takes place every 116 days on average (with some variation due to Mercury's eccentric orbit). Dec 20 and Apr 9 are the dates for this event this winter. There is also a principle that timing number tends to increase during and after new moon, and decrease during and after full moon, in response to the shift in mass balance of the earth-Moon system. The north and south shifts may have a relationship to other orbital variables as well as to global climate processes and solar system field sectors. For future reference it should be noted that some strong events like hurricanes are analyzed as transient events from another set of interactions not part of this lunar event timing system, and so their timing or position will respond to different sets of data.

Currently it is "N Max" with a weak event on timing line one, but stronger events near timing lines 2 and 3 in the western and eastern Atlantic, as well as on timing line 8 offshore from B.C. The event on timing line 9 is the developing low in Colorado.

Map of this winter's event positions relative to timing line 1 follows (would be interested in hearing from anyone familiar with MJO analysis if this set of loops has any similarity to that approach) ...

[Roger Smith]

Updating the map to reflect changes March 13-17. Timing line one actual position is returning west and is today at the equilibrium position. Models suggest events 19th-21st will be west of timing number 50 at around 40 or so. Each month Jan to March, the timing line has shifted back west around full moon and has shifted east around new moon. This is postulated to be a response to shifting position of earth-Moon barycenter.

I am also posting a diagram of the strong gravitational wave potential from mass "axes" in solar system around April 3-4 for future reference. While there is much talk of the "supermoon" on the 19th, I would be equally or more concerned about potential for earthquake, volcanic and atmospheric energy peaks with these gravitational alignments on April 3-4 with the new moon.

(key to April 1-5 diagram) schematic diagram of earth and moon moving forward (down on the diagram) through various mass "axes" ... the first is Jupiter-Saturn axis which earth crosses April 2nd, and which moved through the Sun earlier this year and now misses Sun slightly to the earth-January side of the solar system, then the earth-moon-Sun axis which is reached with new moon Apr 3 1433z, then the adjusted solar system mass "equator" which is still very close to the Saturn-Sun alignment due to the offset of Uranus, Neptune and Venus, traversed by the earth just after the new moon around 21z April 3, and finally the extended Jupiter-Sun alignment which earth reaches on April 6th. This is a lot of potential bow shock or gravitational wave interference setting up for around April 3 and I think this is more significant than the supermoon since these solar system mass axes will be in almost the same positions well ahead of the earth-moon system on March 19th. These mass axes only shift very gradually since Jupiter and Saturn are the primary sources of differential angular momentum. For reference, Uranus is just about opposite Saturn and was recently overtaken by Jupiter, while Neptune is about 30 degrees behind those two planets now after being overtaken by Uranus in 1993. Venus is also on the lower side of the diagram's extended field and currently located out towards earth's June-July position. Venus is going to move through the "mass equator" in about two months, whereas Mercury moved through it (on the far side of the Sun from us) around the time of the Japanese earthquake (hmm) and meanwhile Mars is also approaching the mass equator. Given my research results showing possible gravitational wave activity scaled to sixth root of mass over distance, these interactions may be far more vigorous than Newtonian physics alone would suggest. Basically the solar system is about to unleash some fairly concentrated interference patterns for the earth to handle, and the way the past two years have been going, I have to wonder if we aren't about to see another major event.

[Roger Smith]

Final Report on this winter and early spring analysis

_________________________________________________

The daily analysis has been continuously updated in post #15 of this thread.

With so much information and detail, there are many ways to study this period for any signs of regular "signals" in this sector of the atmosphere defined as timing sector one.

The following map is a first approximation of one principle that has been derived. Taking the 27.32-day sidereal month of lunar declination, and considering also the position of full and new moon events, the various lunar events over four cycles averaged out for position conform generally to the loop around timing line one shown in the map below.

The map shows timing line one's average position (tn 50) and its average for the period, timing number 45. In the theory being developed, there is already a postulation that timing lines drift around slowly in terms of equilibrium locations. A study of the Toronto data from 1841 to 2010 suggested by signal analysis that timing line one might have been further west in the period 1850 to 1890 than at other times. This was based on a longer lag time from events to signals at Toronto which is almost always some distance east of timing line one even over short-term oscillations. As explained in the text of this thread, timing lines are postulated to oscillate east-west over monthly or annual cycles related to lunar and planetary positions in the solar system. The map shows a tendency for the lunar events to oscillate north-south with declination of the Moon (northwest-southeast given the curved nature of the timing line), and east-west with the logic being a westward shift around full moon and an eastward shift around new moon (it is not postulated that the declination cycle is controlling the east-west oscillation, that is a function of how full and new moon occur in the declination cycle at this time of the year).

The letters on the curve for mean lunar event positions would indicate the N Max, S Max and perigee at this point in a cycle of 8.86 years.

(will post the April agenda separately)

.

[Roger Smith]

Here is the agenda for April 2011, starting with the April 3 events that are already discussed in post #15, and then moving on to show events for the rest of the month. This post will be edited daily as necessary to discuss the events near timing line one. Timing line one is currently analyzed at timing number 40 and may drift further west at times this month.

April 3 -- 15z new moon, SO, JC major event ... see post 15 for full discussion.

