SLAM22 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well there's a reason why the models are pointless beyond a certain time. In just 1 run, we go from a coastal plain hugger to a suppressed solution. I would hold off on that threat for now and focus on the potential Norlun event. It'll be interesting to see how it unfolds and who gets the worst of it. haha im pretty sure this is the total opposite of somthing you posted in the 12z thread...just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 wow, thanks a lot, that really helped. The actual bufkit soundings have a setting omega and snow growth you can turn on as well, you should be able to infer all the data you need on one picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Really going to the other extreme now, especially for temp departures. A -5 January would be incredible cold, probably one of the coldest months on record if it verified. Jan departures NYC 2009 : -4.2 2004: -7.4 PHL 2009: -3.3 2004 : -6.2 2003 : -3.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 below zero temps again at the end of this run <504 thickness for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Really going to the other extreme now, especially for temp departures. A -5 January would be incredible cold, probably one of the coldest months on record if it verified. top 10 coldest JAN's on record at Philly range from 20.0 to 25.3 current AVE is 32.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think nearly every met and weather enthusiast is getting completely burnt this winter. The changes from then till now are astounding. How do you go from a forecast, in November, for January and February to be several degrees above average and end up with January potentially being one of the coldest months in several years. And how does NJ/NYC end up with a 20-30"+ snowstorm from a Miller A in a moderate/strong Nina. Did not see that coming. I have said this for YEARS and nobody wants to listen. Repeat after me: ENSO IS NOT THE ONLY FACTOR IN LONG RANGE FORECASTING! I think that's FINALLY proving itself out this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think nearly every met and weather enthusiast is getting completely burnt this winter. The changes from then till now are astounding. How do you go from a forecast, in November, for January and February to be several degrees above average and end up with January potentially being one of the coldest months in several years. And how does NJ/NYC end up with a 20-30"+ snowstorm from a Miller A in a moderate/strong Nina. Did not see that coming. LC is one of the very few mets that called for a cold Jan back in October..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 384, i know way out, but in central canada it has lower than -40 for highs, that sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 384, i know way out, but in central canada it has lower than -40 for highs, that sick. WOW! What's interesting is that it has stayed consistent through all of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 ukie and gem both like norlun starting over phl then going to nyc http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2011010500®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=500&F2=none&C1=tmpc&VEC=none&F1=p06i&C2=pmsl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looks like a decent event here but it's violatle to get excited about it http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p60_096m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 ukie and gem both like norlun starting over phl then going to nyc http://weather.uwyo....F1=p06i&C2=pmsl Is this going to be an NYC winter? For whatever reason, certain winters seem to set their "magnets" on one spot and then keep it there all year. Last year, it was the BWI-PHL corridor. Maybe this year, it's closer to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I have said this for YEARS and nobody wants to listen. Repeat after me: ENSO IS NOT THE ONLY FACTOR IN LONG RANGE FORECASTING! I think that's FINALLY proving itself out this year! Given how negative the PNA has been this last month, without this kind of block we would've likely torched for most of December, since the SE ridge would've definitely asserted itself w/o the NAO keeping it in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looks like a decent event here but it's violatle to get excited about it http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p60_096m.gif If there's an east flow for a prolonged length of time, the upsloping in the Poconos could help you guys squeeze out at least a lgt-mod snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow -40, I don't think I've every seen the gfs show that before. That is amazing. In the long range it looks like the entire arctic has invaded the CONUS, it will be interesting to see what actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Given how negative the PNA has been this last month, without this kind of block we would've likely torched for most of December, since the SE ridge would've definitely asserted itself w/o the NAO keeping it in check. I agree with that! But my point is, along the East Coast of the United States, NAO is probably A LOT more important than ENSO. In 1997-98, the NAO was basically neutral and El Nino overwhelmed the pattern, BECAUSE NAO was not very strong. In 2001-02, ENSO was near neutral (which SHOULD be good for East Coast snows), but the NAO was VERY positive, and the year was awful for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If there's an east flow for a prolonged length of time, the upsloping in the Poconos could help you guys squeeze out at least a lgt-mod snow event. Upslope + orographic lifting. However, valley locations would not do as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 0z gem lost the 12z cutter idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Is this going to be an NYC winter? For whatever reason, certain winters seem to set their "magnets" on one spot and then keep it there all year. Last year, it was the BWI-PHL corridor. Maybe this year, it's closer to NYC. That is an excellent point, but is it coincidence ? I use to always run from here to my Liberty NY second home to ride out the big ones there. As of early January, cumulative snow totals here on Long Island have never exceeded that in the Catskills...amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Really going to the other extreme now, especially for temp departures. A -5 January would be incredible cold, probably one of the coldest months on record if it verified. 10 coldest January mean temperatures for Philadelphia 1. 20.0°, 1977 2. 22.4°, 1857 3. 24.0°, 1893 4. 24.1°, 1875 5. 24.2°, 1856 and 1918 7. 24.4°, 1840 8. 24.5°, 1970 9. 24.7°, 1982 10. 24.8°, 1945 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Jan departures NYC 2009 : -4.2 2004: -7.4 PHL 2009: -3.3 2004 : -6.2 2003 : -3.8 top 10 coldest JAN's on record at Philly range from 20.0 to 25.3 current AVE is 32.3 Thanks for the info, was just a guess on my part. Either way -5 departure in Jan is some serious cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 120 on gem, looks a good bit better than gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That is an excellent point, but is it coincidence ? I use to always run from here to my Liberty NY second home to ride out the big ones there. As of early January, cumulative snow totals here on Long Island have never exceeded that in the Catskills...amazing It's not really coincidence, per se, because the storm track pattern of the year usually dictates that. What amazes me, however, is that often it's in such a narrow area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 ggem 72 hours Looks more like the nam 0.25 - 0.50 nj- nyc, north of there more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If there's an east flow for a prolonged length of time, the upsloping in the Poconos could help you guys squeeze out at least a lgt-mod snow event. Based on those QPF'S .. not saying they are right, but it would be more then just a mod event.. it would be a major snow. Especially considering how we have been missed the past 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 0z gem lost the 12z cutter idea By the way, I think the GFS going out to sea COULD be good news if you want snow on the East Coast. Show me a SECS where the GFS was NOT out to sea at least a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 gfs ens take a sub 1008 low across the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I agree with that! But my point is, along the East Coast of the United States, NAO is probably A LOT more important than ENSO. In 1997-98, the NAO was basically neutral and El Nino overwhelmed the pattern, BECAUSE NAO was not very strong. In 2001-02, ENSO was near neutral (which SHOULD be good for East Coast snows), but the NAO was VERY positive, and the year was awful for snow. The degree of blocking this winter and last is truly amazing, and I'm sure will be the topic of many case studies for years to come. The solar part of the equation is certainly interesting, since the Sun has been ridiculously quiet for years now, and speculation is developing that it's helping us to enter a new cold era in global temperatures. As long as we stay in Ninas, the globe overall will almost certainly will cool down (the Tropics contain such a large amount of heat that a 1-2 degree drop in temps there has huge global implications), and the renewed blocking could make for much more interesting winters here for as long as it persists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Given how negative the PNA has been this last month, without this kind of block we would've likely torched for most of December, since the SE ridge would've definitely asserted itself w/o the NAO keeping it in check. Totally agree, the amazing Atlantic Pattern completely held the La Nina at bay which resulted in a cold and stormy December. Now it looks like both oceans are going to cooperate that will help deliever a brutally cold airmass by next week. La Nina who??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Who's staying up for the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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