tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I had never heard of the DGEX until I joined American. A novel idea by NCEP, but it seems to have an awful verification record based on the few times I have glanced at it. yea its basically a last hope model for people to hold onto snow threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 and the 6z gfs has started, lets see what new solution is presented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 I really just hate inverted troughs and norlun signatures, they are so tantalizing but incredibly fragile. A few years ago winter storm warnings were issued as every model had it over New Jersey at 30 hours...needless to say I didn't see a single flake. Ive also seen areas get 8+" out of them, where they weren't expecting a single flake. Models can be just dead wrong with them inside as near as 24-30hrs out. They are truly a handful to forecast to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 and the 6z gfs has started, lets see what new solution is presented. And now, just to be a jerk, time for bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I really just hate inverted troughs and norlun signatures, they are so tantalizing but incredibly fragile. A few years ago winter storm warnings were issued as every model had it over New Jersey at 30 hours...needless to say I didn't see a single flake. Ive also seen areas get 8+" out of them, where they weren't expecting a single flake. Models can be just dead wrong with them inside as near as 24-30hrs out. They are truly a handful to forecast to say the least. thats what makes it really exciting though, you never know where its going to pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 College, man...it's one big final party before life starts. John, I hope you stick with this because your passion is amazing and you obviously have a knack in forecasting. I was a third year Met student at SUNY Oswego back in 1979. Got very discouraged with the lack of forecasting jobs available and ended up leaving after my Junior year. I was that close and I regret it too this day. I've made a decent living over the years but have always felt like I was missing out on something because I gave up on the thing I was most passionate about. So my advice to you is to stick with this no matter how bleak the job market may look and you will find a way to be successful........Vinny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And now, just to be a jerk, time for bed. huge lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 thats what makes it really exciting though, you never know where its going to pop. And thats what she said. Goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 That's so rad. I have a real taste for severe weather--although I seem like a total winter weather junkie now that it's cold season. I did some national forecasting work at my school this past year..it was fun to try and simulate an SPC forecast. I ended up being burned by a capping inversion once, and another time by a poorly modeled low level shear profile on a warm front. It was a fun experience, though. I need to get out to the plains and do some chasing this spring. Ah SPC. An interesting topic, perhaps a good one for a different thread someday. They definitely have some head-scratching moments, and they are far too held back by protocol and regulations. As for storm chasing, you will have to head into the plains someday. The central/southern plains have turned into a joke, and the northern plains are really the last safe haven from the chaser hoards. I don't have enough patience to chase religiously, but I have done a little. I stick to trying to forecast DMC as opposed to chasing it Shear profiles along warm fronts are always an interesting discussion, and depending on who you talk to, that is the only place they will chase--along the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 John, I hope you stick with this because your passion is amazing and you obviously have a knack in forecasting. I was a third year Met student at SUNY Oswego back in 1979. Got very discouraged with the lack of forecasting jobs available and ended up leaving after my Junior year. I was that close and I regret it too this day. I've made a decent living over the years but have always felt like I was missing out on something because I gave up on the thing I was most passionate about. So my advice to you is to stick with this no matter how bleak the job market may look and you will find a way to be successful........Vinny I know about four Oswego graduates in meteorology. Seems like a solid program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 John, I hope you stick with this because your passion is amazing and you obviously have a knack in forecasting. I was a third year Met student at SUNY Oswego back in 1979. Got very discouraged with the lack of forecasting jobs available and ended up leaving after my Junior year. I was that close and I regret it too this day. I've made a decent living over the years but have always felt like I was missing out on something because I gave up on the thing I was most passionate about. So my advice to you is to stick with this no matter how bleak the job market may look and you will find a way to be successful........Vinny Thanks for the kind words bud I really appreciate it. I still plan to stick with it to at least get my degree. What happens afterwards is a crapshoot, but at least having graduated is where I want to be. From there hopefully things work out. I wanted to work within the NWS but with the application process and all that jazz it seems like a longshot. But there are plenty of opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I know about four Oswego graduates in meteorology. Seems like a solid program. It was a relatively small program back then, with about 23 students if I recall in my class. The instructors were excellent. They were always there for you. The only instructor that was sub par was the professor who taught the Partial Derivatives class. That was one tough course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It was a relatively small program back then, with about 23 students if I recall in my class. The instructors were excellent. They were always there for you. The only instructor that was sub par was the professor who taught the Partial Derivatives class. That was one tough course. All the professors there in math are awful, its