April 7 -- 14z to 02z 8th, A events ... weak lows (int 2) moving through Ohio valley, timing number near 50.

April 10 -- 00z N Max ... strong low developing SD-MN border heading for WI by late 10th, intensity 4, timing number 37. Spring N Max events in research have often been a bit later to arrive on timing line, in my forecasting model I usually add 12h to the "effective" time and then the opposite effect is seen in autumn.

Note, statistically the N Max lunar event is the most active severe weather producer of all separated events, but in 2011 the overlap of J,S and Sp events would favour those merged events especially as they are happening close to full or new moon events. But N Max is a reliable severe weather producer. The next one will be May 7th.

April 11 -- 21z .... a weak secondary event that showed up in March and is labelled GC, postulated to be the gravitational effects of stars in the zone from Gemini to Procyon. Listing this to account for the weak low following the N Max low in western Canada. .... (added Apr 12) ... event verified as two separate waves in KY-WV and n MB near timing number 45 at event time, now (18z 12th) slowly pushing east through VA and nw ON. These have intensity 2-3. This GC event seems to be getting slightly stronger in recent years from comparison with old research data but was originally identified when I started my research in the early 1980s. Possibly this event maxes out when lunar declination moves to lower values through the N Max phase of the 18.6 year cycle. This could be due to closer approach to larger gravitational sources (in the alignment sense rather than distance which of course undergoes no significant change).

April 14 -- 06z ... RC event (+ weak NO) ... This has turned out to be a frontal wave located in southern WI at about timing number 47. Intensity 1.5, this feature is really just a leading wave for the developing major event on the 17th, and also one can see the moderate cluster listed below for the 15th forming up in Kansas ahead of the main action in nw Texas currently.

April 15 -- 00z VO, 12z MaO, 23z UO ... all rather weak events, expected to show up as warm frontal waves for stronger event on 17th ... these energy waves are represented by the dying phases of overnight convection ahead of the low pressure center (which itself is the following event) ... as these have been located in e IL, w IN, central KY the timing number at present is about 45. Intensity has been high but the events are too close to the energy peak below to separate out what part of the intensity is independently associated with only today's peaks. Setting the combined energy level at 6 today. The theory would suggest the event would be at 2-3 if it only had today's energy peaks, and at 5-6 if it had only the next set of energy peaks.

April 17 -- 08z ... SC event, + 12z JO event + 21z SpC (with perigee at 06z) then full moon 18th - 03z. ... likely to be one complex event. ... timing number has apparently increased with strong events now forming up in NC-SC heading northeast in phase with the timing of the surface low in s.w. MI ... estimate timing number for SC+JO event will be 55-60 later tonight. Could be seeing a re-set of the system with SpC + full producing separate system later Sunday into early Monday ... intensity continues 5-6 for today and tonight. Will be producing an updated map of event location tracking after the full moon event is logged.

Full moon event was analyzed as wave near RFD moving east, intensity 2, timing number 45. The stronger event forming up on 18th in plains states will become the A event.

April 20 -- 03z to 21z ... A events ... location central MO on 19th at 18z ... intensity 3.5, heading east. Report to be updated 06z. ... timing number continues 45 as event in western IN at 03z, trailing wave across southeast with similar timing later 20th, intensity 4.5 as of 20:03z.

April 23 -- 12z ... S Max ... at event time, a series of frontal waves from WI southeast to KY, timing number 47-50 and intensity around 3, had been 4-5 earlier (tornadic outbreak around STL 23:00-03z).

April 27 -- 10z ... RO + NC ... event was located in MI with intensity 4 and timing number 55. This is part of a larger complex of events that seem to be responding to the energy peak on May 1st for position on timing line 2. J-field energy peak noted also. The analysis shows that earth entered the J-3 field sector recently and that J-field energy may now become dominant over lunar-geomagnetic for a month or two. Peaks in J-field energy occur at regular intervals of about 3.55 days.

April 30 ... 04z ... UC, then 23z VC ... these were the weak events forming warm frontal waves ahead of the main event below, timing number near 50, intensity 2-3.

May 1 ... 08z SO event, 19z JC, 20z MaC, 2nd 03z SpO ... likely to be a very strong event. ... this plays out as the strong event phased in two segments, the snowstorm over MB, MN and nw ON, and the severe weather in KY, IN and OH. Timing number set at 50 and intensity 4-5. The trailing wave in Texas-Arkansas is the next event (for timing line 1).

May 3 ... 07z ... new moon ... rather weak wave located in e KY phased with another wave in nw ON on timing line one so that timing number set at 50, intensity of southern wave 2.5 and northern wave about 1.5.

May 4 ... 06z to 20z ... A events ... weak frontal waves moving east through IA, WI with timing number 45 at event times, intensity 2.

May 7 ... 15z N Max (effective time set at 03z May 8) ... this turned out to be a frontal wave moving through IL and IN on Saturday 7th, timing number 50, intensity 2. A much stronger event formed on timing line 9 near the ID-WY border and is moving slowly east across WY and SD, intensity 5.

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This agenda will be edited with comments on each event as we go forward. An agenda for May 8 to end of June will follow.