atownwxwatcher Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 My suggestion would be if the models are having a difficult time handling a system that is 78-96 hours out...well not sure why they would not be having a even more difficult time with a system that is progged at 168 + hours out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 My suggestion would be if the models are having a difficult time handling a system that is 78-96 hours out...well not sure why they would not be having a even more difficult time with a system that is progged at 168 + hours out! That's half the point. The other half is the fact that much of what happens with storm #2 depends on what happens with storm #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 you have the srefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I was on an Eastern Airlines flight leaving for Florida for good (until I moved back) when that happened. I remember hearing that it was a blizzard outside. The flight was delayed for a long time and they almost lost my dog too. Coupled with the fact that I was moving to a hell hole in Florida.... yeaaahhhh. Not good. The last time that I took Eastern I was flying back from Miami to JFK .We flew over the storm east of the Carolinas on 2/11/80 that was earlier expected to give our area an accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The scary thing is that I remember sitting here a couple of weeks ago and looking at similar maps and wondering if we would be getting that storm that ended up dumping 30 inches in some places and the maps looked about the same as this at that time frame. Hum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 SREF's look like crap if you ask me. Pretty simple analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 SREF's look like crap if you ask me. Pretty simple analysis. I was gonna say crapola. Looming in my head is cold and dry, but still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I was gonna say crapola. Looming in my head is cold and dry, but still plenty of time. its all going to come down to the inverted trof....if you dont get that its basically a lot of coatings to an inch or so with the arctic front and ull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 A LOT of the 18z ensemble members...like 1/4....are showing an OV cutter along with quite a few of the 12z Euro members. That is troubling......we can only hope the block holds up. Including the OP, I count 8 coastals, 2 cutters, 1 inland runner and 1 with no storm. we have 11/12 showing a storm. 7/12 showing frozen precipitation (albeit 1 or 2 were actually suppressed enough that we get almost no precip) for 7 days out, I think that's a pretty good signal. And the ensemble mean shows that trend well, with a primary to teh OV and a secondary off the SE coast. why do u insist of finding problems that are not there? Edit: my bad, 8 coastals. when i saw "coastal" i mean at some point there is a low to our east with snow falling. the primary could track pretty far N in earlier frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 SREF's look like crap if you ask me. Pretty simple analysis. rut roh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 its all going to come down to the inverted trof....if you dont get that its basically a lot of coatings to an inch or so with the arctic front and ull. I know, we're well ahead of the game and anything I was expecting this winter with the 26/27th storm. I was referring to next weks threat that had seemed so favorable and how quickly the guidance swung the other way. Nearlky 30 inches in the bag for me which was more than expected for the season. The inverted trough is the key and probably wont be honed in on till Wed and thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The scary thing is that I remember sitting here a couple of weeks ago and looking at similar maps and wondering if we would be getting that storm that ended up dumping 30 inches in some places and the maps looked about the same as this at that time frame. Hum. totally different set up. That was a phasing system (x3) . This is a clipper redeveloping offshore, with the heaviest precip coming from an inverted trough...SO in contrast, you can't compare the two.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 As for system 1 and inverted troughs, is this a decent example (from Ray's Winter Storm Archive)? I was in the sweet spot for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This is from the MA thread. Some of those he has labeled as cutter looked like potential late redevelopers that could hit us but some would be major sleet probably. Quite a few of what you call "coastals' are WAY off shore. I am simply presenting the facts here. Some of these are bona fide good hits. The spread is what you would expect from something so far out but what I'm trying to point out is that a cutter can happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 As for system 1 and inverted troughs, is this a decent example (from Ray's Winter Storm Archive)? I was in the sweet spot for that. Not sure entirely about that event, but basically what a norlun will do is drop a swath of snow in a line from Southeast to Northwest. It usually is not very wide, and has a tight gradient on both sides. So, you either get a few inches from it or you don't, usually. Some can drop several inches of snow if you get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This is from the MA thread. Some of those he has labeled as cutter looked like potential