tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 gets kinda toasty for philly...should be a fun week ahead gets even toastier for nyc later on.....but good run. Of all the cities, dc is the best on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 As Leslie Nielsen said in Naked Gun " Nothing to See Here " Think this system is no big deal someone could get a few inches tops. Rnd 1 probably Rnd 2 has the chance to lay down Double digits somewhere.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 gets even toastier for nyc later on.....but good run. Of all the cities, dc is the best on this run Yea, although 2m temps don't mean crap 7 days out. Just glad big storm is consistently being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 2nd storm snow depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What is really amazing me is how many people have given up on this first system. Two things to keep in mind here. One is that the last system was not modeled properly until 36 hours out, mostly because it dealt mainly with northern stream energy, just like this storm, and two is that the NOGAPS has a 964mb low near the Benchmark at 96 hrs that would pound areas as far west as Long Island and nearly NYC pretty well. Keeping in mind that the NOGAPS is known as a progressive model, that should raise some red flags. I really can't believe how many have given up on this first system. It is really amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Didn't see this posted yet. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Didn't see this posted yet. Enjoy. That is worse than triple X, that is the big O of weather . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The crazy thing is every Long range Model is showing a Big storm following this weekends storm and we are still 7-8 days away from that one and as we know Models have not been able to LOCK anything in until 48 hrs or so I am taking these model runs(good and Bad) with a grain of salt until after this weekends storm passes which IMO isn't even Locked in yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well usually models are able to see a big storm far in advance. The gfs and other models are really beginning to harp on the Jan 11-12 storm. I still think we'll get 2-4" with the upcoming storm. For those further west who got screwed with the past storm, this could be your redemption storm. I have a feeling we're going to see some mixing over here, lack of a 50/50 low and sub par blocking make me think that this one will be further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 just something to think about regarding the Friday event remember that global models, especially the GFS, have lower resolution than mesoscale models. so naturally the globals will tend to smooth over the norlun, when in reality areas that are farther from the axis of the trough will probably not see all that much. watch the mesoscale models like the NAM, RGEM, MM5 and local WRFs for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 as for next week's event, I'm very glad to see a consistent storm signal. At 7 days out, that's all I really want. And per the 18z soundings, PHL only maxes out at 34F for 2m temps, and 850mb temps are <0 except for one 3-hr interval. verbatim it would be an icy mess in the cities and heavy snow just N&W, probably a 2/14/07 redux. but of course thats verbatim at 192 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What is really amazing me is how many people have given up on this first system. Two things to keep in mind here. One is that the last system was not modeled properly until 36 hours out, mostly because it dealt mainly with northern stream energy, just like this storm, and two is that the NOGAPS has a 964mb low near the Benchmark at 96 hrs that would pound areas as far west as Long Island and nearly NYC pretty well. Keeping in mind that the NOGAPS is known as a progressive model, that should raise some red flags. I really can't believe how many have given up on this first system. It is really amazing. i agree with you that people this winter have been jumping ship pretty early only to be brought back into it with a model agreement. the nogaps your right is progressive and for it to show that does kind of show something but it has hardly any model support and it isnt very consistent from run to run, of course in your defense the models havent been phenominal this year at all haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 From Henry's Facebook page: I saw the 18z GFS. The pattern is just the same as we have seen in December. That's why I am going into Big Daddy Mode here shortly because of the way the closed clows keep coming into the East coast. The first one is a teaser as I said with a 6+ inch band somewhere form NJ to New England. Dayton to Lousiville may get 3-6 inches too. Second storm is the Beast that comes into the East! Oh boy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 From Henry's Facebook page: I saw the 18z GFS. The pattern is just the same as we have seen in December. That's why I am going into Big Daddy Mode here shortly because of the way the closed clows keep coming into the East coast. The first one is a teaser as I said with a 6+ inch band somewhere form NJ to New England. Dayton to Lousiville may get 3-6 inches too. Second storm is the Beast that comes into the East! Oh boy! well thats the