mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 DAY 3 Surface http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Not being a downer.....just being realistic. Inverted troughs rarely pan out as much as they're shown on the models. Its like hitting the lottery. I just don't wear the snow goggles that you guys do when looking at patterns and the models. If something doesn't look like it'll work out or the pattern stinks then you should be able to voice that opinion. Sorry but that's life. Dont be such a downer, youre still in the game. Do you remember there was an inverted trough back in Feb 09 that gave Philly 8-10 inches of snow? You guys had two 8+ events that season and it was a La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 78 has an inverted trof like set up...lgt precip over area with lgt to mod over central pa.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Not being a downer.....just being realistic. Inverted troughs rarely pan out as much as they're shown on the models. Its like hitting the lottery. I just don't wear the snow goggles that you guys do when looking at patterns and the models. If something doesn't look like it'll work out or the pattern stinks then you should be able to voice that opinion. Sorry but that's life. You are certainly entitled to your opinion but you dont have to repeat it so it becomes annoying. Over the last two days you have been very repetitive. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 84 inverted trof setting up over nyc and li and cnetral and northern nj into extreme ne pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Day 3 5H http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest the only reason you should be in this thread right now(the early part of the euro run is if you you think euro will show that magical solution it had 2 nights ago:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 90 has lgt precip over the area, with still an inverted troff like setup...big difference at h5, the pv is a lot stronger and way further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 84 inverted trof setting up over nyc and li and cnetral and northern nj into extreme ne pa FIM says the same thing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 PV a good bit stronger at 90, and the coastal seems to bit a bit more NE than 0z at this time frame.. The block is also retograding a bit more west this run( it looks to be the more it retros, the stonger the PV becomes, compression factor?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 96 storm is lifting out...but a big pv pig is just sitting over the lakes where 0z didnt have that...so not sure how this is going to play into storm number 2 qpf totals nyc .25-.5 phl .1-.25 dc .05-.01 balt .1 ttn .1-.25 hazleton .25-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Day 4 5H http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 96 storm is lifting out...but a big pv pig is just sitting over the lakes where 0z didnt have that...so not sure how this is going to play into storm number 2 qpf totals nyc .25-.5 phl .1-.25 dc .05-.01 balt .1 ttn .1-.25 hazleton .25-.5 Hey - wouldja mind adding ABE to your standard list of outputs? I'm sure there are enough people between Hazleton and Philly who care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hey - wouldja mind adding ABE to your standard list of outputs? I'm sure there are enough people between Hazleton and Philly who care. lol haha sorry... abe is .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hey - wouldja mind adding ABE to your standard list of outputs? I'm sure there are enough people between Hazleton and Philly who care. .25" on the dot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 game set and match for VA/MD/Philly IAD .04 BWI .11 PHL .13 NYC has .27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 thanks again Tombo for ur work here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 game set and match for VA/MD/Philly IAD .04 BWI .11 PHL .13 NYC has .27 not really, ill take 1-2 inches from this setup any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 96 storm is lifting out...but a big pv pig is just sitting over the lakes where 0z didnt have that...so not sure how this is going to play into storm number 2 qpf totals nyc .25-.5 phl .1-.25 dc .05-.01 balt .1 ttn .1-.25 hazleton .25-.5 You would think it would be harder to take it to the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 120 has the pv spread out from the lakes to the northeast...so unless the pv drops down on the back side this may have trouble coming north...we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 not really, ill take 1-2 inches from this setup any day. shud be decent ratios though so maybe 2-4" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 You would think it would be harder to take it to the lakes. yea i just said that at hr 120, the pv is stretched basically from the lakes through the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 You would think it would be harder to take it to the lakes. This is a way different solution than we've seen. At 120, I'm more worried about it missing OTS than missing west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Day 5 5H http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 126 sub 1004 low over se ga...lgt precip up to southern va...also precip over the rockies starting to spill into the plains, but they remain separate right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 yea. the big pv over the lakes pretty much squashes any mixing issues. but it brings the OTS in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Bos gets .33. Is that going to be enough for Ray or does he need 2.33? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 N American View Day 5 5H http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This is a way different solution than we've seen. At 120, I'm more worried about it missing OTS than missing west. Can the PV split? That would probably still be an out to sea solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 what might happen is the first storm slides ots but brings some precip into the dc area, then all the bread and butter goes into the plains storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Not to be obnoxious, but I think who posted that was just trying to be helpful. The times when it's rain in DC but there heavy snow in Philly and New York from a storm are really quite rare. If I was in Philly or NY and heard DC is going to get rain, I would be more than nervous that I could face a similar fate. Not saying it's never happened, but it's rare, especially if you are in Philly proper. Not rare at all; happens many times in a normal winter, especially comparing NYC to DC. Look at climate averages and the stats support this. Include the inland burbs of NY and the differences are enormous, about 500% more snow on average than DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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