been awhile for me and I heard nothing changed...you remember the name of who it was back then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 All the professors there in math are awful, its been awhile for me and I heard nothing changed...you remember the name of who it was back then? Sorry, no. I do remember a few of the Meteo professors ( Chermack, Stamm, I think Masterson and of course Bob Sykes who was in semi- retirement. Sykes and one of his graduate students did the local forecasts on the local radio station. Robert Sykes was the "Lake Effect" guru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The ground temp and sun angle deal is overrated in the case of significant storms...if its 21 degrees and snowing at one inch or more per hour on March 25th its highly unlikely the roads will not be accumulating snow....I always mention the 93 blizzard when the roads were snow covered despite it being 37 degrees at 1am before ths snow started and the April 2000 event in Albany and the Hudson Valley when it reached 85 the day before. That argument will continue on and on here, no matter how many times it is crushed. People will even attempt to argue no snow at all will accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Thanks for the kind words bud I really appreciate it. I still plan to stick with it to at least get my degree. What happens afterwards is a crapshoot, but at least having graduated is where I want to be. From there hopefully things work out. I wanted to work within the NWS but with the application process and all that jazz it seems like a longshot. But there are plenty of opportunities. You should not let that stop you. If you really want to work for the NWS, then try your very best to get in. That argument will continue on and on here, no matter how many times it is crushed. People will even attempt to argue no snow at all will accumulate. Very true, and to this day many forecasters still call this and get caught many times. I have worked/witnessed several events where the snow was thought to not stick to the roads but the snowfall rate showed how that was wrong. One must be very careful when forecasting the snow will or will not not stick to the roads. Perhaps Meteorologists should steer away from this as most of the time there is not enough data to make an accurate forecast (unless you have access to real-time road sensors and can accurately predict how the road surface will behave given the precipitation type/intensity and air temperatures). A tough one, so I tend not to go that route unless asked for my opinion on the matter. I had some failures regarding this topic during my times working in the private sector (lesson learned). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Thanks for the kind words bud I really appreciate it. I still plan to stick with it to at least get my degree. What happens afterwards is a crapshoot, but at least having graduated is where I want to be. From there hopefully things work out. I wanted to work within the NWS but with the application process and all that jazz it seems like a longshot. But there are plenty of opportunities. John, Please try to get into the NWS, you would be an asset. Don't let the system discourage you. You're a sharp met, don't let it go to waste. If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to pm or e-mail me. (This would hold for Mike too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This run of the NAM looks quite a bit different. Not sure of the outcome yet, but it does look like more energy is diving down further west and there is also some southern stream energy that was not there on the previous run. The upper level low also looks more consolidated and a little further west. This run looks better to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The NAM is dropping a ton of energy in, and the 300mb looks to be in a very good configuration for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think it may also be important that there is southern stream energy that was not there in the previous run as well. The NAM is dropping a ton of energy in, and the 300mb looks to be in a very good configuration for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 At 78 hrs a 994mb low has actually developed over the southern Appalachians and there is a precip max over eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 81 hrs. The LOW IS TAKING SHAPE OVER VA AND NC 991mbs. WOW WAY DIFFERENT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 At 84 hrs. the precip max over eastern PA is up to about .5 and the low appears to be taking shape somewhere near the DelMarva.There is a 992mb over NC and another center off of NC about 990 (maybe a feedback issue). It has 6 inches of snow precip max over Allentown by 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I know about four Oswego graduates in meteorology. Seems like a solid program. I myself was considering going to SUNY for a little while, but it was like a second alternate for me behind Penn State and Millersville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What a crazy run. Completely different then anything. NAM is trying very hard to make it interesting for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What a crazy run. Completely different then anything. NAM is trying very hard to make it interesting for all of us. 84 hour NAM looks good, if the worst case scenario is a disorganized 2-4"/3-6" deal thats not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What a crazy run. Completely different then anything. NAM is trying very hard to make it interesting for all of us. Inverted trough now appears to be trying to set up over SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 84 hour NAM looks good, if the worst case scenario is a disorganized 2-4"/3-6" deal thats not too shabby. Let's not forget that this is the NAM at long range and the precip coverage probably won't be as nice as what the QPF fields are suggesting without an organized system. Definitly looks like its too soon to call this one off though. Now onto the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This looks nice A lot of energy coming down in the trough with a coastal getting it's act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NAM has the new coastal very close to coast and appears it would hit some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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