SACRUS Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GGEM looks mainly a miss 1/7 - 1/8. It does show a the storm brewing in N-TX at 144 seems poised to cut http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/595_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 ahhh Jan 7th and 8th...can't believe its been 15 years!! GGEM looks mainly a miss 1/7 - 1/8. It does show a the storm brewing in N-TX at 144 seems poised to cut http://www.weatherof...ast/595_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Not sure if anyone commented on this yet, but the long range GFS has some incredible cold across the whole CONUS. Literally the 0c line basically runs across the southern borders of all the southern states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GGEM looks mainly a miss 1/7 - 1/8. It does show a the storm brewing in N-TX at 144 seems poised to cut http://www.weatherof...ast/595_100.gif Might try to but with that massive low over Maine, no way it succeeds. I'd be more worried about suppression unless it gets out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That's excellent news as I can't really see the images as a whole on my iPhone. But 0z euro gives 1.5" qpf so if it's moving that way I'm excited! And it's the only model with a significant hit for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GFS looks a lot more like the Euro than I thought it might already. Further south with storm #1, and storm #2 hits us with light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 alright lets, see what new solution the 12z euro throws at us here, has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12Z UK absolutely crushes New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Not sure if anyone commented on this yet, but the long range GFS has some incredible cold across the whole CONUS. Literally the 0c line basically runs across the southern borders of all the southern states. As stated yesterday by me Mikehobbyst, on 02 January 2011 - 10:22 AM, said: Looking like a 3-4 week historical cold period based on the latest GFS runs of endless weeks of not breaking freezing this month. Maybe a very few days get to 35 to be realistic. The 1993-1994 cold January could be beaten is month. I think we have a chance to own that winter's cold and maybe beat it with a -8 to -10 F low in the city and -10 to -15 F lows on the island sometime this month. The scary thing it is looking very likely too and not a hype or wishing thing. Massive snowfall can come out of this crazy pattern if our opportunities phase correctly and time correctly. This could be the strongest and most severe winter since late 1970's. I would hedge on that bet right now.... I think we have a top 1 or top 2 coldest January since records were taken with a mean average temp below freezing too. This is looking historical to me. Do others see this ?? Also the AO and NAO stay negative indefinately !!!!! Coldest air from Siberia comes over too... This is too much to handle if you are a cold and snow person. I am sure everyone is stoked about this month in the northeast based on the signals alone. I do not think I am too far from reality about the cold magnitude being historic. Actually I am with you on this prediction. Alot of younger people do not remember, but the big deal in the 70's was also frozen rivers and ice jams. The Susquehanna River was already freezing over at Harrisburg two weeks ago. If this brief warm-up is over by the middle of the week, we are in trouble. The ice in the river usually indicates very cold soil conditions- 2-3 foot frozen soils in the watershed. That is not going away soon. On top of that, little snow cover in the area except New jersey leads to deeper frozen soils. If we get a fresh snow cover on top of this, the setup is there for real cold weather and for a long duration. The ground hog just maybe frozen in his cage come February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 early march 2001 early feb 78 Yeah this is an excellent analog to last night's 0z Euro. But even in this case, the mid-level low that dropped down into the mid-Atlantic was initially an open wave in Canada that deepened steadily as it swung through. In the Euro depiction - and really most recent guidance - the polar vortex has been a well established, closed contoured (all the way to 200mb) ULL low for days. In these cases it seems much more common for a s/w rotating around the PV to amplify and form a new closed low center southeast of the primary, as opposed to the original PV center bodily moving to Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z GFS (line) comparison to 12z Euro (color): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 through 48, two separate pv's one on the western shores of hudson bay, the other over the maine region...so far maine difference is the pv by the hudson bay compared to 0z euro is its a good bit slower in dropping south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 through 48, the ridge looks a bit less amplified compared to 0z, and the PV orientation seems be maybe 50mile nw (if that) Go ahead tom.. you got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 through hr 60, the one pv continues to be a lot slower, not really dropping towards the border like the 0z had it....its a good 250 miles or so further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 through hr 60, the one pv continues to be a lot slower, not really dropping towards the border like the 0z had it....its a good 250 miles or so further north. Smells like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 66 the pv is stil on western shores of hudson bay, while 0z had it about 200 miles north of MN....also the pv is pretty elongated not confined like 0z. The block isnt as strong as 0z, so this may argue why its further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Aint happening this run from what i see..the pv near hudson bay escaped north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GFS vs. Euro (color): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 through hr 72, the pv basically retreated to central canada, vastly diff than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Aint happening this run from what i see..the pv near hudson bay escaped north yea the block isnt as storn, it doesnt pinch off the vortex and pushes it south, thus it escapes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Aint happening this run from what i see..the pv near hudson bay escaped north Yeah, the +pna and -nao ridges never meet up at hour 66, like they did on the the 0z run. hence the escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Sounds like the 0z run was a burp run, heading back to the general idea of a clipper that may blow up in time for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 through hr 72, the pv basically retreated to central canada, vastly diff than 0z We can count on this behavior from the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 looks like the 0z euro was a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Sounds like the 0z run was a burp run, heading back to the general idea of a clipper that may blow up in time for New England. the euro doesnt even have that clipper that is over the lakes, that is now displaced over southern hudson bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Sounds like the 0z run was a burp run, heading back to the general idea of a clipper that may blow up in time for New England. I wouldn't set anything in stone til at least Wed night when all the players are on the field.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I wouldn't set anything in stone til at least Wed night when all the players are on the field.. Th old reliable Euro seems to have it and then loose it - sound familiar? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 sub 1004 clipper now dropping into MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.