Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,600
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

NYC/PHL January 7-9 Potential Part I


earthlight

Recommended Posts

through hr 144

nyc .6-.7

ttn .5

phl .25-.3

hazleton .3-.4

can u tell how much is from the inverted trough and how much falls just from the clipper? I know they're related features, but at this point we should be considering an inverted trough a last-minute bonus and not relying on it.

sounds like the clipper is a lot more juiced than previous runs though... any speculations as to why that is? i would love a clipper than doesn't dry up over the mnts and instead gives us 2-4" widespread

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Yeah that's a shocker

great model analysis.

the s/w that is on the west coast waters is driving south undercutting the ridge while energy rounds about over the west ridge. seems like that s/w will just wobble around for a few days before heading in the lower 4 corners. both the gfs and euro seem to have a handle on it. problem is, this side of the atlantic isnt "ready" yet. we're basically reloading the very good pattern here so imo, a big storm looks bleak. a snow chance is there though. kinda like the dec 19th OTS system. theres gonna be merge of the streams but it might be too late for the MA, but i like the chances beyond this weekend.

I

Link to comment
Share on other sites

can u tell how much is from the inverted trough and how much falls just from the clipper? I know they're related features, but at this point we should be considering an inverted trough a last-minute bonus and not relying on it.

sounds like the clipper is a lot more juiced than previous runs though... any speculations as to why that is? i would love a clipper than doesn't dry up over the mnts and instead gives us 2-4" widespread

clipper is prob majority of the precip for the phl area.. we get into some action on the inverted trof but thats more centered towards nyc and ttn area

Link to comment
Share on other sites

not on this run

the winners on the run is nyc/long island and extreme southern New Englan with the inverted trough, the coastal misses everyone just about

Inverted troughs are a low likelihood event here and hard to forecast from this time range, but we'll see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

not on this run

the winners on the run is nyc/long island and extreme southern New Englan with the inverted trough, the coastal misses everyone just about

Nope. Based on 120hr I thought the SLP would get captured off CC as the mid-level center consolidated just offshore. It's nice that most of us scape out some decent QPF despite a disjointed and unideal solution.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not PHL/NYC related, but look at the Blue Norther shooting down the lee of the Rockies at 174. 1068 high up in the NW Territories.

the difference at 174 between the 0z run and 12z run are ridiculous out west/into canada.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seeing such drastic shifts from run to run just shows the volatility of such a pattern with so many players. From a PV dip so far south to a robust clipper/inverted trough feature signals towards how a HIgh Impact and Low Impact event are still on the table, especially the 12z GFS run moving towards last night's 0z Euro run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro shows first storm with not even a whole lot of impact on SNE now but bombing out still off of ME. Hope it does....I agree with Wes as my eyes are on the storm that follows.

Good, but let's hope for a big storm to the north so we get a strong 50 50 low in place prior to next weeks system. That's what I'm hoping for. Do you think now some will say the euro has trended towards the gfs?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm seeing MSLP's out in that region on models other than the GGEM that always does that, which I haven't seen before.

Yeah, sorry, I was looking at the Euro. I should have been more clear. The GFS has some ridiculous SLP up there too. This is what I meant by "one for the ages" in the medium range thread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...