Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Calm down. you'll get your snow Sounds to me like an east central pa screw over to me again. Can a trough ever sit over us for a change? Funny- tons of rain in in the early summer but cannot squeeze out a flake in the winter. This pattern cannot keep going like this. Its not normal. What ever happen to the repetitious 2-6 inch snow events? These 20 inch or nothing snow events is enough too give a forecaster a heart attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 EDIT: energy diving down. PV displaced pretty far S. someone will get hit on Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Inverted trough brings mod/heavy snow to NYC north this run. Most of the rest of the region sees .1+" QPF. U making stuff up ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 U making stuff up ? NYC and north recieve .50"-.75" of QPF with cold air aloft. It's from an unpredictable inverted trough feature though which will change another 10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 just a brieft shot of the clipper on fri nite then the low re-developes off the EC but too late for anyone NYC and south. SNE looks to get in on some action obv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 just a brieft shot of the clipper on fri nite then the low re-developes off the EC but too late for anyone NYC and south. SNE looks to get in on some action obv. NYC is in the inverted trough feature. Either way, it will change many more times though as inverted troughs are very volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NYC is in the inverted trough feature. Either way, it will change many more times though as inverted troughs are very volatile. yea. so far this winter these troughs havent panned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NYC is in the inverted trough feature. Either way, it will change many more times though as inverted troughs are very volatile. Looks like about .25 - .50 from NJ - NYC more north Friday morning into the evening then more light snow/showers on Satruday,. Long Island and North of NYC 0.50 (+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 174 next (mid week) storm taking shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 An even better map. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Long range looks very nice...would like to see a sharper trough but we have alot of time to work this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 what's so funny about those maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 what's so funny about those maps? Repeat of 12/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like another Jersey special, but I hate being in the bullseye this far out as this thing will probably disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I may be remembering incorrectly, but I dont believe there has been a year with so many modeled MECS/HECS in the mid-long range. Its ridiculous and if even 1 out of 5 pan out we still may end up with 1 a month. Whatever happened to run of the mill 2-4 3-6 type storms? Starting from March 2009, we have had 5 straight storms that could be considered MECS/HECS with NOT one intermediate snow storm under 8 inches and over 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The ridge out west for storm #2 is an absolute Beast. And it spikes and maxes out at the perfect time. Atleast its under 200 hrs this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 according to Dt the 12gfs show rain and sleet for dc for next weeks event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The ridge out west for storm #2 is an absolute Beast. And it spikes and maxes out at the perfect time. Atleast its under 200 hrs this time The ridge looks really impressive. The trough? Looks a friggin mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 according to Dt the 12gfs show rain and sleet for dc for next weeks event Per soundings (just out of curiousity, as it's way too far out to worry about them), NYC would also have possible rain/mixed precipitation or very wet snow at the start that would transition to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Calm down. you'll get your snow If you lived in the area, I'm sure you'd be singing the same tune . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 according to Dt the 12gfs show rain and sleet for dc for next weeks event Sounds about right for DC and prolly ACY at the onset of this, according to this 12z gfs run. But it would switch over to snow( for ACY, that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The ridge looks really impressive. The trough? Looks a friggin mess yeah, the trough is alittle broad but i dont think it matters. The storm isnt going to cut, i actually think if the trough was sharper it would cut up the apps, but the broader trough and the mega block allows it to amplify and pop a storm off the coast and decimate the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 One thing that concerns me also is the period directly following storm #2 which looks extremely volatile also. The ridge out west really pumps and the trough is deep and the tilt is negative. All you need is a little energy in the base of the trough to create some potential. The model looks threatening in the JAN 15-17 period but does not show anything. If the pattern aloft comes close to what the GFS is possibly portraying, then that period also has potential for a snowstorm. No matter how you slice it, the pattern is loaded with potential, and it is probably only a matter of time before the area receives another snowfall. So right now 7-9, 11-13, 15-17 not to shabby. We shall see how things evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 according to Dt the 12gfs show rain and sleet for dc for next weeks event not to be obnoxious but you realize this is a NYC/PHL thread in the NYC/PHL regional forum, right? And, I'm assuming most of us can tell what the GFS is depicting for DC, but thanks for the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 wow that 192hr is dumping big snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 according to Dt the 12gfs show rain and sleet for dc for next weeks event DT is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This is what I was saying all day yesterday....the weekend event is going to be garbage really.....light snows at best likely.......next week is the real deal. There will likely be a Norlun feature this weekend but its been everywhere from PHL to Boston on the models so thats a complete crapshoot and someone will get very lucky. Otherwise a few inches maybe to freshen up the scenary in advance of a real storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7below Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hey everyone, Just found out about this board recently. You guys are amazing. Most of what is discussed is still foreign to me but I am picking things up fast. Really do appreciate all the up-to-the-minute posting and the reads on the different runs. Keep it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This is what I was saying all day yesterday....the weekend event is going to be garbage really.....light snows at best likely.......next week is the real deal. There will likely be a Norlun feature this weekend but its been everywhere from PHL to Boston on the models so thats a complete crapshoot and someone will get very lucky. Otherwise a few inches maybe to freshen up the scenary in advance of a real storm. Lol the NAM is closer to a decent event than it ever was. It's going into the garbage, really? With one breath you say the norlun feature has been waffling 250 miles back and forth and yet you say this event is done. You are contradicting yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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