tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 132 has a sub 1008 low over savannah ga....lgt precip up to almost central va.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This is a way different solution than we've seen. At 120, I'm more worried about it missing OTS than missing west. Agreed here. I think this pattern would favor OTS before a cutter. I'd rather deal with suppression this far out over looking for the models to correct eastward ala Dec 19th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 thanks for including ABE in the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 At 132, the GFS is ridging over Michigan, while the Euro has the polar vortex overtop the state. Questions >> Answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 not really, ill take 1-2 inches from this setup any day. Looks like 3-6 will be the max squeezed from this in Jackpot areas as of now from Storm 1 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 138 sub 1008 low ots....plains storm gathering energy the hgts are rising more so on the east coast but there is still a pig of a block with a good 50/50 low and another pv over huron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like 3-6 will be the max squeezed from this in Jackpot areas as of now from Storm 1 ? yea where ever that inverted troff sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Day 6 5H http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Day 6 Surface http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Seems that way right now. I know some are saying high ratios because of cold 850 temps but I'm wondering if surface temps near or above freezing would mean a wetter type snow? Looks like 3-6 will be the max squeezed from this in Jackpot areas as of now from Storm 1 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 150 the storm in the southern plains is just sitting there...pv still located over great lakes but its moving, 50/50 low has moved awy....still a wall of blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 156 has an area of lgt precip from tx to eastern ks and western mo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I wouldn't take anything to the bank regarding storm #1. Since it looks like we're going to be reliant on the inverted trough for decent snows, it's almost a guarantee that you'll see its SE-NW orientation change over the coming model runs. The band could very well set up over PHL,SNJ, so you guys shouldn't be writing this off just yet. I've still got 4-6" of cement on the ground here, so I'd be more than happy with a 3-6" replenisher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Seems that way right now. I know some are saying high ratios because of cold 850 temps but I'm wondering if surface temps near or above freezing would mean a wetter type snow? How can sfc temps be above freezing with 850s of -10, low dew points, and falling precipitation? Another thing that affects ratios, and I don't really care what people say, I've seen it enough times that I know that this is true, is WHERE the storm is coming from. i.e. clippers tend to have higher ratios than GOM lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I wouldn't take anything to the bank regarding storm #1. Since it looks like we're going to be reliant on the inverted trough for decent snows, it's almost a guarantee that you'll see its SE-NW orientation change over the coming model runs. The band could very well set up over PHL,SNJ, so you guys shouldn't be writing this off just yet. I've still got 4-6" of cement on the ground here, so I'd be more than happy with a 3-6" replenisher. Me too, it would freshen everything up just perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 At 132, the GFS is ridging over Michigan, while the Euro has the polar vortex overtop the state. Questions >> Answers. That is close. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 162 just has a couple area of lgt precip...the trof is really digging down into tx, the frz line is bout to come into houston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 162 just has a couple area of lgt precip...the trof is really digging down into tx, the frz line is bout to come into houston... superstorm? EDIT: how are the heights along the EC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 168 has a sub 1016 low off cape fear...lgt precip ky,tn,wva. southern oh and in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Day 7 5H http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Day 7 Surface http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 174 sub 1012 low about 100 miles east of hse...lgt precip nyc south...lgt to mod precip dc to ric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The the 12z model suit has left me scratching my head. Euro rushes the south west energy and escapes the new energy coming down to have a light even for the south east. The Canadian phase it all together and occludes the whole package out west over Iowa. GFS splits the energy a bit.. but mostly keeps it in tact and has primary go into Ohio before transferring the energy to a new low along the east coast! :X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Day 7 700mb RH http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Day 7 850 mb RH http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Day 7 5H http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest thats some elongated pv over the lakes into SE canada. i think there is a chance of a "sling shot" storm where the pv rotates around the GL and energy comes dips down underneath and pops a sfc low off the EC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 180 sub 1004 low about 150 miles south of the bm...lgt precip for the area, with lgt to mod over delmarva to phl to nyc and li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 186 just some lgt precip as the storm is moving ots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 okay so bottom line is GFS and EURO show a good snowstorm(not a HECS) and the GGEM is out to lunch. This far away, i am pleased with todays model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The the 12z model suit has left me scratching my head. Euro rushes the south west energy and escapes the new energy coming down to have a light even for the south east. The Canadian phase it all together and occludes the whole package out west over Iowa. GFS splits the energy a bit.. but mostly keeps it in tact and has primary go into Ohio before transferring the energy to a new low along the east coast! :X GEFS/ECENS blend FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 FWIW, the GFS ops is an amplified almost-outlier compared to the 12z ensemble members at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.