am19psu Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 FWIW, the GFS ops is an amplified almost-outlier compared to the 12z ensemble members at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 okay so bottom line is GFS and EURO show a good snowstorm(not a HECS) and the GGEM is out to lunch. This far away, i am pleased with todays model runs not really... from DC-NYC heaviest precip total through 192 is .25", and that includes the clipper.. Bost and points east make out better with both storms. this is the euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 JMA is an inland runner lol...primary to OH and then secondary off mid Atlantic snow. Snow/ice/rain for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 So...where are we with Thursday Night-Friday snow? Still a chance of a light event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 okay so bottom line is GFS and EURO show a good snowstorm(not a HECS) and the GGEM is out to lunch. This far away, i am pleased with todays model runs I would take all model runs with a grain of salt until after the first storm out of the way(which isn't even set in stone yet).. The good news is they are all showing something next week and if things come together could be something big.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 180 sub 1004 low about 150 miles south of the bm...lgt precip for the area, with lgt to mod over delmarva to phl to nyc and li Hey Tombo...could you give me QPF amounts on the Euro for north central NJ for the inverted trough? Try KSMQ or even Morristown? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks cold and dry after the 11-13th threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 FWIW, the GFS ops is an amplified almost-outlier compared to the 12z ensemble members at H5 If you look at the mean SLP and precip, they are pretty amped up for so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Tom - how much for your selected areas from the 2nd storm on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Tom - how much for your selected areas from the 2nd storm on the Euro? .1-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hey Tombo...could you give me QPF amounts on the Euro for north central NJ for the inverted trough? Try KSMQ or even Morristown? Thanks. .25-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 How can sfc temps be above freezing with 850s of -10, low dew points, and falling precipitation? Another thing that affects ratios, and I don't really care what people say, I've seen it enough times that I know that this is true, is WHERE the storm is coming from. i.e. clippers tend to have higher ratios than GOM lows. With a low level flow out of the southeast I could see parts of LI and coastal NJ inching a few degrees above freezing during the day on Friday. But as you said, with falling precip I would expect everyone NW of there to be AOB 32F. I don't think ratios would be great until Fri night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 240 has a pig of a pv getting ready to drop into northern plains.,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 240 has a pig of a pv getting ready to drop into northern plains.,, Flattening our ridge out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It seems like the GFS and Euro never agree with each other this winter. I'd take the GFS obviously in this case, and the Euro could catch on as it gets into closer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Let's keep this thread about the upcoming potential storm threat and not about climo for different regions. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 meanwhile.....we're chasing a clipper and an inverted trough this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Instead of discussing DC vs NYC (which I have participated in MANY times to no avail... a mod needs to separate those posts into another thread...) Let's talk about how, rolled forward a day or two, the 12z EURO is showing an historic arctic outbreak: While NYC is simply cold and not absolutely frigid most of the run, obviously that would change around the 15th. Should something like what is shown above indeed occur, I would not be surprised if NY saw a few days with highs below 20 and lows approaching 0 around the 16th-20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Instead of discussing DC vs NYC (which I have participated in MANY times to no avail... a mod needs to separate those posts into another thread...) Let's talk about how, rolled forward a day or two, the 12z EURO is showing an historic arctic outbreak: While NYC is simply cold and not absolutely frigid most of the run, obviously that would change around the 15th. Should something like what is shown above indeed occur, I would not be surprised if NY saw a few days with highs below 20 and lows approaching 0 around the 16th-20th. -30 air under that pv in south central canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Also of note--while some have been saying the NAO breaks down in the medium range, guess what's rearing it's head again by 240... we have ridging over Greenland and eastern Quebec. My guess is that by the 16th-17th the EURO would (extrapolated) show another hugely west-based -NAO... perhaps this does indeed happen and we get a repeat of December with another major storm to close out the month, with the new Baffin Block emerging (AGAIN!)? I'm beginning to think it's possible we see a week + of below freezing temperatures (or at least sub-35) in the city... unlike most Januarys where we get a thaw in the middle, this cold is coming at our climatological coldest time of year. Average highs are only in the upper 30s anyways, so an extended period of sub freezing highs certainly seems reasonable should we retain snowpack (we should) and should the upper air setup depicted even slightly verify. At this point, I think it's very possible NYC sees a more anomalously cold January than December was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 15z SREF's are much wetter compared to the last three runs...most of the area over 0.25" liquid. I would assume there are some far west solutions within the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Also of note--while some have been saying the NAO breaks down in the medium range, guess what's rearing it's head again by 240... we have ridging over Greenland and eastern Quebec. My guess is that by the 16th-17th the EURO would (extrapolated) show another hugely west-based -NAO... perhaps this does indeed happen and we get a repeat of December with another major storm to close out the month, with the new Baffin Block emerging (AGAIN!)? I'm beginning to think it's possible we see a week + of below freezing temperatures (or at least sub-35) in the city... unlike most Januarys where we get a thaw in the middle, this cold is coming at our climatological coldest time of year. Average highs are only in the upper 30s anyways, so an extended period of sub freezing highs certainly seems reasonable should we retain snowpack (we should) and should the upper air setup depicted even slightly verify. At this point, I think it's very possible NYC sees a more anomalously cold January than December was. Nik, I saw some say we actually want to see the -NAO break down temporarily to reload the cold air.... and this might be whats happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah, some of these members are really wet IRT the inverted trough..mainly the NMM and ETA suites http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PCNTOTNE_15z/f87.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 15z srefs hammering the inverted trof idea in this region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 15z SREF's are much wetter compared to the last three runs...most of the area over 0.25" liquid. I would assume there are some far west solutions within the mean. I'm not being fooled by the SREFs again after they had us getting 0.50+ of QPF 24 hours before the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Why do the forecast spread colors so closely match the precip contours? 15z SREF's are much wetter compared to the last three runs...most of the area over 0.25" liquid. I would assume there are some far west solutions within the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The map is a close fit with the situation 3-5 days before extreme cold reaches the East. 5 days before the extreme cold, there is a large area of 850 mb temperatures < -25°C in Canada; the core of the coldest surface temperature anomalies appears to be aimed at the Northern Plains/Great Lakes region and even covering part of the Northern Plains. 3 days before the extreme cold, there is both a large area of 850 mb temperatures < -25°C in Canada and also a significant area of -30°C to -28°C 850 mb temperatures in Canada; the extreme cold is overspreading the Great Lakes region Composite 850 mb Temperatures 5 days before extreme cold cases: Composite 850 mb Temperatures 3 days before extreme cold cases: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The NAM and SREF means singlehandedly nailed the last inverted trough set-up a couple weeks back in the SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The NAM and SREF means singlehandedly nailed the last inverted trough set-up a couple weeks back in the SNE. placement yea they were, but the qpf was horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I don't think any model nailed every area correctly. The fact is they still did quite well with the heavy snow along the coast and NYC area so you can't just discount them. Who cares about the Srefs..Remember what they did to the last storm? Oh yeah gave me about 8 inches of snow when I got zilch....wont look at them this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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