BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Maybe Im wrong but the GFS still looks ridiculous to me..granted its almost 200 hundred hours out but like its 18z run how does it go from this To this in 12 hours\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 heres a better look at the ggem out to hr 240 with precip http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What an excellent look on the gfs, I'm def looking forward to the Jan 11-13 potential, it looks more legit to me. I don't think the storm will be inland, there's a lot of cold air out there and there is a strong enough high in SE Canada that would favor a transfer offshore. We'd have a CAD in place no matter what and get frozen precip. In the worst case, we would see a big sleet or ice storm and the best case, a big snowstorm. I'm not giving up on the earlier potential either, I think we'll see 1-3/2-4" from it. This is beyond 3-4 days and we know how quickly the models can change their minds in that amount of time The models are simply seeing the Miller B scenario and more warming the lower layers initially on the SE flow...it could be a scenario where perhaps it starts as a mix of RASN and then transitions to snow like the 4/6/82 Miller B event did and the 12/5/03 one was SUPPOSED to do...but in this pattern its likely the primary would transition far enough south and early enough to be mainly a snow event....I don't know what to think on the first event...its such a infrequent setup overall its highly possible the models could again be playing catchup to either a major miss even for SNE or a hit as far south as C-NJ very late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Really awesome storm threat on the GFS 160+hrs. I like what I see. Could be a very big event..and I think it remains frozen with the state of the PV and block. I hope you are right and the players are definitely on the field for a big event. I just hope it doesn't miss here again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 alright lets see what the 0z euro cooks up for the weekend and next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 heres a better look at the ggem out to hr 240 with precip http://www.meteo.psu...0z/cmcloop.html Isn't it unusual for the GGEM to be less amplified than the other models? It's happened a few times this winter for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Again as I cautioned with the last event when it appeared it would be a miss....if this event subsequently is a new England event as model guidance currently shows, be very wary over the immediate NYC metro as the extremely potent upper low/PV in the region from 102-120 hours or so will likely result in someone seeing a surprise heavy snow event.....this includes a possible norlun feature developing, rarely do upper lows of that magnitude cross any portion of the lower 48 without dropping some sort of region of heavier snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 through hr 42, the pv just north of maine is further west, while the pv west of hudson bay is pretty elongated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah the sleet line was just to my north, as someone about 2 miles N of me near the border of Colts Neck/Holmdel had like 5-6" of sleet. Then 3-5 miles south of here it was all rain. A very thin but significant stripe of icing through central Monmouth County. I'm back at Nova next week so it'd be nice to ring in the New Year with a day or two off. Yeah, the freezing line made it to within 5 miles of here just before the storm moved away and heights crashed lol. We went from snow to sleet to freezing rain towards the end. The March storm was much the same, except that did change to plain rain here right at the end but then temps dropped and everything froze up (including my doors-- which were stuck shut.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 through hr 54, again pretty big difference in the h5 evolution. the pv west of the hudson split, one little piece dropped south while a big chunk of it went back into central canada....the other pv by maine is coming west pretty fast...the trof is a good bit more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The models are simply seeing the Miller B scenario and more warming the lower layers initially on the SE flow...it could be a scenario where perhaps it starts as a mix of RASN and then transitions to snow like the 4/6/82 Miller B event did and the 12/5/03 one was SUPPOSED to do...but in this pattern its likely the primary would transition far enough south and early enough to be mainly a snow event....I don't know what to think on the first event...its such a infrequent setup overall its highly possible the models could again be playing catchup to either a major miss even for SNE or a hit as far south as C-NJ very late. that 4/6/82 event was my first snowstorm and so anomalous (or so I thought at the time--- April snowstorms seem to be getting much more frequent), lots of thundersnow accompanied by high winds and very cold temps, I have to think had that happened in the middle of winter, it would be similar to the last storm in snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 that 4/6/82 event was my first snowstorm and so anomalous (or so I thought at the time--- April snowstorms seem to be getting much more frequent), lots of thundersnow accompanied by high winds and very cold temps, I have to think had that happened in the middle of winter, it would be similar to the last storm in snowfall amounts. The 4/7/03 event here that dropped 7-8" in Long Beach probably would've been a foot if not more with colder ground and lower sun angle. Late season events are great but disappear fast. That snow was gone in 2 days unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 that 4/6/82 event was my first snowstorm and so anomalous (or so I thought at the time--- April snowstorms seem to be getting much more frequent), lots of thundersnow accompanied by high winds and very cold temps, I have to think had that happened in the middle of winter, it would be similar to the last storm in snowfall amounts. It developed too far north and moved out fast enough to really be anything near the last event...had it formed more off the VA Capes then it may have been an even more historic April event for many more locations...I think Philly saw very little out of it...I don't know what temps were during the event but I think mid-way through they