tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Don't forget the precip accumulations. I'll take mine in number of flakes, please. MDstorm lol ...basically everyone just takc on .1-.25 from before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 When you loop the H5 NHEM maps you can see that this run was actually very close to producing a solution similar to last nights 00z run..the PV drops into the M/A again. It just barely misses the capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 180 now just a borad area of 1012 pressure basically from the apps east into the atlantic lol...lgt precip from nyc south, all of pa through balt, dc, delmarva and central and northern va on west...lgt to mod blob over susquehanna valley Something happens during day 6 because up to that point it looked similar to the GFS. I mean, it was a bit more progressive with the southern stream and kicking the PV out, but that can't be the cause for such a boring solution. On the Plymouth maps it's hard to tell what goes awry out west regarding the energy. I suspect it has something to do with closing/not closing off the 500mb energy like the GFS does by 168 and has the energy more spread out...correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 If you woke me up after a 5 year nap and showed me the last 10 runs of the GFS/Euro I'd be able to tell you it was a La Nina winter even with the massive blocking and cold air solely based on the wild run to run swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well this is what 168 hrs looks like on Raleighs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Something happens during day 6 because up to that point it looked similar to the GFS. I mean, it was a bit more progressive with the southern stream and kicking the PV out, but that can't be the cause for such a boring solution. On the Plymouth maps it's hard to tell what goes awry out west regarding the energy. I suspect it has something to do with closing/not closing off the 500mb energy like the GFS does by 168 and has the energy more spread out...correct me if I'm wrong. exactly what it is, the gfs is more robust with plains storm, closes it off like you said. The euro is a just a weak storm doesn't close off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Euro is a hot mess post 200 hours...pig ridge in the west with 588dm heights off CA..and the polar jet getting involved in a phase in the east. No major surface low yet but the trough is tremendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 If you woke me up after a 5 year nap and showed me the last 10 runs of the GFS/Euro I'd be able to tell you it was a La Nina winter even with the massive blocking and cold air solely based on the wild run to run swings. basically there is going to be a lot of fist pumping and moaning and groaning from people with each of these solutions. This current weekend solution, i dont think the euro has held the same thing for more than 1 run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Euro has a tremendous ridge in the EPAC and West Coast..+PNA..and the arctic air unloading into Central Canada and making headway towards the Central and Eastern US at 240 hours. So at the very least, it's cold. The block is completely gone, but the ridge out west is huge enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 ECM seems awfully fast with this second event & I am not talking about compared to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 ECM seems awfully fast with this second event & I am not talking about compared to the GFS compare it to the gem, its pretty close to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 compare it to the gem, its pretty close to that I realize that....that just illustrates my point better I think...GGEM is usually a progressive model....since when is the ECM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 If you woke me up after a 5 year nap and showed me the last 10 runs of the GFS/Euro I'd be able to tell you it was a La Nina winter even with the massive blocking and cold air solely based on the wild run to run swings. Did we have these kinds of swings in 1995-96 too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 When you loop the H5 NHEM maps you can see that this run was actually very close to producing a solution similar to last nights 00z run..the PV drops into the M/A again. It just barely misses the capture. dangerous potential, didn't realize it until I did loop them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I realize that....that just illustrates my point better I think...GGEM is usually a progressive model....since when is the ECM? last i checked, ggem tries to phase everything the weather map has to offer..it could be moving out too quick though - 1 piece of energy it seems and one is held back on the euro...The gfs holds everything back and waits for the huge trof to pick it up.. then again, the euro has not been consistent at all (nor the gfs) with the miller b storm - which i still think has alot of potential (still 100 hrs out).... ok im done haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Did we have these kinds of swings in 1995-96 too? No, the models were generally good from what I remember though the U.S. models were poor on the blizzard but most of the other events were very well forecast well in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Euro has a tremendous ridge in the EPAC and West Coast..