Isotherm Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow, what has to happen for you guys to NOT get snow this year haha. Really, against all odds you're doing it. Congrats, this is a neat little event and is really gonna be nowcasting out there. Don't send any congrats just yet...60+ hours out is hardly lock in time for a norlun. More like 12-24 hours if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Meh, 6"-12" from TTN to ALB from an inverted trough...that would be nice. As long as I get 2-4" to rewhiten all the ground that's lost snow and make the piles outside temporarily look less hideous, it's fine by me. Whatever more comes is just gravy. It just goes to show the power of this block to shift this far south an event that usually never gets south of downeast Maine or the immediate eastern MA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Don't send any congrats just yet...60+ hours out is hardly lock in time for a norlun. More like 12-24 hours if that. 0-3 hrs, fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 throug hr 117 stronger with the block, pv extending pack to the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 remember what I posted earlier. the GFS is a global model with a lower resolution, so it WILL over-smooth the cutoff between norlun and no-norlun. 0z run looks great, but I wouldn't count on it verifying. (Sorry if I'm coming off sounding like bluehens, lol. I just don't want a massive weenie suicide Friday morning. I still think everyone gets at least 1-2") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Total QPF. This would be very nice, although nowhere near a lock at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Is it going to squash our next storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well, that was quite interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 lol we may have to worry about surpression this run from 2nd storm.. a wall over the lakes and northeast at hr 129 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 lol we may have to worry about surpression this run from 2nd storm.. a wall over the lakes and northeast at hr 129 Yeah, I can see the D8/9 threat evolving into a swfe given the orientation at H5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah, I can see the D8/9 threat evolving into a swfe given the orientation at H5... swfe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 wow. Glenn Hurricane Schwartz says 30-40" this winter now, and admits that he screwed up. Once again proving himself to be the best Met in Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 swfe? southwest flow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 wow. Glenn Hurricane Schwartz says 30-40" this winter now, and admits that he screwed up. Once again proving himself to be the best Met in Philly. he just say that tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 swfe? south west flow event.. but scratch that, not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hmm, I guessed it was "swinging way flipping east" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 lol we may have to worry about surpression this run from 2nd storm.. a wall over the lakes and northeast at hr 129 Didn't the 12z EURO show this as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Meh..flat ridge out west and a broad trough = supressed this run...no worries though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes he did Tom. 5 below for Jan with 12" 3 below for Feb with 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 he just say that tonight? yup. on the 11:00 news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 looks a whole lot like the 12z euro. Never really amplifies and pumps the ridge on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Meh..flat ridge out west and a broad trough = supressed this run...no worries though at least it's not a cutter, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 heres glenns updated forecast http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-Volume-2-112913624.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well there's a reason why the models are pointless beyond a certain time. In just 1 run, we go from a coastal plain hugger to a suppressed solution. I would hold off on that threat for now and focus on the potential Norlun event. It'll be interesting to see how it unfolds and who gets the worst of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 where do you find where the best omega is? Do you just use the 700mb charts on the models for best uv's, then go to a sounding and see what temperature is at that level. BUFKIT data can help you determine that, having a site that can illustrate the BUFKIT data is even more of a plus. Penn State Ewall has a BUFKIT data section where you can choose the site of your choice and get that info via text output using either the NAM, GFS, or RUC models. However, the text output can take a while to look thru. http://www.meteo.psu...NUS_NAM_00.html Alot of ppl use the coolwx site because it takes the model data and prints out the precip type and amounts.. for example using KPHL and the 0z NAM However, this site also illustrates the models BUFKIT data as well. Temp: Omega: Site Link (on the left hand side you can find other plots/models/cites/etc) Comparing these, you can see that according to the 0z NAM (you can do this for the GFS and RUC models too) that it appears the best lift occurs generally around the -6 to -10ºC levels, although some omegas extend up thru the -16ºC. To give a rough guesstimate on those plots, I would say it is fairly decent but not optimal and would probably equate to about 10-12:1. Surface temps are around freezing, so may reduce it a bit, but yea these maps can give you a rough idea of how good the snow ratios could possibly be. As far as precise info to calculate these parameters to get a ratio like 15-20:1, <10:1 and etc.. I'm not completely sure of. Theres lots of variables that determine the ratio, so going with a a more general idea instead of really going crazy trying to determine the precise value is likely better when dealing with a widespread snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 heres glenns updated forecast http://www.nbcphilad...-112913624.html Really going to the other extreme now, especially for temp departures. A -5 January would be incredible cold, probably one of the coldest months on record if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 BUFKIT data can help you determine that, having a site that can illustrate the BUFKIT data is even more of a plus. Penn State Ewall has a BUFKIT data section where you can choose the site of your choice and get that info via text output using either the NAM, GFS, or RUC models. However, the text output can take a while to look thru. http://www.meteo.psu...NUS_NAM_00.html Alot of ppl use the coolwx site because it takes the model data and prints out the precip type and amounts.. for example using KPHL and the 0z NAM However, this site also illustrates the models BUFKIT data as well. Comparing these, you can see that according to the 0z NAM (you can do this for the GFS and RUC models too) that it appears the best lift occurs generally around the -6 to -10ºC levels, although some omegas extend up thru the -16ºC. To give a rough guesstimate on those plots, I would say it is fairly decent but not optimal and would probably equate to about 10-12:1. Surface temps are around freezing, so may reduce it a bit, but yea these maps can give you a rough idea of how good the snow ratios could possibly be. As far as precise info to calculate these parameters to get a ratio like 15-20:1, <10:1 and etc.. I'm not completely sure of. Theres lots of variables that determine the ratio, so going with a a more general idea instead of really going crazy trying to determine the precise value is likely better when dealing with a widespread snow event. wow, thanks a lot, that really helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 LOL - not one flake or drop around here on this run. That's why this far out we just have to say there's a threat with storm 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Really going to the other extreme now, especially for temp departures. A -5 January would be incredible cold, probably one of the coldest months on record if it verified. not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think nearly every met and weather enthusiast is getting completely burnt this winter. The changes from then till now are astounding. How do you go from a forecast, in November, for January and February to be several degrees above average and end up with January potentially being one of the coldest months in several years. And how does NJ/NYC end up with a 20-30"+ snowstorm from a Miller A in a moderate/strong Nina. Did not see that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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