were into the middle 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The 4/7/03 event here that dropped 7-8" in Long Beach probably would've been a foot if not more with colder ground and lower sun angle. Late season events are great but disappear fast. That snow was gone in 2 days unfortunately. Yeah, I bring up that event whenever anyone says the sun angle is too high for the snow to stick during the day lol. I actually think we got a lot more snow than NYC with that system.... so sun angle might be more of a limiting factor in artificial UHI environments than it is for us. I think that system in February would have been a high end event for us too-- it was snowing heavily all day long as it was, with more cold air and higher ratios that would have been an amazing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 84 the pv is centered just north of huron, with a lobe of it extending southward....lgt precip just west of the region...0z run is a lot more amplified with the trof compared to the 12z, not sure it will mean much in the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Just another different solution. At the very least this setup will give us some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 90 has a sub 992 low about 150 -200 miles east of orf...looks like an inverted trof going back to between phl and nyc...lgt precip over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah, I bring up that event whenever anyone says the sun angle is too high for the snow to stick during the day lol. I actually think we got a lot more snow than NYC with that system.... so sun angle might be more of a limiting factor in artificial UHI environments than it is for us. I think that system in February would have been a high end event for us too-- it was snowing heavily all day long as it was, with more cold air and higher ratios that would have been an amazing storm. The ground temp and sun angle deal is overrated in the case of significant storms...if its 21 degrees and snowing at one inch or more per hour on March 25th its highly unlikely the roads will not be accumulating snow....I always mention the 93 blizzard when the roads were snow covered despite it being 37 degrees at 1am before ths snow started and the April 2000 event in Albany and the Hudson Valley when it reached 85 the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It developed too far north and moved out fast enough to really be anything near the last event...had it formed more off the VA Capes then it may have been an even more historic April event for many more locations...I think Philly saw very little out of it...I don't know what temps were during the event but I think mid-way through they were into the middle 20s. SG, you probably remember this too-- wasnt there another storm a week after that which almost hit us? (I think it swerved just to our east.) I remember the 4/6/03 event had temps down near 20 or even the upper teens towards the end of the event-- who knows how cold that storm would have gotten in the middle of winter lol. That whole week was so cold and completely unlike normal April weather. You do get April snows like once every three years on average, but that kind of sustained cold made it far more unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 96 sub 988 low bout 300 miles east of lewes del...still somewhat of an inverted trof look hanging back towards central jerz coast...lgt precip over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's going to tug it back west..thicknesses are bending heavily NW at 96 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Always wondered. Where's orf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 SG, you probably remember this too-- wasnt there another storm a week after that which almost hit us? (I think it swerved just to our east.) I remember the 4/6/03 event had temps down near 20 or even the upper teens towards the end of the event-- who knows how cold that storm would have gotten in the middle of winter lol. That whole week was so cold and completely unlike normal April weather. You do get April snows like once every three years on average, but that kind of sustained cold made it far more unusual. Yup, progressive pattern resulted in a missed phase and another possible event...the springs following neutral or Nina winters leading into mod/strong ninos almost always produce a big snow event in March or even April in the NE. http://www.meteo.psu...1982/us0411.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 102 inverted trof really poking back lgt to mod precip from elkton md to bout nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Always wondered. Where's orf? Norfolk, Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 H5 is closed off OC MD at 102 hrs..this is at least going to be a snowstorm for the NJ Coast, LI and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Always wondered. Where's orf? norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 108 inverted trof still hanging back towards phl...lgt precip for the area still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 108 hrs NJ Shore and LI miss the CCB by ~25-50 miles. .5 line on the NJ shore and Montauk .25 everyone else south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The ground temp and sun angle deal is overrated in the case of significant storms...if its 21 degrees and snowing at one inch or more per hour on March 25th its highly unlikely the roads will not be accumulating snow....I always mention the 93 blizzard when the roads were snow covered despite it being 37 degrees at 1am before ths snow started and the April 2000 event in Albany and the Hudson Valley when it reached 85 the day before. Yeah, the extremely high snowfall rates probably do this (the way I picture it anyway) because the snow is falling so hard that the initial layer that hits the ground doesnt have a chance to completely melt before more snow falls on top of it. And those additional layers of snow serve to cool the ground down further, causing the melting bottom layer to freeze into ice (causing even more treacherous driving and walking conditions), and aiding further rapid accumulation. I've always thought untreated roads and sidewalks in that kind of snowfall are much more dangerous than your standard mid winter "dry" snowfall with temps in the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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