+PNA..and the arctic air unloading into Central Canada and making headway towards the Central and Eastern US at 240 hours. So at the very least, it's cold. The block is completely gone, but the ridge out west is huge enough. The block over AK is still there...it's just shifted west a little bit but we've still got a massive ridge over the Bering Strait/Kamchatka/Western Alaska bringing some very cold air into Canada. The -NAO has disappeared but that's actually a good thing if you want arctic air since we need to allow the PV to descend into Central Canada and not have everything too blocked up. The 0z ECM run was disappointing in terms of snow, though...just a minor Norlun trough from the first event, and we know how those can disappear when they're modeled at this range...then a miss from a convoluted Miller A that looked WAY better in previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 last i checked, ggem tries to phase everything the weather map has to offer..it could be moving out too quick though - 1 piece of energy it seems and one is held back on the euro...The gfs holds everything back and waits for the huge trof to pick it up.. then again, the euro has not been consistent at all (nor the gfs) with the miller b storm - which i still think has alot of potential (still 100 hrs out).... ok im done haha Well i kind of remember reading from DT in reference to the last blizzard that he wanted to see the GGEM come back west before biting on to the GFS because of the GGEM having a progressive bias. I just find it pretty hard to believe that even though the UK has been pretty bad this season ...that it is alot different from the ECM..and the ECM has come pretty fast with this event now compared to its prior 3 runs. I mean we are talking 144 hrs out now that precipitation works its way towards the region...that is less then 7 days out.... I think it just serves as a red flag..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 (Jan 11-13 storm) None of the models are being really consistent with this second system next week which should be expected of course given the range and the pattern. The 0z GGEM from last night had a miller-b solution pretty close to what the GFS came up with earlier this evening. The euro of course cranked out a miller-A for that period with the roid-raging 0z run it had last night. In general they have been batting around the bush with a storm. Can probably attribute some issues to them trying to handle the energy that moves through the west and southwest. The next few to several days will probably continue to be up and down with regards to this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well i kind of remember reading from DT in reference to the last blizzard that he wanted to see the GGEM come back west before biting on to the GFS because of the GGEM having a progressive bias. I just find it pretty hard to believe that even though the UK has been pretty bad this season ...that it is alot different from the ECM..and the ECM has come pretty fast with this event now compared to its prior 3 runs. I mean we are talking 144 hrs out now that precipitation works its way towards the region...that is less then 7 days out.... I think it just serves as a red flag..... The UKMET from my experience tends to be progressive despite the fact it occasionally has nuclear bombs off the East Coast as well...a progressive tending model will almost always perform poorly during a La Nina winter since the generally progressive pattern or Pac Jet will add fuel to its normal bias...this is the exact reason the GEM has overall performed well though it struggled badly in the short range on the last event...the GEM is normally west/warm so the progressive Nina is likely negating its bias....I made a joke that the NOGAPS must have been unstoppable in 97-98 since the strong Nino would have negated its progressive tendencies and Tony came back and said it was one of the best models that winter....this may also be why the GFS seems to be bad during Nina winters as well..its normally too far SE with the coastals Days 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well, there's always the 06z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 It has 0.25"+ for NYC, NJ shore, Western LI through 84 hours..inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 At 84 hours the inverted trough actually strengthened, with UVV's expanding across the region. Time for bed now, can't believe I just stayed up to see an inverted trough on the 84 hr 06z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 At 84 hours the inverted trough actually strengthened, with UVV's expanding across the region. Time for bed now, can't believe I just stayed up to see an inverted trough on the 84 hr 06z NAM. also to note, the pv is much further south compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 also to note, the pv is much further south compared to 0z Yeah, it's much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The UKMET from my experience tends to be progressive despite the fact it occasionally has nuclear bombs off the East Coast as well...a progressive tending model will almost always perform poorly during a La Nina winter since the generally progressive pattern or Pac Jet will add fuel to its normal bias...this is the exact reason the GEM has overall performed well though it struggled badly in the short range on the last event...the GEM is normally west/warm so the progressive Nina is likely negating its bias....I made a joke that the NOGAPS must have been unstoppable in 97-98 since the strong Nino would have negated its progressive tendencies and Tony came back and said it was one of the best models that winter....this may also be why the GFS seems to be bad during Nina winters as well..its normally too far SE with the coastals Days 4-7. Some good stuff there... it's hard to imagine the NOGAPS being on top of the model verification game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah, it's much better. you know you want to stay up for the 6z gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 you know you want to stay up for the 6z gfs lol Not a chance haha. Maybe if a few models had shown a big solution today, I would think about it. I'm not complaining..I will love every flake that falls..but the 06z GFS, not worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 euro ens at hr 96 has that inverted trof depiction towards the area again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 you know you want to stay up for the 6z gfs lol This is starting to seem a lot like a couple of weeks ago, with the models drawing us in for more runs lol. I do think its encouraging we're seeing that norlun deal on multiple model runs, plus the PV like you said. It might lead to a better surface reflection today.... or tomorrow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.