jrodd321 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NAM has the new coastal very close to coast and appears it would hit some of us. Agreed, I think this would make a lot of people very happy if it went out a little further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 12z NAM gives PHL 0.25" QPF through the end of the run, given 850mb temp of ~ -8C, that would mean about 4-5" ABE gets 0.42", which would be 7-8" of powder. this is according to the ratio calculator I use, although it seems to high to me: http://www.wxalert.info/calc/snow.php nice to dream but remember it is the 84hr NAM, and the PV is waaay far south on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Are these NAM runs for the "first potential storm" this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 actually upon further review, the PV position at hr 78 of the 12z NAM and hr 84 of the 06z are very similar. when i said south, i was referring to the 6z GFS position at hr 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 good sign. we need this clipper to bomb out over the Gulf of ME though...so whatever it does for us, thats a bonus imo. cuz what i see out west on the 84hr nam looks very very interesting. so a good 50/50L will set the stage for what looks like a mid week event next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 There is a precip max somewhere near Allentown of .502 12z NAM gives PHL 0.25" QPF through the end of the run, given 850mb temp of ~ -8C, that would mean about 4-5" ABE gets 0.42", which would be 7-8" of powder. this is according to the ratio calculator I use, although it seems to high to me: http://www.wxalert.info/calc/snow.php nice to dream but remember it is the 84hr NAM, and the PV is waaay far south on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 There is a precip max somewhere near Allentown of .502 wow. with -8C, that would be 9.0" but it looks like a lot of that is just from the inverted trough. although it's tough to distinghuish whats form the trof and whats from the extra energy on this run. someone between CT and PHL is going to get unexpectantly hammered with this inverted trough. not sure i buy the coastal idea yet, unless other models come around to 1) better ridge out west 2) farther south PV like the 12z NAM have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It is diving that energy much further south and there is southern stream interaction that was not there previously. The potential here is huge. wow. with -8C, that would be 9.0" but it looks like a lot of that is just from the inverted trough. although it's tough to distinghuish whats form the trof and whats from the extra energy on this run. someone between CT and PHL is going to get unexpectantly hammered with this inverted trough. not sure i buy the coastal idea yet, unless other models come around to 1) better ridge out west 2) farther south PV like the 12z NAM have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I go to Kean university..it's a short drive from my house. I'm a third year meteorology student currently Kean huh? Im a Kean alumni. And by alumni i mean i went for 2 years and partied way more than I studied and they kicked me out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 With the MECS we had it appeared as though the models were underestimating the amount of energy dropping in from the midwest. Could we possibly be looking at a repeat? The GFS was the first one to catch on last time and that was the infamous "initialization errors" run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 John, Please try to get into the NWS, you would be an asset. Don't let the system discourage you. You're a sharp met, don't let it go to waste. If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to pm or e-mail me. (This would hold for Mike too). Ditto^2. At the same time, remember that the path to the NWS is not necessarily a straight/short one...am living proof of that. If you really want to get into the NWS badly enough, keep the goal always in front of you, conform as many of your life decisions as possible to achieving that goal, and keep chipping away. Also Google up some quotes on persistence and tattoo them on your forehead so you can see them first thing in the morning each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I go to Kean university..it's a short drive from my house. I'm a third year meteorology student currently yea I really hope we meet each other one day as you know I'm a frosh there for meteorology as well. Now that I moved to Roselle Park, we are closer to each other as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethlehemBlizzard Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Sorry to break the flow, but there has been a lot of talk about "Norlun" features recently on this blog. Can someone please explain to an idiot what a "norlun" feature is? Thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 double barrel low and inverted trough features keep popping up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I attended the seminar that Paul Kocin held at Kean about two years back...it was very interesting and I was in my glory being around all the other winter weather weenies lol. He was out promoting his book at the time and since then he has a few more chapters to write after last winter and this one. I hope he decides to come back again. For the met students out their, what level of math is involved? I've always been interested in going after a degree but I think my math skills might be lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I attended the seminar that Paul Kocin held at Kean about two years back...it was very interesting and I was in my glory being around all the other winter weather weenies lol. He was out promoting his book at the time and since then he has a few more chapters to write after last winter and this one. I hope he decides to come back again. For the met students out their, what level of math is involved? I've always been interested in going after a degree but I think my math skills might be lacking. I majored in Environment Science with a concentration in Atmospheric Science. I had to take up to Calc 3 and atmospheric dynamics which is calculus based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I attended the seminar that Paul Kocin held at Kean about two years back...it was very interesting and I was in my glory being around all the other winter weather weenies lol. He was out promoting his book at the time and since then he has a few more chapters to write after last winter and this one. I hope he decides to come back again. For the met students out their, what level of math is involved? I've always been interested in going after a degree but I think my math skills might be lacking. I was there for that seminar with Kocin. I purchased the books at the discounted price for the people that were present. I'm happy I was able to make it ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I attended the seminar that Paul Kocin held at Kean about two years back...it was very interesting and I was in my glory being around all the other winter weather weenies lol. He was out promoting his book at the time and since then he has a few more chapters to write after last winter and this one. I hope he decides to come back again. For the met students out their, what level of math is involved? I've always been interested in going after a degree but I think my math skills might be lacking. I was there as well. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Sorry to break the flow, but there has been a lot of talk about "Norlun" features recently on this blog. Can someone please explain to an idiot what a "norlun" feature is? Thanks!!! is sort of our version of lake effect snow. but we use the atlantic ocean instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I was there for that seminar with Kocin. I purchased the books at the discounted price for the people that were present. I'm happy I was able to make it ! Earthlight and I were there too. As for the math, you need 3 semesters of calculus (Calc I, II, and Multivariable Calculus) and a semester of Differential Equations (which may as well be Calc IV). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 thats so cool guys, I wish he came now while I was there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 and you need precalc, Calc I and II and differential equations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 12z GFS rolling...anyone want to take it away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks very similar to me through 54hrs with its 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Anyone commenting on the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Inverted trough brings mod/heavy snow to NYC north this run. Most of the rest of the region sees .1+" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 You know, it's not often that you see a PV forced that far southward by a blocking ridge. When it does happen however, UL systems tend to be entrenched in cold air which can make it difficult for models to project correctly. The NAM wants to force any low development off towards the baroclinic zone, but those low pressure systems over land are a typical signal that it is at least recognizing the threat of a track closer to the coast...despite the lack of warm advection. This could definitely be a sneaky storm for some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 At hr 72 looks like a much stronger piece of energy about to drop in from Canada near MT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Inverted trough brings mod/heavy snow to NYC north this run. Most of the rest of the region sees .1+" QPF. Sounds to me like an east central pa screw over to me again. Can a trough ever sit over us for a change? Funny- tons of rain in in the early summer but cannot squeeze out a flake in the winter. This pattern cannot keep going like this. Its not normal. What ever happen to the repetitious 2-6 inch snow events? These 20 inch or nothing snow events is enough too give a forecaster a heart attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 You know, it's not often that you see a PV forced that far southward by a blocking ridge. When it does happen however, UL systems tend to be entrenched in cold air which can make it difficult for models to project correctly. The NAM wants to force any low development off towards the baroclinic zone, but those low pressure systems over land are a typical signal that it is at least recognizing the threat of a track closer to the coast...despite the lack of warm advection. This could definitely be a sneaky storm for some people. Given how cold it is aloft, aka convective this one will be with its norlun trofs et al, there are going to be a lot of exotic haves and have nots nam qpf solutions in the days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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