bluehens Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Not sure if this was posted but its pretty interesting.......throws out a reference to a track left of Feb. 78....does anybody have a map of storm totals from that? EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 229 PM EST MON JAN 03 2011 VALID 12Z THU JAN 06 2011 - 12Z MON JAN 10 2011 ...FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION... THE MAIN ALTERATION TO THE UPDATED PRELIM PROGS WAS TO ADJUST A POSSIBLE MAJOR STORM SWWD ALONG THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST IN THE DAY 4-6 FRI-SUN TIME FRAME. 12Z/03 MODEL CONSENSUS LACKS GOOD AGREEMENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS/UKMET ARE STILL QUITE INTENSE WITH THE DEPTH OF THE SYS. THE MANUAL FINAL SURFACE PROGS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE DEPTH THEY SHOWED IN THE UPDATED PRELIM. WE WERE INFLUENCED IN THIS REGARD BY THE ECMWF PLAYING UP A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT IMPULSE MOVING THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC VORTEX CENTERED OVER NRN PA/SRN NY STATE NEXT WEEKEND. MORE ON 12Z MODELS: THE LATEST GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS REMAIN CLUSTERED TO THE N OF LATITUDE 40 DEGREES WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC ENERGY DROPPING SE FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THEN TURNING EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES LAKES TOWARDS MA/RI/CAPE COD. SUCH A TRACK WOULD BE A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE FEB 6 1978 TRACK DESCRIBED EARLIER. THE NEW GFS HAS TRENDED S OF ITS 00Z RUN SAT-SUN WITH ITS MAIN UPPER ENERGY CROSSING SRN NY/SRN NEW ENG...KEEPING THE ENERGY ABOVE LATITUDE 40. THE NEW CANADIAN IS ON THE N SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND THE NEW UKMET JUST A TAD TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS SAT-SUN. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MAIN ENERGY ALONG LATITUDE 40 N OF ITS PRIOR 00Z RUN. STILL LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL SNOWSTORM FOR SRN NEW ENG THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT LESS RISK OF IT EXTENDING S INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. RAUSCH/FLOOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Not sure if this was posted but its pretty interesting.......throws out a reference to a track left of Feb. 78....does anybody have a map of storm totals from that? i think this is the snow map not entirely sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Not sure if this was posted but its pretty interesting.......throws out a reference to a track left of Feb. 78....does anybody have a map of storm totals from that? That's the famous storm that killed SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeastern_United_States_blizzard_of_1978 Not sure if this was posted but its pretty interesting.......throws out a reference to a track left of Feb. 78....does anybody have a map of storm totals from that? EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 229 PM EST MON JAN 03 2011 VALID 12Z THU JAN 06 2011 - 12Z MON JAN 10 2011 ...FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION... THE MAIN ALTERATION TO THE UPDATED PRELIM PROGS WAS TO ADJUST A POSSIBLE MAJOR STORM SWWD ALONG THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST IN THE DAY 4-6 FRI-SUN TIME FRAME. 12Z/03 MODEL CONSENSUS LACKS GOOD AGREEMENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS/UKMET ARE STILL QUITE INTENSE WITH THE DEPTH OF THE SYS. THE MANUAL FINAL SURFACE PROGS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE DEPTH THEY SHOWED IN THE UPDATED PRELIM. WE WERE INFLUENCED IN THIS REGARD BY THE ECMWF PLAYING UP A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT IMPULSE MOVING THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC VORTEX CENTERED OVER NRN PA/SRN NY STATE NEXT WEEKEND. MORE ON 12Z MODELS: THE LATEST GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS REMAIN CLUSTERED TO THE N OF LATITUDE 40 DEGREES WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC ENERGY DROPPING SE FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THEN TURNING EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES LAKES TOWARDS MA/RI/CAPE COD. SUCH A TRACK WOULD BE A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE FEB 6 1978 TRACK DESCRIBED EARLIER. THE NEW GFS HAS TRENDED S OF ITS 00Z RUN SAT-SUN WITH ITS MAIN UPPER ENERGY CROSSING SRN NY/SRN NEW ENG...KEEPING THE ENERGY ABOVE LATITUDE 40. THE NEW CANADIAN IS ON THE N SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND THE NEW UKMET JUST A TAD TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS SAT-SUN. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MAIN ENERGY ALONG LATITUDE 40 N OF ITS PRIOR 00Z RUN. STILL LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL SNOWSTORM FOR SRN NEW ENG THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT LESS RISK OF IT EXTENDING S INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. RAUSCH/FLOOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Thanks. I know the storm and lived through it in SNJ but didn't have quick access to a snowmap. That's the famous storm that killed SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 For those who are interested, three pages of photos from that blizzard can be found here. The blizzard of '78 was a remarkable storm for wind, total snowfall, and the storm's long duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Just to clarify 1st storm = Clipper/inverted trough at hr 120 2nd = OTS at hr 162 3rd storm = Big hit at around hr 210 this is all going change by 00z, the pattern is so fragile..I think all the possible solutions are being thrown at us right now Wxrisk.com 12Z EURO for 2nd run in a row and 3rd in last 4.. has significant East Coast low developing along or Just off SC coast JAN 11 then undergoes rapid development so that by JAN 12 it is 100 miles east of CAPE MAY. FULL UPDATE 430-500PM ON WEB SITE HM also liked this timeframe for a storm as well. huh? wouldn't JAN 11 be ~hr 162? