CooL Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 exactly-not sure what earthlight is seeing what he is doing is not being a surface weenie and is looking at the overall pattern looks very ripe for a cold coastal storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think the GFS just forgot that the entire arctic tundra was headed south from the Canadian prairies courtesy a 1062 High this run until it was a bit too late for it to show what should have been a great east coast snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 People are taking this verbatim? Hasn't anyone learned anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 what he is doing is not being a surface weenie and is looking at the overall pattern looks very ripe for a cold coastal storm At this point that's all you can ask for; a pattern that is good for a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Even with the GFS setup, some of that is snow. Here's hr 216: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_216l.gif But it will change a lot anyway. Run to run ups and downs will occur, so don't get too invested right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 exactly-not sure what earthlight is seeing I do, there's very high heights over Central Canada and the NAO is still favorable. Look how far west the closed ULL is initially. It's forced east before it can amplify. Things will remain mostly frozen away from the immediate coast...and that's in the worst case scenario if you ask me. The upper air height pattern would have to change significantly for a storm to cut inland. Not saying it won't happen, but we would need significant changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Another threat around Day 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hes seeing great potential, and that this solution is 192 hrs away, which will change 50 million times.... +5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Reminds me of V DAY 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I do, there's very high heights over Central Canada and the NAO is still favorable. Look how far west the closed ULL is initially. It's forced east before it can amplify. Things will remain mostly frozen away from the immediate coast...and that's in the worst case scenario if you ask me. The upper air height pattern would have to change significantly for a storm to cut inland. Not saying it won't happen, but we would need significant changes. its so far away there is no reason to argue over specifics....i just didnt like it closing off in MO Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Epic doesn't even start to describe the potential these next 2 weeks could bring to the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Reminds me of V DAY 2007. I sure hope not. I got 5" of rain with that storm and tropical storm force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Tremendous potential next week, 100% agree John. The first potential later this week is much higher risk, and definitely favors Eastern New England with the delayed capture of the s/w. We'll see how it goes but these next two weeks will clearly be historic across much of North America in terms of severe cold, heavy snow potential, and more massive blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Another threat around Day 14. lock it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm not saying it will happen as such, but compare the surface and 500 millibar thickness maps to the Jan 1996 storm and you will find some interesting similarities leading up to it as the GFS hits the 150+ hour mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I sure hope not. I got 5" of rain with that storm and tropical storm force winds. It'd help to put your location in your profile. I had a pretty significant ice storm in CNJ with VD 2007. Was an interesting event in that regard, temps in the low-mid 20s with hvy ZR after a couple inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Any word from the Foreign Models on this late week to weekend snow storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Tremendous potential next week, 100% agree John. The first potential later this week is much higher risk, and definitely favors Eastern New England with the delayed capture of the s/w. We'll see how it goes but these next two weeks will clearly be historic across much of North America in terms of severe cold, heavy snow potential, and more massive blocking. +10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It'd help to put your location in your profile. I had a pretty significant ice storm in CNJ with VD 2007. Was an interesting event in that regard, temps in the low-mid 20s with hvy ZR after a couple inches of sleet. V day was an interesting storm for me here. Got like 7" of sleet. Rain line went right up to Philly, and being 15 miles NW I managed to stay all sleet which was kinda awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm not saying it will happen as such, but compare the surface and 500 millibar thickness maps to the Jan 1996 storm and you will find some interesting similarities leading up to it as the GFS hits the 150+ hour mark. yeah i can see it kinda, the huge closed off trough over the east lets see what the euro says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 gfs ens are a good bit better with the weekend coastal. Looks like some indiv ens are pretty juicy and further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 gfs ens are a good bit better with the weekend coastal. Looks like some indiv ens are pretty juicy and further west. I will say this about the potential for a large storm. If this plays out like last week with the models, people will have to be warned again in under forty eight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 ggem is pretty much a miss for the area, some lgt snows for nyc, maybe .1 or so with the inverted trof that kills sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 V day was an interesting storm for me here. Got like 7" of sleet. Rain line went right up to Philly, and being 15 miles NW I managed to stay all sleet which was kinda awesome. Yeah the sleet line was just to my north, as someone about 2 miles N of me near the border of Colts Neck/Holmdel had like 5-6" of sleet. Then 3-5 miles south of here it was all rain. A very thin but significant stripe of icing through central Monmouth County. I'm back at Nova next week so it'd be nice to ring in the New Year with a day or two off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah the sleet line was just to my north, as someone about 2 miles N of me near the border of Colts Neck/Holmdel had like 5-6" of sleet. Then 3-5 miles south of here it was all rain. A very thin but significant stripe of icing through central Monmouth County. I'm back at Nova next week so it'd be nice to ring in the New Year with a day or two off. I remember that was the storm the models were showing 2 feet plus about 72 hours out. That was a very depressing turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 pretty decent support from the gfs ens for the 2nd storm, 1004mb low off the coast - but again this is around the 200hr timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 pretty decent support from the gfs ens for the 2nd storm, 1004mb low off the coast - but again this is around the 200hr timeframe Right now I'm just excited to be tracking all ths potential. We could have at least 3 threats in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What an excellent look on the gfs, I'm def looking forward to the Jan 11-13 potential, it looks more legit to me. I don't think the storm will be inland, there's a lot of cold air out there and there is a strong enough high in SE Canada that would favor a transfer offshore. We'd have a CAD in place no matter what and get frozen precip. In the worst case, we would see a big sleet or ice storm and the best case, a big snowstorm. I'm not giving up on the earlier potential either, I think we'll see 1-3/2-4" from it. This is beyond 3-4 days and we know how quickly the models can change their minds in that amount of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 heres the ggem at hr 144, seems quicker than the gfs with the eastward movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 ggem 168 - 21 h168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.