A-L-E-X Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Not a chance haha. Maybe if a few models had shown a big solution today, I would think about it. I'm not complaining..I will love every flake that falls..but the 06z GFS, not worth it. Yeah, that would mean 2 hours less sleep-- because once you stay up for that, youll have people asking you to wait until the ensembles come out! And by then its almost daylight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah, that would mean 2 hours less sleep-- because once you stay up for that, youll have people asking you to wait until the ensembles come out! And by then its almost daylight! With the last storm I didn't even care..there was a point where I knew it was going to be something I wouldn't forget anytime soon. Why sleep at that point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah, that would mean 2 hours less sleep-- because once you stay up for that, youll have people asking you to wait until the ensembles come out! And by then its almost daylight! lol hes on break from college...what else does he have to do lol (keep engaging in convo, by the time he realizes it will be the 6z gfs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 lol hes on break from college...what else does he have to do lol (keep engaging in convo, by the time he realizes it will be the 6z gfs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's actually still coming down hard at 84 hours..I would assume this run gives most ares under the inv. trough .5 at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Where do you go to college Earth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's actually still coming down hard at 84 hours..I would assume this run gives most ares under the inv. trough .5 at least i bet 9z srefs, will be more robust with the qpf and h5 depictions of the vortex after seeing the 6z nam.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 2nd event on the ECM means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Where do you go to college Earth? I go to Kean university..it's a short drive from my house. I'm a third year meteorology student currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I go to Kean university..it's a short drive from my house. I'm a third year meteorology student currently Cool. You got solid forecast skills for a Jr. I was still a moron when I was a Jr., lol. It took a solid one year of advanced synoptics in my Sr. year with an amazing professor to right the ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 0z ggem ens are encouraging http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zggemensemblep12108.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zggemensemblep48120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 With the last storm I didn't even care..there was a point where I knew it was going to be something I wouldn't forget anytime soon. Why sleep at that point? its weird-- the high from that last storm is something we still have with us. I felt it was better than all 3 of the storms from last year combined. Everything from that point on is gravy lol. With the storms from last year-- I was always waiting for something bigger to come along. I dont have that urgency this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's just a shame we can't get that northern stream feature to dig more. Because of that we are now hanging our hats on a retrograde or upper level capture...which in reality is very unliikely at this lat/lon given the upper air pattern before and during the development of the system. The surface low is probably going to be displaced offshore when it strengthens and the vorticity gets there..which leaves us hoping for an inverted trough, which is literally a blind jump at this range. I will never trust those again after I saw the NAM, GFS and Euro bust terribly on placement of more than one of them inside 30 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 lol hes on break from college...what else does he have to do lol (keep engaging in convo, by the time he realizes it will be the 6z gfs) lol Thats why Xmas eve to the end of winter break is probably the best time to have a snowstorm-- you get to enjoy it to the fullest right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Cool. You got solid forecast skills for a Jr. I was still a moron when I was a Jr., lol. It took a solid one year of advanced synoptics in my Sr. year with an amazing professor to right the ship. Thanks bud! I've still got a long ways to go. With the way you're skilled at forecasting--I would love to meet that professor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Cool. You got solid forecast skills for a Jr. I was still a moron when I was a Jr., lol. It took a solid one year of advanced synoptics in my Sr. year with an amazing professor to right the ship. You werent a moron, probably just partying too much lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 You werent a moron, probably just partying too much lol. College, man...it's one big final party before life starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 some of the ggem indiv ens members are mouth watering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 You werent a moron, probably just partying too much lol. True, in ND we don't have much to do in winter but this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 As I posted before, with this sort of 500mb ULL, whoever finds themselves in the position east to NE of the vort center as it pivots to the coast will very likely see some snow and it could be a significant one....a norlun feature is likely to form as well in the same general region...the 00Z GFS would indicate the NYC region would be the prime spot but we may see the 500 low track change or should I say WILL se eit change on ensuing runs...the 850mb winds are a tad strong for what I'd like to see for a norlun/inverted trough event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Thanks bud! I've still got a long ways to go. With the way you're skilled at forecasting--I would love to meet that professor Super prof, I was so lucky to have him. Dedicated to the students and extremely smart. The likes of Chuck Doswell, Howie Bluestein, and other famous mets groomed him. He was also a member of VORTEX and did great research into Rear Flank Downdrafts at OU. http://www.atmos.und.edu/People/Askelson.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 True, in ND we don't have much to do in winter but this: thats one plus about winter, the need for refrigerators is no more. Just leave the case of beer in the garage or stuff it in the snow and its sufficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 thats one plus about winter, the need for refrigerators is no more. Just leave the case of beer in the garage or stuff it in the snow and its sufficient. Haha, I wish. Problem is when it gets to -30 everything just busts open and freezes. Only hard liquor is safe at those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's actually still coming down hard at 84 hours..I would assume this run gives most ares under the inv. trough .5 at least that inverted trof rocks the nyc area on dgex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Haha, I wish. Problem is when it gets to -30 everything just busts open and freezes. Only hard liquor is safe at those temps. yea thats very true, i guess just bury it in the snow, would insulate it....i had that problem at an eagles game right after the big snow storm we had in january in 05, phl get like a foot or so. The next day the high was in the teens and the eagles had the nfc championship game, our beers turned into slushies in our cups while drinking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 that inverted trof rocks the nyc area on dgex Oh man. I can honestly tell you I might cry tears of joy if we pulled that off less than two weeks removed from the blizzard. That being said the chances of it happening are very low. I was burned by inverted trough in relation to east coast storms forecasting once before---never again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Oh man. I can honestly tell you I might cry tears of joy if we pulled that off less than two weeks removed from the blizzard. That being said the chances of it happening are very low. I was burned by inverted trough in relation to east coast storms forecasting once before---never again. yea not saying it will happen, but from this setup someone from phl to maine may get into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 that inverted trof rocks the nyc area on dgex I had never heard of the DGEX until I joined American. A novel idea by NCEP, but it seems to have an awful verification record based on the few times I have glanced at it. Does it have any merits for those of you who have looked at it more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Super prof, I was so lucky to have him. Dedicated to the students and extremely smart. The likes of Chuck Doswell, Howie Bluestein, and other famous mets groomed him. He was also a member of VORTEX and did great research into Rear Flank Downdrafts at OU. http://www.atmos.und.edu/People/Askelson.aspx That's so rad. I have a real taste for severe weather--although I seem like a total winter weather junkie now that it's cold season. I did some national forecasting work at my school this past year..it was fun to try and simulate an SPC forecast. I ended up being burned by a capping inversion once, and another time by a poorly modeled low level shear profile on a warm front. It was a fun experience, though. I need to get out to the plains and do some chasing this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 I had never heard of the DGEX until I joined American. A novel idea by NCEP, but it seems to have an awful verification record based on the few times I have glanced at it. It has it's occasional coup. Last year a few times it nailed events at 130+ hrs which was pretty surprising. I have always seen it as extremely unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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