kiss of death the " big daddy " hat next threat haha. well the pattern is looking great and whats even better in a strong nina were getting great snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Didn't see this posted yet. Enjoy. Oh my god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 From Henry's Facebook page: I saw the 18z GFS. The pattern is just the same as we have seen in December. That's why I am going into Big Daddy Mode here shortly because of the way the closed clows keep coming into the East coast. The first one is a teaser as I said with a 6+ inch band somewhere form NJ to New England. Dayton to Lousiville may get 3-6 inches too. Second storm is the Beast that comes into the East! Oh boy! he better not touch that damn hat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Didn't see this posted yet. Enjoy. looks like that storm doesnt go anywhere quick either right? slow mover perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 wow! now that's what i call cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 No model has much support at the moment, but as far as the bombing goes, the UKMET also shows a massive bomb, just further out to sea, just like the last storm that was supposed to bomb, but be further out to sea. And by the way, the NOGAPS is consistent with its 12z run when it had a 978 mb near the Benchmark with snow back to N NJ. We shall see. i agree with you that people this winter have been jumping ship pretty early only to be brought back into it with a model agreement. the nogaps your right is progressive and for it to show that does kind of show something but it has hardly any model support and it isnt very consistent from run to run, of course in your defense the models havent been phenominal this year at all haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 In fact, the NOGAPS has trended WAY West in the 18z run vs. the 12z run. Look at the 12z run at 102 hrs, vs. the 18z run at 96 hrs. Same time, yet MUCH further West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 These Norlun set ups have a very sharp cutoff to the snow. I can remember getting very light accumulations here back in DEC 88 while areas just to my east did very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 [quote name='Thunder Road' timestamp='1294184565' post='2216 wow! now that's what i call cold That would be cool if it verifies. The siberian express hasn't been down to lower bucks pa since the early eighties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 These Norlun set ups have a very sharp cutoff to the snow. I can remember getting very light accumulations here back in DEC 88 while areas just to my east did very well. I could see a similar situation panning out this friday...although the energy is aligned such that the heaviest band should be more NNW-SSE oriented rather than due N to due S like that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 In fact, the NOGAPS has trended WAY West in the 18z run vs. the 12z run. Look at the 12z run at 102 hrs, vs. the 18z run at 96 hrs. Same time, yet MUCH further West. And this from a model that has the most suppressive SE Bias! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I could see a similar situation panning out this friday...although the energy is aligned such that the heaviest band should be more NNW-SSE oriented rather than due N to due S like that storm I think that the orientation may be like the GFS but we will probably have to wait a couple of days to nail down the placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 And here is from the 6z run. Honestly, this model is trending West and is maybe more consistent than any other model at this point. It has bombed this storm for the last 3 runs in a row, and has trended further west each time and we are STILL 96 hrs away. And this from a model that has the most suppressive SE Bias! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 These Norlun set ups have a very sharp cutoff to the snow. I can remember getting very light accumulations here back in DEC 88 while areas just to my east did very well. Is that a familiar board member's master's thesis cited in that passage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I tell you, the 18z GEFS members run the gamut. Just looking at H5, you can see everything from OTS, to a Miller A KU, to a Miller B jumping off the coast near 40N, to a true lakes cutter. We have a lot of work to do over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I tell you, the 18z GEFS members run the gamut. Just looking at H5, you can see everything from OTS, to a Miller A KU, to a Miller B jumping off the coast near 40N, to a true lakes cutter. We have a lot of work to do over the next week. honestly, i think alot has to come down to this weekends storm and how strong that 50/50 low gets and how the blocking holds up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I tell you, the 18z GEFS members run the gamut. Just looking at H5, you can see everything from OTS, to a Miller A KU, to a Miller B jumping off the coast near 40N, to a true lakes cutter. We have a lot of work to do over the next week. At least it looks like the longer system one hangs around the snowier the solutions, that is unless it hangs around too long than its OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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