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 NE PA got it pretty bad with that storm... nice shot of 20-30" here. That's the famous storm that killed SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 MHO is that from your area points ne is still under the very real threat of KU magnitude event.....obviously potential is greater out this way. I would not want to be anywhere sw of NYC.....at least until the next Miller A HECS several days later. I don't buy the EURO and believe that if it were not too slow phasing the PV in, then we'd be drilling for oil under LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 huh? wouldn't JAN 11 be ~hr 162? he must have gotten mixed up with the 2nd and 3rd storm 00z last night the 2nd storm hit, 12z today the 2nd storm missed, but the 3rd one hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 huh? wouldn't JAN 11 be ~hr 162? yea, hr 162 the storm is over the se coast. Once the plains storm or energy comes east a new low forms off hse jan 11-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 like 1-2 What will the ratios be with this storm?? Could be quite high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 MHO is that from your area points ne is still under the very real threat of KU magnitude event.....obviously potential is greater out this way. I would not want to be anywhere sw of NYC.....at least until the next Miller A HECS several days later. I don't buy the EURO and believe that if it were not too slow phasing the PV in, then we'd be drilling for oil under LI. agreed, nyc north has the best shot with the miller b, but i wouldn't rule phl out yet. Honestly, im just happy with 1-3 from the clipper that gets the miller b going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 DGEX is a decent hit for NE PA, NYC, Eastern PA, Eastern Jersey and LI. Massive hit for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 agreed, nyc north has the best shot with the miller b, but i wouldn't rule phl out yet. Honestly, im just happy with 1-3 from the clipper that gets the miller b going. I'd be suprised if Philly saw greater than 6".....NYC, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfreak09 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hey- usually just lurk around, and been busy here at work... can someone clarify.. when are these storms for? i keep hearing a few diff threats, but am getting confused... what is the deal with the weekend storm? from staten island here..... thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What will the ratios be with this storm?? Could be quite high? looks like -8 to -10 850s...surface temps are in the low to mid 30s in se pa...with your area in the upper 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'd be suprised if Philly saw greater than 6".....NYC, no. i would be to, but i still think its way to early to rule out anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hey- usually just lurk around, and been busy here at work... can someone clarify.. when are these storms for? i keep hearing a few diff threats, but am getting confused... what is the deal with the weekend storm? from staten island here..... thanks Just to clarify 1st storm = Clipper/inverted trough at hr 120 2nd = OTS at hr 162 3rd storm = Big hit at around hr 210 this is all going change by 00z, the pattern is so fragile..I think all the possible solutions are being thrown at us right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'd be suprised if Philly saw greater than 6".....NYC, no. Keep us updated on your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Keep us updated on your thoughts. LOL I'm not trying to sound important.....just offering a humble opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hey- usually just lurk around, and been busy here at work... can someone clarify.. when are these storms for? i keep hearing a few diff threats, but am getting confused... what is the deal with the weekend storm? from staten island here..... thanks first threat is this weekend with a clipper or miller b potential...2nd threat is in the tues-thurs period next week. For this weekend storm you have a good shot at the miller b if it forms given your latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 In case anyone cares, here is the total precip from the 18z Dgex: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 In case anyone cares, here is the total precip from the 18z Dgex: lock it up, ill take that in a minute. gen 3-5 inches, to mask this brown paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 In case anyone cares, here is the total precip from the 18z Dgex: 1978 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 LOL I'm not trying to sound important.....just offering a humble opinion. I wasn't being nasty. I like your thoughts. I have read the NE forum frequently and you are one who i believe knows what you are talking about. Honestly down here i'm hoping for an inch or two and then await the bigger threat early/mid next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 In case anyone cares, here is the total precip from the 18z Dgex: Posted Image all from the Clipper? Or does it have an inverted trough? Or is the Miller B close to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 1978 redux. Yeah. Wow. Boston area would be buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfreak09 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 first threat is this weekend with a clipper or miller b potential...2nd threat is in the tues-thurs period next week. For this weekend storm you have a good shot at the miller b if it forms given your latitude. Thanks tombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 In case anyone cares, here is the total precip from the 18z Dgex: Wow. That is one heck of a precip maxima in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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