Thunder Road Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 through hr 144 nyc .6-.7 ttn .5 phl .25-.3 hazleton .3-.4 can u tell how much is from the inverted trough and how much falls just from the clipper? I know they're related features, but at this point we should be considering an inverted trough a last-minute bonus and not relying on it. sounds like the clipper is a lot more juiced than previous runs though... any speculations as to why that is? i would love a clipper than doesn't dry up over the mnts and instead gives us 2-4" widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Tombo can we please get some Baltimore QPF, thank you. Sorry you had to see the Eagles lose yesterday even though it meant nothing. .16" at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Tombo can we please get some Baltimore QPF, thank you. Sorry you had to see the Eagles lose yesterday even though it meant nothing. balt and dc are .1-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah that's a shocker great model analysis. the s/w that is on the west coast waters is driving south undercutting the ridge while energy rounds about over the west ridge. seems like that s/w will just wobble around for a few days before heading in the lower 4 corners. both the gfs and euro seem to have a handle on it. problem is, this side of the atlantic isnt "ready" yet. we're basically reloading the very good pattern here so imo, a big storm looks bleak. a snow chance is there though. kinda like the dec 19th OTS system. theres gonna be merge of the streams but it might be too late for the MA, but i like the chances beyond this weekend. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 thats pretty good. impressive... Sound like a 3-6 to 4-8 type of Event..The type of Events that have been Rare around as lately most are the All or nothing type bombs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 can u tell how much is from the inverted trough and how much falls just from the clipper? I know they're related features, but at this point we should be considering an inverted trough a last-minute bonus and not relying on it. sounds like the clipper is a lot more juiced than previous runs though... any speculations as to why that is? i would love a clipper than doesn't dry up over the mnts and instead gives us 2-4" widespread clipper is prob majority of the precip for the phl area.. we get into some action on the inverted trof but thats more centered towards nyc and ttn area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 not on this run the winners on the run is nyc/long island and extreme southern New Englan with the inverted trough, the coastal misses everyone just about Inverted troughs are a low likelihood event here and hard to forecast from this time range, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Sound like a 3-6 to 4-8 type of Event..The type of Events that have been Rare around as lately most are the All or nothing type bombs.. might be the best of both worlds, if we can get the biggie for Jan 11-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 DCA-.16" IAD-.15" IUD-Nothing, its in a snow hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 2nd storm is sliding out, new storm over the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 its because the first storm is weaker that the 2nd one may be huge the second storm is what, 3-4 days behind the first one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 not on this run the winners on the run is nyc/long island and extreme southern New Englan with the inverted trough, the coastal misses everyone just about Nope. Based on 120hr I thought the SLP would get captured off CC as the mid-level center consolidated just offshore. It's nice that most of us scape out some decent QPF despite a disjointed and unideal solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 168 has the gulf storm sliding ots...while the plains storm is gathering moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 through hr 144 nyc .6-.7 ttn .5 phl .25-.3 hazleton .3-.4 Sounds like a more robust/southern GGEM Solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Not PHL/NYC related, but look at the Blue Norther shooting down the lee of the Rockies at 174. 1068 high up in the NW Territories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Not PHL/NYC related, but look at the Blue Norther shooting down the lee of the Rockies at 174. 1068 high up in the NW Territories. the difference at 174 between the 0z run and 12z run are ridiculous out west/into canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 the difference at 174 between the 0z run and 12z run are ridiculous out west/into canada. yea it basically has no southern storm anymore, its now just the plains storm and thats getting sheared some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What does the low in the gulf low does that's forming at hr 150? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Seeing such drastic shifts from run to run just shows the volatility of such a pattern with so many players. From a PV dip so far south to a robust clipper/inverted trough feature signals towards how a HIgh Impact and Low Impact event are still on the table, especially the 12z GFS run moving towards last night's 0z Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What does the low in the gulf low does that's forming at hr 150? goes out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What does the low in the gulf low does that's forming at hr 150? slides east to just off the se coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 198 the plains moisture has now converged with the storm off the se coast...wide area of lgt precip from plains to se coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Euro shows first storm with not even a whole lot of impact on SNE now but bombing out still off of ME. Hope it does....I agree with Wes as my eyes are on the storm that follows. Good, but let's hope for a big storm to the north so we get a strong 50 50 low in place prior to next weeks system. That's what I'm hoping for. Do you think now some will say the euro has trended towards the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 looks as if by 192, the euro wants to break down the NAO, and pop the se ridge into the equation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Not PHL/NYC related, but look at the Blue Norther shooting down the lee of the Rockies at 174. 1068 high up in the NW Territories. I'm seeing MSLP's out in that region on models other than the GGEM that always does that, which I haven't seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 looks as if by 192, the euro wants to break down the NAO, and pop the se ridge into the equation i see a huge trough over the east with a storm off Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 204 has a new low popping off hse...lgt to mod precip for cnetral and southern va.... mod precip se va and ne nc... lgt precip bout to m/d line, with it extending north into pa from mdt west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 210 sub 1004 low 75 miles east of mouth of ches lgt to mod precip ric to phl...mod precip delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm seeing MSLP's out in that region on models other than the GGEM that always does that, which I haven't seen before. Yeah, sorry, I was looking at the Euro. I should have been more clear. The GFS has some ridiculous SLP up there too. This is what I meant by "one for the ages" in the medium range thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 216 sub 996 low about 100 miles east of toms riiver...mod precip balt to mt tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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