yankeex777 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 wow that 192hr is dumping big snows Does this thing tap the gulf at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 not to be obnoxious but you realize this is a NYC/PHL thread in the NYC/PHL regional forum, right? And, I'm assuming most of us can tell what the GFS is depicting for DC, but thanks for the update. Not to be obnoxious, but I think who posted that was just trying to be helpful. The times when it's rain in DC but there heavy snow in Philly and New York from a storm are really quite rare. If I was in Philly or NY and heard DC is going to get rain, I would be more than nervous that I could face a similar fate. Not saying it's never happened, but it's rare, especially if you are in Philly proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 One 50 mile wide area will get some decent snow from the Norlun and most likely it'll be SNE.....otherwise yes its going in the garbage with maybe a couple of inches. Lol the NAM is closer to a decent event than it ever was. It's going into the garbage, really? With one breath you say the norlun feature has been waffling 250 miles back and forth and yet you say this event is done. You are contradicting yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 One 50 mile wide area will get some decent snow from the Norlun and most likely it'll be SNE.....otherwise yes its going in the garbage with maybe a couple of inches. if you think a couple of inches is garbage then you either dont like snow or are just here to cause trouble. If you don't like snow, that is fine, but constantly posting that a threat is garbage when its still 84-90 hours away isn't productive to a good discussion of what is a very complicated synoptic setup we could all learn about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Not to be obnoxious, but I think who posted that was just trying to be helpful. The times when it's rain in DC but there heavy snow in Philly and New York from a storm are really quite rare. If I was in Philly or NY and heard DC is going to get rain, I would be more than nervous that I could face a similar fate. Not saying it's never happened, but it's rare, especially if you are in Philly proper. In a set up like the GFS is showing (primary west with redeveloping low off the coast) you couldn't be further from the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Not to be obnoxious, but I think who posted that was just trying to be helpful. The times when it's rain in DC but there heavy snow in Philly and New York from a storm are really quite rare. If I was in Philly or NY and heard DC is going to get rain, I would be more than nervous that I could face a similar fate. Not saying it's never happened, but it's rare, especially if you are in Philly proper. Taking the GFS as is, PHL would be a ptype potpourri , there were many GEFS members that ran the gamut even last night. That being said its a week away and I really don't know the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Not to be obnoxious, but I think who posted that was just trying to be helpful. The times when it's rain in DC but there heavy snow in Philly and New York from a storm are really quite rare. If I was in Philly or NY and heard DC is going to get rain, I would be more than nervous that I could face a similar fate. Not saying it's never happened, but it's rare, especially if you are in Philly proper. So basically, from now on, we should have the SE report to the MA, the MA report to NYC/PHL, NYC/PHL report to SNE and so on....all in the interest of being helpful of course. These things are all connected you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Taking the GFS as is, PHL would be a ptype potpourri , there were many GEFS members that ran the gamut even last night. That being said its a week away and I really don't know the outcome. Thank you. That is what I'm saying. It's insane for people in Philly to be rooting for rain in DC while they expect to stay all snow. But, your right, at least the storm is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 There is an issue with the 12hr precip totals valid at hr 192 (look at the 24 hour total valid at that time instead....still good). Here's the SDM message (there was an problem introduced in the post processing with the summer GFS upgrade): "SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1526Z THU DEC 23 2010 ATTN...GFS MODEL INFORMATION.. AN INCONSISTENCY HAS BEEN UNCOVERED IN THE GFS 12 HR ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AT FORECAST HOUR 192. THE 12 HR ACCUMULATION DOES NOT REPRODUCE THE SUM OF THE PREVIOUS 2 SIX HOUR ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ERROR WAS INTRODUCED WITH THE 27 JULY RESOLUTION INCREASE. WE HOPE TO IMPLEMENT A CORRECTION BY THE END OF JANUARY, 2011. AN ANNOUNCEMENT WITH THE ACTUAL IMPLEMENTATION DATE WILL BE MADE AS SOON AS IT IS DETERMINED. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE ADDRESSED TO [email protected] " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GGEM showing a major cutter for the storm next week......wonder if the Euro follows suit. That would be entertaining. GGEM redevelops, but later than the GFS, and the storm isn't as strong. Should be yet another entertaining run of the Euro next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 whatever happens with the secondary low developing on the coast next week it sure will be brrrrrr across th USA after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Euro has started.. Who's got the PBP? if not, ill do it. TOMBO!!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 alright lets see what the doc can prescribe for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Euro has started.. Who's got the PBP? if not, ill do it. TOMBO!!?? il chime in if i see something interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Euro has started.. Who's got the PBP? if not, ill do it. TOMBO!!?? if u wanna do it bri go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 if u wanna do it bri go for it. Nah its cool. thats your bread and butter. Ill chime in with some h5 comparisons to the 0z run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 through 30 the pv over hudson bay is further south. The trof is more amplified and further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The ridge is alittle more ampd, and the PV over S central Canda is further SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 h5 @ 24 looks a bit sharper throughout.Sharper ridge, PV a wee bit more south.. Not sure if it will make a hige differenec from 0z.. But let's see how it plays out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 the southern storm, skirting along the gom is a good bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This is what I was saying all day yesterday....the weekend event is going to be garbage really.....light snows at best likely.......next week is the real deal. There will likely be a Norlun feature this weekend but its been everywhere from PHL to Boston on the models so thats a complete crapshoot and someone will get very lucky. Otherwise a few inches maybe to freshen up the scenary in advance of a real storm. Dont be such a downer, youre still in the game. Do you remember there was an inverted trough back in Feb 09 that gave Philly 8-10 inches of snow? You guys had two 8+ events that season and it was a La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 at 42, western lobe of pv is stronger and not escaping back NW into canada. Ridges are trying to keep it south, so that western lobe is a little bit stronger. trough sharper by a degree or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Day 2 5H http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 54 the pv lobe is further west, the trof axis is also a little further west...weak 1004 low over eastern mich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 the energy is more consolodated over the lakes, could argue more digging, and the trof is sharper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 through hr 66, the trof is a lot sharper..sub 996 low over the eastern tip of lake huron...sub 1008 cliper low diving down into nd.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hmm, 66 pV i almost identical spot as 0z, but the trough underneath it has a nice V shape, compared to the broader Umbrella shape it had at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Day 3 5H http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 72, neg tilt v shaped troughed with the apex/bottom by the carolinas... tombo, hows the surface look? 0z was still a pretty round trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 through hr 72, the h5 differences over the great lakes are pretty different again. The 12z run has a stornger pv lobe a good bit further west, where the 0z was more consolidated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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