jrodd321 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think we can say this was a trend in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 it gets captured in the later frames and just dumps ton of snow on sne...prob a historic storm for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Looks like the trough is too broad and gets captured a little too late for us. But still definitely time for more improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 132 nearing 2 inches of liquid for boston and blizzard conditions..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Comparing these two images, i can honestly say I'm starting to get excited. 00z http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_120l.gif 12z http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_108l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 it jumped in the direction of the euro. 8 more sounding runs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Much better looking aloft I will say. We need the energy to be a little more consolidated and the trough to go neg a little faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This is why people should not be making calls on model runs either A) before they are completed or B ) when they have no clue what they are talking about...unless they are a met or someone that has proven to be reliable. Sounds like this one is right where we want it to be this far out..let's hope the Euro holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 For comparisons: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 nice trend by GFS..remember..it really becomes a good model in the 72hr-84hr period..like the boxer blizzard shows..wouldn't care about specifics till it gets in that time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Wow, the GFS and Euro are actually pretty close aloft...it's all about consolidating the energy more, and faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z definitely seems to be going with the more consolidated area of energy this run which causes it to dig more. Good trend overall but still no southern interaction like the Euro and NAM show. todays run of the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Were losing oue 50/50 low pretty quick by 180hrs and I think the following storm will cut inland on this run..But wow at that setup aloft for the first storm. Huge trend towards the 00z euro continued from 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 it jumped in the direction of the euro. 8 more sounding runs to go Maybe 9 or 10 if it slows. DeJa Vu here. Just like last year where we seemingly had a threat to track each week. Hopefully the threats materializes for us again and are we not chasing the Dec 19th cousin with this one. SNE http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_156l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 So in effect, Chris, it looks like the coastal/cutter zipper continues... Were losing oue 50/50 low pretty quick by 180hrs and I think the following storm will cut inland on this run..But wow at that setup aloft for the first storm. Huge trend towards the 00z euro continued from 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 So in effect, Chris, it looks like the coastal/cutter zipper continues... It actually doesn't look too bad prior to truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This might sound silly, but it kind of seems that we could be the DCA/BWI of the 2/9-2/10 storm of last winter, while SNE is the PA/NJ of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 it jumped in the direction of the euro. 8 more sounding runs to go I am officially ecstatic that you're interested in this threat. You're 3 for 3 in my book so far this winter. You immediately dismissed the first two threats long before anyone else on this site, and you remained steadfast last weekend even after that 0z Euro sent a few of our esteemed posters off their respective cliffs. Stay gold, Forky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Were losing oue 50/50 low pretty quick by 180hrs and I think the following storm will cut inland on this run..But wow at that setup aloft for the first storm. Huge trend towards the 00z euro continued from 6z gfs There is still plenty of blocking in Canada, and the 500mb flow is NW over our area at 180...looks kind of like a pseudo-split flow. Remember how for the 2/6 storm, there was very defined area of where the SW flow "met" the NW flow at 500mb? The 500mb depiction at 180 hours kind of reminds me of that--you get a well defined area like that because of the pseudo-split-flow. Obviously, this is a Nina, and there is a lot less gulf moisture, but today's GFS prog still brought 2/6 memories aloft, only this time it appears that the confluence is slightly further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 So in effect, Chris, it looks like the coastal/cutter zipper continues... Not quite, as it still manages to scoot off the coast days 8-10.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 There is still plenty of blocking in Canada, and the 500mb flow is NW over our area at 180...looks kind of like a pseudo-split flow. Remember how for the 2/6 storm, there was very defined area of where the SW flow "met" the NW flow at 500mb? The 500mb depiction at 180 hours kind of reminds me of that--you get a well defined area like that because of the pseudo-split-flow. Obviously, this is a Nina, and there is a lot less gulf moisture, but today's GFS prog still brought 2/6 memories aloft, only this time it appears that the confluence is slightly further north. Well what do ya know, the storm pulls a mini 2/6 this run...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This might sound silly, but it kind of seems that we could be the DCA/BWI of the 2/9-2/10 storm of last winter, while SNE is the PA/NJ of it. It'll be interesting to see what the other 12z guidance shows but I see what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I am officially ecstatic that you're interested in this threat. You're 3 for 3 in my book so far this winter. You immediately dismissed the first two threats long before anyone else on this site, and you remained steadfast last weekend even after that 0z Euro sent a few of our esteemed posters off their respective cliffs. Stay gold, Forky! Haha that's exactly what i was thinking. When forky gets excited, you know the threat is legit. I remember forky saying stick a fork in it for the first threat and he was dead on. Anyways, this pattern coming up is just a dream pattern for any snow lover on the east coast. Just amazing at how much potential there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GGEM to 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 NOGAPS isn't half bad at 500mb...just admiring the trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 There is still plenty of blocking in Canada, and the 500mb flow is NW over our area at 180...looks kind of like a pseudo-split flow. Remember how for the 2/6 storm, there was very defined area of where the SW flow "met" the NW flow at 500mb? The 500mb depiction at 180 hours kind of reminds me of that--you get a well defined area like that because of the pseudo-split-flow. Obviously, this is a Nina, and there is a lot less gulf moisture, but today's GFS prog still brought 2/6 memories aloft, only this time it appears that the confluence is slightly further north. Yeah i was way off looking at a localized US 500mb view on storm vista. I saw interaction with energy in montana and it was closed off almost taking on a negative tilt so that's why I thought that for a second.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z gfs ens are pretty much inline with the operational. Maybe further east and longer to get the coastal going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 ggem at hr 120, looks like it has the clipper snows, but keeps the vortex to far to the north unlike the gfs and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Man this pattern is awesome, probably something great for NYC NE this weekend, and Mid-Atlantic Deep South for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That's excellent news as I can't really see the images as a whole on my iPhone. But 0z euro gives 1.5" qpf so if it's moving that way I'm excited! Were losing oue 50/50 low pretty quick by 180hrs and I think the following storm will cut inland on this run..But wow at that setup aloft for the first storm. Huge trend towards the 00z euro continued from 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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