tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 60 on the gem, bullseye phl and nearby areas with .1-.25 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 0z gem lost the 12z cutter idea For Storm 2 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The degree of blocking this winter and last is truly amazing, and I'm sure will be the topic of many case studies for years to come. The solar part of the equation is certainly interesting, since the Sun has been ridiculously quiet for years now, and speculation is developing that it's helping us to enter a new cold era in global temperatures. As long as we stay in Ninas, the globe overall will almost certainly will cool down (the Tropics contain such a large amount of heat that a 1-2 degree drop in temps there has huge global implications), and the renewed blocking could make for much more interesting winters here for as long as it persists. I was speaking to a relatively unknown long range guy who thinks exactly what you are saying, to a tee. La Ninas, but blocky La Ninas, will tend to dominate over the next 20-50 years, and that this is caused by solar cycles. He thinks this will lead to global cooling of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It would be hysterical if we become reviled the way Boston did for 2008-2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 For Storm 2 ? no for storm 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I remember NYC 1976-77 and Christmas 1980 with highs in the upper single digits and low teens and nights at -2. Didnt NYC , was it in 1994 hit -4? I remember a forecast for NYC once when the actually NWS call was for 0 to -10...an amazing call, just to hear it. With this amazingly cold air in central Canada any prognostications as to how cold it can potentially get here? can we see a below zero nigh with a daytime high of 11 or 12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It would be hysterical if we become reviled the way Boston did for 2008-2009. A snowy January and we'd actually have a shot at beating 1995-96 in SOME areas, depending on what happened in Feb and Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I remember NYC 1976-77 and Christmas 1980 with highs in the upper single digits and low teens and nights at -2. Didnt NYC , was it in 1994 hit -4? I remember a forecast for NYC once when the actually NWS call was for 0 to -10...an amazing call, just to hear it. With this amazingly cold air in central Canada any prognostications as to how cold it can potentially get here? can we see a below zero nigh with a daytime high of 11 or 12? 1/19/94 Central Park Hi 8 Lo -2 Elizabeth Hi 8 Lo -3 I think the highs of 8 were actually more amazing than the lows of -2 and -3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 no for storm 5 Dont be a WiseA$$.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 144 on the gem, not sure it turns the corner or not, it should atleast get up to hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GGEM sounds like the ensemble mean, mainly a miss, weak storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Dont be a WiseA$.. when it comes to Ji, theres nothing wise about him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 60 on the gem, bullseye phl and nearby areas with .1-.25 qpf Between that and hour 72 it looks like a solid 0.25" of QPF or more overall. If that happens for Philly I consider it a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Between that and hour 72 it looks like a solid 0.25" of QPF or more overall. If that happens for Philly I consider it a win. i think 1-3 is a win lol, im not greedy i will take anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 heres hr 144 color map from the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This is still a nerve-racking setup, but we have the NAM, GFS, UKEMT and CMC all agreeing that the norlun sets up over Philly and then moves NE and rotates. That's very good agreement for such an unusual feature. Now to see if it continues at 12z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 heres hr 144 color map from the ggem Hmm... looks very good there. But does it lose it somehow later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i think 1-3 is a win lol, im not greedy i will take anything. It''s looking like it may be a 3-6 or 4-8" snowfall if the QPF forecasts verify.. if not then it will be 1-3 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 heres hr 144 color map from the ggem does the 0z go out to 168? that looks like it would be a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I won't get greedy here on Long Island too. 2-4 inches on Friday to "freshen" things up here would be great. As long as there is no rain snow line creeping up the coast I'm good. Interesting though will be NYC and Mayor Bloomberg's response to the next potentially heavy snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GGEM sounds like the ensemble mean, mainly a miss, weak storm Hmm... looks very good there. But does it lose it somehow later? does the 0z go out to 168? that looks like it would be a nice hit. scoots east, perhaps grazing e-va, snj, li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 does the 0z go out to 168? that looks like it would be a nice hit. it goes to hr 240...sarcus already posted the hr 168 its pretty far east, prob slides off hse. We may get grazed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 12/13/1988: See pages 13 -15: http://journals.amet...TE%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Also discussed in Kocin Book Volume One Page 189. There was also one in February 1990, particularly noteworthy on East End (up to 15"). The Norlun event in this case would not be so much a surprise as the fact its being so widely forecast by the models...the storm which missed in mid-December had a norlun signature on the NAM but it was modest and no other models showed it...given its been so long since the region has had a norlun event its possible we're simply seeing the models ability has increased significantly to pick them up...the last one I remember after the 1990 one was one in CNJ in 1996-1997 or so near Belmar, and that event was forecast by Mt. Holly...some parts of Monmouth county saw up to 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 it goes to hr 240...sarcus already posted the hr 168 its pretty far east, prob slides off hse. We may get grazed. I'd easily rather see it there than in the lakes. NOGAPS at 500mb looks like the most amplified thus far of all the 0z runs but much less than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Let's discuss this threat here http://www.americanw...tial-part-deux/ This thread has over 1000 posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 it goes to hr 240...sarcus already posted the hr 168 its pretty far east, prob slides off hse. We may get grazed. Well a huge shift from it's 12z Lakes cutter idea. Im just gonna try and make it through this weekend. Im golfing tomorrow, and snowboarding Sat and Mon. so i'll take a nice little fresh "powder" .. talk about going extremes in a matter of days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Total QPF. This would be very nice, although nowhere near a lock at this range. Damn that Norton is persistent. This could be one of those events that weenies will be analoging for years to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Interesting that the forecast models available in 1988 had the region basically dry that day per the article. In that case the low was well further offshore and of course the models were way worse...I'm not sure the resolution back then on any of the models was good enough to see a norlun feature that far from the low center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Just saw the Canadian on e-wall. Looks like a trough gives the area light-mod precip (2nd storm.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Since a new thread was opened maybe a mod can lock this up now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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