tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 the pv over maine, has moved west and is now situated about 150 miles or so north of lake huron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 looks like the 0z euro was a blip. Maybe but also when the same model is so vastly different in the matter of 12hrs tells U they are having a hard time putting together all the data thus spitting out all different solutions from run to run..As one met wrote with a setup like this best bet would be wait til all the data is better sampled as we get closer to the event which would be Wed night or Thur.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This setup does not bode well for DC/BALT/PHL, historically speaking. Looking at the possibility of a subtropical distrubance with an established ridge out west near the 11th-13th posing a real threat to the mid-atlantic, but obviously what comes of this weekend will have a major influence on this. Fun times lie ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 If your going to dismiss a storm after one bad model run you don't belong here...just the same as going all out just because of one great run. We still have plenty of time to go on this one and if the past storms this year are any indication...were not going to know for sure until the short term. If anything...what we can take from this run is exactly how fragile the various components are and how a slight difference in timing can mean the difference between a bomb and nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Biggest differences between the GFS and Euro seem to come early at around hour 72. If you look North of Saskatchewan into the Northern Territories, the differences become very evident, and they are important: --The GFS tries to connect the PNA ridge and the retrograding block, basically splitting the PV = stronger block with the piece of the PV allowed to 'dig' much farther South in response to the strengthening +PNA (reminds me of the ridge that developed in the post Christmas storm recently) --In the same area, the Euro wants none of that with the PV staying together and not allowing the two ridges to connect for more amplification. This is where we are seeing the biggest variances on guidance right now and the area we should be keying on in subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 storng clipper sub 996 over south bend indiana, lgt to mod precip southern wis, northern il and northern and central indiana... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 storng clipper sub 996 over south bend indiana, lgt to mod precip southern wis, northern il and northern and central indiana... What hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 114 pv has now dropped over northern lake mich..sub 992 clipper over central ohio...mod precip for ohio and indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 120 sub 992 low over somerset pa...the clipper is now starting to get somewhat absurbed by the storm over the ocean....lgt precip over the area..with lgt to mod pver nyc and li...some lgt to mod precip in western pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 126 sub 992 low bout 100 or so miles ssw of the bm....pv is sliding through pa....lgt to mod precip from bos to about dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Euro may be doing what Canadian did, missing the first storm and setting the stage for the bigger storm in a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 132 sub 988 low about 200 miles east of cape cod...some lgt to mod precip from ttn to bos...looks like its trying to hang back an inverted trof like idea towards phl and nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 132 sub 988 low about 200 miles east of cape cod...some lgt to mod precip from ttn to bos looks like an inverted trough around that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 132 sub 988 low about 200 miles east of cape cod...some lgt to mod precip from ttn to bos Sounds like a 1-3"/2-4" event from a clipper for most of the area? Not too bad if that verified... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 138 lgt precip for phl area...lgt to mod precip ttn to nyc and li with inverted trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What's the total precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 looks like an inverted trough around that timeframe. lol yea i added that in as i saw it later lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Sounds like a 1-3"/2-4" event from a clipper for most of the area? Not too bad if that verified... lgt to mod precip for 12 hrs should yield alittle more then 1-3/2-4" event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Euro may be doing what Canadian did, missing the first storm and setting the stage for the bigger storm in a week I still think it will get most of SNE - including CT and possibly parts of ENY - pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What's the total precip? through hr 144 nyc .6-.7 ttn .5 phl .25-.3 hazleton .3-.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 looks like an inverted trough around that timeframe. It looks like the 18z GFS run from yesterday then, with an inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 the GFS was trying to drip an inverted trough in on previous runs. that could be good for some, but makes forecasting the event that much more difficult, a la 2/4/09 where 10" was not far away from 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Day 6 500mb http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 through hr 144 nyc .6-.7 ttn .5 phl .25-.3 hazleton .3-.4 thats pretty good. impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 150 2nd storm brewing in the gulf...sub 1008, with another area of precip coming into the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I still think it will get most of SNE - including CT and possibly parts of ENY - pretty good. not on this run the winners on the run is nyc/long island and extreme southern New Englan with the inverted trough, the coastal misses everyone just about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 lgt to mod precip for 12 hrs should yield alittle more then 1-3/2-4" event.. hmmm, Per Tombo below your right...looking like 3-6"/4-8" or so...Ill take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Day 6 500mb http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest looks like the second storm might have legs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 through hr 144 nyc .6-.7 ttn .5 phl .25-.3 hazleton .3-.4 Tombo can we please get some Baltimore QPF, thank you. Sorry you had to see the Eagles lose yesterday even though it meant nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 looks like the second storm might have legs its because the first storm is weaker that the 2nd one may be huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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