late redevelopers. Quite a few of what you call "coastals' are WAY off shore. I am simply presenting the snow biased facts here. Some of these are bona fide good hits. The spread is what you would expect from something so far out but what I'm trying to point out is that a cutter can happen here. why don't u just check the ens on Allan's site instead? This poster has teh OP labeled as a cutter (completely untrue) along with 4 others labeled as cutters that are actually late redevelopers. Don't confuse the primary going into the OV for a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 why don't u just check the ens on Allan's site instead? This poster has teh OP labeled as a cutter (completely untrue) along with 4 others labeled as cutters that are actually late redevelopers. Don't confuse the primary going into the OV for a cutter What Midlo calls a cutter for him can still bring snow to NYC. He's a lot further south than us. A secondary development wouldn't really help him unless it happened south of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This is from the MA thread. Some of those he has labeled as cutter looked like potential late redevelopers that could hit us but some would be major sleet probably. Quite a few of what you call "coastals' are WAY off shore. I am simply presenting the facts here. Some of these are bona fide good hits. The spread is what you would expect from something so far out but what I'm trying to point out is that a cutter can happen here. And once again you are worrying about what an 18 Z model run shows at 168 + hours out when the models still are not sure what is going to happen with an event at 72-96 hrs out ...where the H5 keeps shifting around.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What Midlo calls a cutter for him can still bring snow to NYC. He's a lot further south than us. A secondary development wouldn't really help him unless it happened south of VA. Yeah, that's a good point. Even within this subforum, a lot of those solutions are warm for PHL and all snow for NYC. And once again you are worrying about what an 18 Z model run shows at 168 + hours out when the models still are not sure what is going to happen with an event at 72-96 hrs out ...where the H5 keeps shifting around.... It's completely relevant to talk about the range of solutions at this time. I know bluehens has been obnoxiously bustcasting the last two days, but his last two posts have been all about the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah, that's a good point. Even within this subforum, a lot of those solutions are warm for PHL and all snow for NYC. It's completely relevant to talk about the range of solutions at this time. I know bluehens has been obnoxiously bustcasting the last two days, but his last two posts have been all about the forecast. Not disagreeing with that at all but if you are going to worry about what 168 + progged storm shows as far as details etc are concerned then you probably need to step away from the models. Simply put if a model is not consistent and is having trouble with a short term storm ...then one has to realize they are going to have the same trouble with long term storms. It would be much wiser and prudent to look to the pattern instead of the specific details that 6 hrs later are going to change in H5 position as well as at the surface... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hmm, not bad looking on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I agree he's got some labeled cutter that will likely redevelop at some point. My point is for all of us to get good snows then we can't see a primary get into Ohio....that is too far north.....we need that primary to die out in Kentucky in order for secondary to form somewhere down by the VA capes. That is the scenario where we all win and we see big snows.....potential over-running from the primary and then the secondary bomb ala something like '96. why don't u just check the ens on Allan's site instead? This poster has teh OP labeled as a cutter (completely untrue) along with 4 others labeled as cutters that are actually late redevelopers. Don't confuse the primary going into the OV for a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 out to hr 69 on the 00z nam... .10+ has fallen from phl to nyc...northeast PA has .25+...still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looks like this NAM run might be a slightly better outcome than 18z. More energy on the backside and a somewhat more neg-tilt look to the low overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 0.25-0.50 for NYC on NW....Nice run, still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 72 inverted trough from albany-nnj-nyc.... .25+ so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 0z Nam 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 out to hr 69 on the 00z nam... .10+ has fallen from phl to nyc...northeast PA has .25+...still snowing 0.25-0.50 for NYC on NW....Nice run, still snowing yea it lost the inverted trof from 18z, now it just looks like a powerhouse arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 It looks like .25-.50 for everybody through 75 hrs. Still snowing. I'm sure everybody will take a light event at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 yea it lost the inverted trof from 18z, now it just looks like a powerhouse arctic front. check hr 75 tom...seems to still have it to extent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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