jm1220 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 H5 is closed off OC MD at 102 hrs..this is at least going to be a snowstorm for the NJ Coast, LI and SNE. Hard to imagine it wouldn't be a slam here with the 500 low that far south. That's roughly an I-195 north hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 It never really quite gets captured. It's close, though. By the way nice s/w coming through the SW at 114. PV is still rather overbearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 114 sub 976 low about 250 miles east of cape cod...sne getting brushed with some lgt to mod precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Thank you, sorry probably dumb question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hard to imagine it wouldn't be a slam here with the 500 low that far south. That's roughly an I-195 north hit. Problem is the way it enters not where it closes off--it needs to get captured to bring back good snows. Verbatim it's a light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yup, progressive pattern resulted in a missed phase and another possible event...the springs following neutral or Nina winters leading into mod/strong ninos almost always produce a big snow event in March or even April in the NE. http://www.meteo.psu...1982/us0411.php 82-83, 97-98.... man that April 97 storm was so close to being big for us, it hit areas both to our south and north and we were "in between" I remember the forecasts for 8-15 inches of snow that slowly got whittled down to 1-3 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 qpf from the inverted trof nyc .2 abe .25-.5 hazleton .25-.5 dc .01-.1 ttn .25-.5 phl .25-.5 balt .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 992mb in Central TX at 120 hours, that's a pretty impressive s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 acy is about .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Thank you, sorry probably dumb question When people say places they always use Airport codes, so if in the future you do not recognize the 3 letter code just google it and it will tell you where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 108 hrs NJ Shore and LI miss the CCB by ~25-50 miles. .5 line on the NJ shore and Montauk .25 everyone else south of NYC. Sounds like a SENE event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Very impressive 500mb look at 126, that s/w means business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's going to be close and will depend on the next few frames--but my initial opinion is that the second storm will be flat. There's room for big amplification if the PV can lift a little bit faster to the north while keeping the confluence there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Sounds like a SENE event. south of bos and on the cape get hit good. .75 plus...bos is about .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 132 has a sub 1000 low over northern mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 There's a tremendous trough on the entire West coast of the US by 132...really a terribly convoluted setup. It's trying to drop more energy into the system here, so we could see a hooking west track. The PV is holding on for dear life..and there is a nice upper air low in the 50/50 position (or near it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 seems like it ejects the s/w out way faster than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Shoots the first shortwave towards the confluence at 138 hrs. Overrunning snows into the TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 seems like it ejects the s/w out way faster than the gfs yea the ggem had the same thing, ejects the southern piece faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Light snow in DC at 144 hours but the 500mb pattern has broken down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 144 has lgt precip up to dc frz and 850 line along va/nc border going due west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 50/50 low is moving out way too fast for my liking..if the first shortwave can't do anything of importance then things better get going fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 168 has a sub 1012 low over nw alabama... lgt precip north of it from wpa and wva to the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 northern stream energy is starting to dig more on the back side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 174 dual 1012 lows one over elkins the other off hse...lgt precip from lancaster pa to martinsburg on sw...the whole thing just looks like a disorganized mess as of hr 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 180 now just a borad area of 1012 pressure basically from the apps east into the atlantic lol...lgt precip from nyc south, all of pa through balt, dc, delmarva and central and northern va on west...lgt to mod blob over susquehanna valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 186 has a sub 1004 low about 250 miles east of acy...lgt precip over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 192 storm heads ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 192 storm heads ots. Don't forget the precip accumulations. I'll take mine in number of flakes, please. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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