bluehens Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Having the PV come down that far off of NC is a pipedream. It needs to keep being reiterated that if the clipper pops a coastal off of NJ then everybody south of Trenton will see maybe some minor accumulation at best. This weekend is a NYC and north threat really. to my understanding.......that is pretty much how DT is thinking about the upcoming 2 storms too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You have a shot at 2-6 but not the PHL area is what I said. LOL. Seriously. Even if Euro is wrong, we all still have a decent shot at 2" to up to 6". And people want to look at 200 hours? Really dont get some posters on this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Having the PV come down that far off of NC is a pipedream. It needs to keep being reiterated that if the clipper pops a coastal off of NJ then everybody south of Trenton will see maybe some minor accumulation at best. This weekend is a NYC and north threat really. The Euro phases into it a southern piece of energy, which provides a means for the PV lobe to dive SE like it does and phase. The GFS doesn't have this southern piece at all, and the NAM seems to have it to a degree. I think that could be important for us and you guys as well, since it would definitely pull the system down and cause it to form further south than if there was no southern feature at all like the GFS. But I don't think any one solution can be discounted right now given the variance and volatility of the pattern. The more ridging in Canada the better, the more consolidated the energy diving through the PV the better, the more of a southern feature there is the better. Luckily though there seems to be several ways to at least salvage a decent event for this area (maybe down to you). Baltimore south really does need a perfect scenario for them to see anything appreciable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Nobody in the PHL area cares about possible accumulating snowfall for NY this Friday......most people down here are concerned about the non-Miller B threat. :axe: You're not out of it yet, at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Nobody in the PHL area cares about possible accumulating snowfall for NY this Friday......most people down here are concerned about the non-Miller B threat. I did not know you spoke for the masses...perhaps you should come back when you feel a threat is possible for phl....because right now ur just saying the same thing...over and over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Nobody in the PHL area cares about possible accumulating snowfall for NY this Friday......most people down here are concerned about the non-Miller B threat. Speak for yourself. When did you become the spokesperson for everyone in the Philly area? And why be concerned about a threat that is 10 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Having the PV come down that far off of NC is a pipedream. It needs to keep being reiterated that if the clipper pops a coastal off of NJ then everybody south of Trenton will see maybe some minor accumulation at best. This weekend is a NYC and north threat really. cool, I Guess i wont read this thread till next week since you can read the future without looking at model runs, i mean you gave great meteorological evidence of why its not possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Nobody in the PHL area cares about possible accumulating snowfall for NY this Friday......most people down here are concerned about the non-Miller B threat. You're a broken record and I promise people are beginning to get annoyed with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Nobody in the PHL area cares about possible accumulating snowfall for NY this Friday......most people down here are concerned about the non-Miller B threat. We definitely need to split you guys back into your own subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Can anybody produce an example of when the entire PV actually did get displaced with its center over VA/NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 We definitely need to split you guys blue hens back into your his own subforum. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Can anybody produce an example of when the entire PV actually did get displaced with its center over VA/NC? early march 2001 early feb 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 HPC mentioned '78 as a potential analog. But I think the odds are saying these situations are very rare and unlikely. early march 2001 early feb 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Speak for yourself. When did you become the spokesperson for everyone in the Philly area? And why be concerned about a threat that is 10 days out? His post is literally the phrase of a genuine weenie. Lets skip the potential that is within the mid range and go right to the fantasy solution in the long range. Just hilarious. All you can do is laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah, i'd say bluehens is about to get his very own 5 day post limit. From behalf the philly crew, we apologize. At least Ji is funny when he says stuff like that. I think the thread works out ust fine with PHilly/NYC included. Granted, you guys took over last storm, but rightly so. Good bunch of people in here, Ams and Pro's alike. Lets keep the good disco going and ignore the skitzos.... 6z Gfs keeps this a NYC north special for the clipper. PV stays north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z rolling now... out to 54 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html Yeah, i'd say bluehens is about to get his very own 5 day post limit. From behalf the philly crew, we apologize. At least Ji is funny when he says stuff like that. I think the thread works out ust fine with PHilly/NYC included. Granted, you guys took over last storm, but rightly so. Good bunch of people in here, Ams and Pro's alike. Lets keep the good disco going and ignore the skitzos.... 6z Gfs keeps this a NYC north special for the clipper. PV stays north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 HPC mentioned '78 as a potential analog. But I think the odds are saying these situations are very rare and unlikely. How many damn times must you repeat this today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yep...Philly only gets hit with a significant snow 75% of the time with Miller B's....just move on folks the Blue Hen has spoken! Nobody in the PHL area cares about possible accumulating snowfall for NY this Friday......most people down here are concerned about the non-Miller B threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think the thread works out ust fine with PHilly/NYC included. Granted, you guys took over last storm, but rightly so. Good bunch of people in here, Ams and Pro's alike. Lets keep the good disco going and ignore the skitzos.... Agreed. 12z gfs rolling out to 54 and no major dfferences from 06z yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 There are a couple people in this thread begging for a post restriction. Clean it up or you'll be five posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This year the Euro has been digging systems too far south or the dc area would have had 3 major snowstorms this year already. It would take perfect phasing for the euro to be right. I'm not discounting the chances of a storm but think the euro is wrong in how far south it digs the 500 energy and therefore how far south it forms and bombs out the low. However, I am getting increasingly optimistic that we'll see something around the middle of the month. 60% of the D+11 analogs now show dates of storms that produced 1 inch or more within the 5 day window of the centered mean (jan 14). That's an usually high percentage. The limo average is about 21 percent of the years produce a one inch snowfall between Jan 12-jan 16. My thinking also, plus the euro seems to like jazzing up systems along the coast this year. The analogs only showed one 4 inch or more storms in the dc area. Not sure what happened further north. Still the nao is getting to be in a good place and the model is showing a 50 50 low developing with the convoluted clipper so the pattern does look interesting. I'm not yet willing to jump on the euro second storm either but think it has a better chance than the 1st for down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 at 87, the pv is between hudson bay and the lakes, on the eastern periphery. Doesn't seem like it wants to dig south on this, so i doubt we get another 0z euro solution..90. its sitting over the same spot and not digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Back on topic, looking at the 500 mb maps, looks like energy up in Canada is a lot stronger/sharper this run. Am I just looking at things, mets? Or does this afftect our storm at all? 06z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 500 at 90 is looking much better. Digging much more than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 102 broad area of low pressure forming off norfolk.....light snow for ohio valley and mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 108 250 miles east of delware 990...its just a tad late this run....def dive the energy further south..it might get captured in time for li and sne... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z definitely seems to be going with the more consolidated area of energy this run which causes it to dig more. Good trend overall but still no southern interaction like the Euro and NAM show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 coastal off hatteras about 200miles 105.. by 111, its S/SE of benchmark.. 111 has a 988 low.. through 114, .10 qpf DC- NYC... boston maybe .25. coastal SE maine gets a good hit, same with the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 powerhouse of a storm crushing cape cod and downeast maine...will def have a serious threat here guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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