am19psu Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The recency bias present in every discussion about models makes my head hurt. Just because one model performed great/awful last time doesn't mean it is going to perform great/awful this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Who cares about the Srefs..Remember what they did to the last storm? Oh yeah gave me about 8 inches of snow when I got zilch....wont look at them this time around. It's all relative, they were dead on here. They are just as useful as they were two weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 who ever thinks the srefs would nail an extreme cutoff is embarrassing themselves Nam out to 60, closed H5 low over Northern Michigan, light precip overspreading the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 who ever thinks the srefs would nail an extreme cutoff is embarrassing themselves Nam out to 60, closed H5 low over Northern Michigan, light precip overspreading the area And whoever thinks a model or ensemble can nail every single detail of a storm over a 400 mile radius is also fooling themselves. The fact they can do what they do is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Low pressure to our south and east at 75 hrs..light to moderate snow in some areas. Disorganized, but it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The recency bias present in every discussion about models makes my head hurt. Just because one model performed great/awful last time doesn't mean it is going to perform great/awful this time. We're also getting some regional "battles" which are really unnecessary. Weather is something none of have any control over-- just take it as it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 We're also getting some regional "battles" which are really unnecessary. Weather is something none of have any control over-- just take it as it comes. Absolutely + 1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 strung out 992 low off the coast...Moderate snow for Long Island, Light-Moderate for NJ and southern New England..Interesting run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Central and Eastern LI nearing .75" liquid by 78 hrs. .25 towards NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 ETA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 the inverted trof pounds li and sw ct. I like tracking these invertred torfs its pretty neat. If you fall under that in this potential situation someone can see warning criteria snows....whats good about this run is everyone atleast gets 1-3 from dc to nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Nam is 50 miles away from giving NYC metro a moderate snowstorm. Some hope, atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i cant see the inverted trof getting any further S or SW then PHIL. USUALLY accumulating precip wont make it past the area of NYC to LI. anyone from LI heading NE to the Cape could be in the game for a good thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 If we take the 18z NAM literally, some of that could fall as rain on eastern LI given the low-level temps forecast on the NAM and the E to ESE winds east of the inverted trough. Central and Eastern LI nearing .75" liquid by 78 hrs. .25 towards NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Impressive inverted trough solution on the NAM, the coastal gets going to late for most of the area, but the trough gets parts of CT and LI H5 looks great for an inverted solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 JMA is an inland runner lol...primary to OH and then secondary off mid Atlantic snow. Snow/ice/rain for DC It looks more like a Hybrid to me with the primary not anywhere near the ohio valley. It back in MO and you can clearly see a secondary popping off the carolina coast as the isobars are baggy. It may be as you say some kind of mix for DC but certainly could stay all snow. The primary could die right where it is or go a little more NE but with a strong HP in canada it likely doesnt cut verbatim on this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 So is Western LI in the game? I'm a bit confused, is this the "first" event in the Thursday to Friday timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 So is Western LI in the game? I'm a bit confused, is this the "first" event in the Thursday to Friday timeframe? yes, still in the game. it would be friday into friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 So is Western LI in the game? I'm a bit confused, is this the "first" event in the Thursday to Friday timeframe? Read More...Post Less...and you would have already gotten your answers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It looks more like a Hybrid to me with the primary not anywhere near the ohio valley. It back in MO and you can clearly see a secondary popping off the carolina coast as the isobars are baggy. It may be as you say some kind of mix for DC but certainly could stay all snow. The primary could die right where it is or go a little more NE but with a strong HP in canada it likely doesnt cut verbatim on this map. By the way the 168 hour JMA is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The recency bias present in every discussion about models makes my head hurt. Just because one model performed great/awful last time doesn't mean it is going to perform great/awful this time. Almost as played out as the "initialization error" joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 In addition, for those who want the 6 hour precip. output for the UKMET through 72 hours, you can get them here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 If we take the 18z NAM literally, some of that could fall as rain on eastern LI given the low-level temps forecast on the NAM and the E to ESE winds east of the inverted trough. Thats a good reminder. There is also plenty of precedent for that in past [inverted trough / norlun] events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The recency bias present in every discussion about models makes my head hurt. Just because one model performed great/awful last time doesn't mean it is going to perform great/awful this time. There are just some myths that won't go away around here. This is one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It looks more like a Hybrid to me with the primary not anywhere near the ohio valley. It back in MO and you can clearly see a secondary popping off the carolina coast as the isobars are baggy. It may be as you say some kind of mix for DC but certainly could stay all snow. The primary could die right where it is or go a little more NE but with a strong HP in canada it likely doesnt cut verbatim on this map. i was looking at 168 on accuweather where the 1008 low is in Indiana:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i was looking at 168 on accuweather where the 1008 low is in Indiana:( Yeah, didn't see that, that is a bummer. 144 though would make you think it would be ok, obviously it says otherwise. Good things its the JMA at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 72hour 18z GFS pops a weak low off Jersey Coast. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 1st storm is boring on the gfs, very light snow event and the inverted trof sets up in new england...Time to watch the 2nd storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 1st storm is boring on the gfs, very light snow event and the inverted trof sets up in new england...Time to watch the 2nd storm nyc to li does well .25-.5 with the inverted trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Time to watch the second storm next Monday is more like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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