gkrangers Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It looks like .25-.50 for everybody through 75 hrs. Still snowing. I'm sure everybody will take a light event at this point. I would take partly cloudy after the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'd like to understand the dynamics behind a norlun better. It looks like the Arctic front moves through EPA, then rotates NNE and becomes the norlun...is that possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 check hr 75 tom...seems to still have it to extent yea, it takes longer to get going. Looks like the arctic front gives it a kick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nice 3-6" event on the nam, mahybe even alittle more in NY state...What a nice snow replenisher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I am not sure how you analyze the pattern without some sort of model input in a longer range. The upcoming pattern looks cold and stormy but one can only deduce that by looking at longer range modeling. Sure shorter range fluctuations will cause downstream chaos that is to be expected but those variables need to be accounted for. Not disagreeing with that at all but if you are going to worry about what 168 + progged storm shows as far as details etc are concerned then you probably need to step away from the models. Simply put if a model is not consistent and is having trouble with a short term storm ...then one has to realize they are going to have the same trouble with long term storms. It would be much wiser and prudent to look to the pattern instead of the specific details that 6 hrs later are going to change in H5 position as well as at the surface... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It looks like .25-.50 for everybody through 75 hrs. Still snowing. I'm sure everybody will take a light event at this point. Isn't Philly in .1-.25? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Definitely. I just want snow cover It looks like .25-.50 for everybody through 75 hrs. Still snowing. I'm sure everybody will take a light event at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 1-3" for Philly and suburbs seems to be a good early call. Agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Isn't Philly in .1-.25? yes, hes going for his region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Isn't Philly in .1-.25? Yeah, all the way up through Jersey. LI and NYC Metro are the big winners verbatim. Of course, the mesoscale features are going to change a lot between now and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 1-3" for Philly and suburbs seems to be a good early call. Agree? yup...all depends on where that inverted trof kicks in..last two runs have it over li into sw ct and southern ny...great things with those is that u never no where they will set up pretty hard to accurately forecast. Everyone is game from phl to boston, but the further northeast the better chance...still looks like a solid 1-3 with arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 1-3" for Philly and suburbs seems to be a good early call. Agree? 1-3" Philly 2-4" ABE/RDG 4+ NEPA + NYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah, all the way up through Jersey. LI and NYC Metro are the big winners verbatim. Of course, the mesoscale features are going to change a lot between now and Friday. Thanks for Clarifying for us folks in no mans land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i would rather have the base of the system sharpen up enough so we don't have to worry about placement of the inverted trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 1-3" Philly 2-4" ABE/RDG 4+ NEPA + NYS i will gladly take 1-3, just to whiten the ground, refresh snow piles..... Deff a few surprises are going to be insotre on fri i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i will gladly take 1-3, just to whiten the ground, refresh snow piles..... Deff a few surprises are going to be insotre on fri i think. Heck I'll be glad with 3" - more than the 12/26 storm here lol. To cover that green grass we have out there right now =p. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think we have learned this winter so far and especially the last storm not to put much faith in the NAM post 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 qpf totals for pa abe .3 pne .17 nxx .19 lom .19 lns .15 dyl .2 ukt .24 phl .17 rdg .22 ptw .22 mpo .38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think we have learned this winter so far and especially the last storm not to put much faith in the NAM post 72 hours. and especially with a feature like a norlun/inverted trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 These NORLUN toughs are crazy, have the potential to produce up to 2 feet in localized areas theyre almost like a lake effect snow band for coastal areas...either way if totals like that were to happen with this storm will probably be north of NYC based on current model runs and climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 qpf totals for pa abe .3 pne .17 nxx .19 lom .19 lns .15 dyl .2 ukt .24 phl .17 rdg .22 ptw .22 mpo .38 thx tombo....your pbp is always a great. You think ratios will be better than 10:1?? I was thinking 12-15:1 might be more in play? Your thoughts? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah, that's a good point. Even within this subforum, a lot of those solutions are warm for PHL and all snow for NYC. Yeah but more so the fact that Midlo is in Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 SWCT is .75"-1" NYC is .50"-75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 thx tombo....your pbp is always a great. You think ratios will be better than 10:1?? I was thinking 12-15:1 might be more in play? Your thoughts? Nut i dunno, surface temps are around freezing in the cities, 850's are around -7 or so....id still lean more towards a 10-12 to 1. Look at last storm it was pretty cold and most stations were around 11 to 1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 thx tombo....your pbp is always a great. You think ratios will be better than 10:1?? I was thinking 12-15:1 might be more in play? Your thoughts? Nut Ratios should be very good but dont worry so much about qpf outputs right snow.. everyone should get their 1-2" but where that inverted trough sets up is where the money is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 looks like a potentially dangerous situation setting up for friday morning rush hour, with 2-3" of snow hitting in about 3 hours. not enough to cancel school which makes this possibly a bad situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 21z sref indiv tot precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i dunno, surface temps are around freezing in the cities, 850's are around -7 or so....id still lean more towards a 10-12 to 1. Look at last storm it was pretty cold and most stations were around 11 to 1 ratios. The wind killed the ratios last storm I believe, wind is not nearly as much of a factor with this storm, although you are right it will be a bit warmer in the lower layers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 tombo, you mind adding MDT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i dunno, surface temps are around freezing in the cities, 850's are around -7 or so....id still lean more towards a 10-12 to 1. Look at last storm it was pretty cold and most stations were around 11 to 1 ratios. I'll take your word for it....back here in LNS we barely had a dusting.. I'm basing my guess on lack of warm advection round here (unless the Norlun comes a little south of current NYC and north keeping us on the colder side at all layers. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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