am19psu Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You werent here for last night's run were you? That was a marathon too lol. And I thought you were a tropical wx guy, but I guess this kind of pattern is like our own version of the 2005 tropical season in terms of tracking storms and potential storms. I come into work at 6am, so all the theatrics were already over by the time I saw the Euro Tropical is my passion, but I'm still a national forecaster living/working outside of Philly, so I've got to be on top of this stuff too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 like 1-2 thanks bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I come into work at 6am, so all the theatrics were already over by the time I saw the Euro Tropical is my passion, but I'm still a national forecaster living/working outside of Philly, so I've got to be on top of this stuff too. The 0z euro was akin to Donna from 1960 which would have made pretty much any weenie from the SE to the NE happy with its track. Im glad it happened on the 0z because if that had been on there right now, this board would be slower than what the internet was like back in the days of 14K modems lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 yeah agree, pattern is ripe for multiple snow threats, but expect major waffling on the models over the next few days... Yeah, I have to say following the models is almost as much fun as actually tracking a real storm (especially this year, with all the potential and suspense-- even in the near term.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Gotta say, 23" in the bank, multiple snow threats on the horizon, only early Jan, no end in sight for the general pattern, chance of keeping snow cover for a long time since Dec 26th....Im liking this winter so far... Yeah, this winter has been awesome so far and looks like that might continue, with a sustained cold weather pattern and multiple storm threats. I hope we get everyone in on the action with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 That's at least three runs over the past two or three days that bring borderline warning criteria snows to New York City (.7), Long Island (.75+)..and areas north and east into Southern New England. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Just to clarify 1st storm = Clipper/inverted trough at hr 120 2nd = OTS at hr 162 3rd storm = Big hit at around hr 210 this is all going change by 00z, the pattern is so fragile..I think all the possible solutions are being thrown at us right now Totally agree. People need to understand that in this type of set up with a very misplaced polar vortex and vorts spinning around it that all models have an extremely difficult time nailing down solutions in the medium and long range time frame. Getting hung up on details now would just be a waste of energy. Focus on the pattern and understand that it's ripe for good storms, and then get excited when its 1-3 days away and we are still looking at a potential threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Looks like this winter will be an inside 48 range for any system, models having difficulty locking on in mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I've got a 5:35 flight from ACY on Thursday night and I have to admit I'm a tad worried about this one. Seems like this winter will be remembered as the season of poorly modeled bombs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I've got a 5:35 flight from ACY on Thursday night and I have to admit I'm a tad worried about this one. Seems like this winter will be remembered as the season of poorly modeled bombs Not that the pattern is the same nor the types of storms we're seeing, but wasnt 1993-94 the same in terms of long and mid range model inaccuracy that came into much better focus as the events were upon us? That season it seemed like the forecasts were always for changeovers and it may have mixed, but we rarely (or not at all) ever changed over to rain. The two bombs in early February were also not well forecast until right near event time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I've got a 5:35 flight from ACY on Thursday night and I have to admit I'm a tad worried about this one. Seems like this winter will be remembered as the season of poorly modeled bombs U could be right, wouldn't be shocked if at least one of these Threats Elevate from a Light/Moderate snow event to an all out Bomb within 48 hrs of the event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That's at least three runs over the past two or three days that bring borderline warning criteria snows to New York City (.7), Long Island (.75+)..and areas north and east into Southern New England. I'll take it. that plus sustained cold and little to no chance of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 anyone else see the west coast at h5? at 222-240? sooooooooo what's out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 sooooooooo what's out there? A huge ridge that goes from Baja to the Arctic Circle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well that winter was just insane in terms of the shear number of events we had from late Dec through early march. Except for one week I think we had at least a 2" event every week, but only a handful were truly all snow events. And of course philly on south it was a very different story. I think my school closed 14 or 15 times that year since just about every storm was on a weekday.. Not that the pattern is the same nor the types of storms we're seeing, but wasnt 1993-94 the same in terms of long and mid range model inaccuracy that came into much better focus as the events were upon us? That season it seemed like the forecasts were always for changeovers and it may have mixed, but we rarely (or not at all) ever changed over to rain. The two bombs in early February were also not well forecast until right near event time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This setup does not bode well for DC/BALT/PHL, historically speaking. Looking at the possibility of a subtropical distrubance with an established ridge out west near the 11th-13th posing a real threat to the mid-atlantic, but obviously what comes of this weekend will have a major influence on this. Fun times lie ahead! Somebody should start a thread for 11-13th potential, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Go for it......it's the bigger threat further south. Somebody should start a thread for 11-13th potential, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dale803 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Ruiner Somebody should start a thread for 11-13th potential, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Ruiner LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dale803 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 LOL! im just playing around.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 what a crazy ridge, could you imagine tracking a s/w from Siberia down to the plains, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You're a broken record and I promise people are beginning to get annoyed with you. report button....I use it and so can you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 the euro ens are about 300 miles east of the bm with the weekend event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 the euro ens are about 300 miles east of the bm with the weekend event Tombo, What about the clipper? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Tombo, What about the clipper? Rossi im not sure, i just saw that in the sne thread...i dont have access to the euro ens outside of Allan's site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 There's nothing on the ECM mean. I didn't look at the members. The Blue Norther is pretty ridiculous on the mean though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 im not sure, i just saw that in the sne thread...i dont have access to the euro ens outside of Allan's site. Yeah spag plots look a bit better, but all the heavy QPF is way offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Wxrisk.com 12Z EURO for 2nd run in a row and 3rd in last 4.. has significant East Coast low developing along or Just off SC coast JAN 11 then undergoes rapid development so that by JAN 12 it is 100 miles east of CAPE MAY. FULL UPDATE 430-500PM ON WEB SITE HM also liked this timeframe for a storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 fwiw, granted its the nam at hr 84, but its digging the pv a lot further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 sim radar at hr 84 of the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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