GD0815 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i know this wont sit well with a lot of folks but this storm bombing out north of us could turn out to a be a very good thing with regard to a potential big storm around the 14th.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 the h5 setup wasnt conducive for a big storm at this latitude for the weekend storm no matter what the fluke runs showed, snow showers/flurries sure...the next storm has a much better chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 At least it shows some light snow hrs. 78 and 84. Maybe an appetizer for the main event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 nice west based -nao still sitting pretty at 120hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ehh, again another "step in the right direction". We're very close to having a good storm on this run, but need 1 or 2 more improvements to take place. The S/W needs to dig more and not have to compete with so many other vorts like the GFS has. Hopefully this doesn't become another "all or nothing" storm like the last one. It's great for people that get all, but obviously sucks for people that get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Setup out west at 111 hours makes me tear up. Awesome, especially with the PV over the Northeast lifting north. I guess the silver lining if this weekend threat fails is that a weaker storm lifts out faster for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Actually, this run was an improvement from the 18z--look at how much more consolidated the energy is at 102 hours on the 0z GFS vs 108 hours on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ehh, again another "step in the right direction". We're very close to having a good storm on this run, but need 1 or 2 more improvements to take place. The S/W needs to dig more and not have to compete with so many other vorts like the GFS has. Hopefully this doesn't become another "all or nothing" storm like the last one. It's great for people that get all, but obviously sucks for people that get nothing. for which storm??? the weekend storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ehh, again another "step in the right direction". We're very close to having a good storm on this run, but need 1 or 2 more improvements to take place. The S/W needs to dig more and not have to compete with so many other vorts like the GFS has. Hopefully this doesn't become another "all or nothing" storm like the last one. It's great for people that get all, but obviously sucks for people that get nothing. you mean all we need is the PV to dig all the way down to the virginia coast? climatologically its not likely to happen from my view that isnt a S/W it the PV...please correct me if im wrong.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Actually, this run was an improvement from the 18z--look at how much more consolidated the energy is at 102 hours on the 0z GFS vs 108 hours on the 18z GFS. No doubt it gets captured in time to nail someone, maybe even Boston again this run. But we need it maybe 100 miles SW of where the GFS has it now. The Euro's consistency in giving us at least a notable event is encouraging, as are the overall positive trends at 500mb. But this could still lurch either way in the end-to a monster amplified solution or a weak progressive solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I guess the silver lining if this weekend threat fails is that a weaker storm lifts out faster for the next one. weaker/stronger at the surface doesnt make such a big diff. Look at h5...there is a 510DM polar vortex that needs to move out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 you mean all we need is the PV to dig all the way down to the virginia coast? climatologically its not likely to happen from my view that isnt a S/W it the PV...please correct me if im wrong.... The S/W diving west and south of the PV needs to be consolidated and strong, which would bring the PV down along with it to an extent. The broadness of the PV is a result of the broadness and sheared out nature of the S/W, and ultimately keeps it too far north to organize in time. And you're right, climatologically an outcome like the extreme isn't favored, but we also have quite an extreme pattern about to transpire. Blocking like we're seeing now and have recently seen comes around once in how long, a decade or more? Especially in a strong ENSO state? That's why the extreme solution can't be discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 through 150hr, jan 10th time frame, looks cold and dry.. Ridge just starting to come onshore out west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The storm seems to be taking its good old time coming east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 through 150hr, jan 10th time frame, looks cold and dry.. Ridge just starting to come onshore out west.. This entire run looks very much like the 12z GGEM if you ask me. The next system at 150 looks like it's going to cut. The northern stream at 500mb is already positively tilted, even though the southern stream is quite zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I get the feeling we're going to be seeing some lake cutter solutions over the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This entire run looks very much like the 12z GGEM if you ask me. The next system at 150 looks like it's going to cut. The northern stream at 500mb is already positively tilted, even though the southern stream is quite zonal. i assume you mean negatively? lol 183, 538dm closed off low over the mizz area, just a blob of precip throughout the oh/ms river valley.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I get the feeling we're going to be seeing some lake cutter solutions over the next 7 days. closed 5H Low west of MISS is a red flag for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Really awesome storm threat on the GFS 160+hrs. I like what I see. Could be a very big event..and I think it remains frozen with the state of the PV and block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i assume you mean negatively? lol 183, 538dm closed off low over the mizz area, just a blob of precip throughout the oh/ms river valley.. Yep...thanks The GFS gets very wacky after hour 150 lol. The low seems to go everywhere, popping secondaries here and there and broadening its area of low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 180hrs, 50/50 is gone she's gonna' cut west, maybe not GL, but west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 180hrs, 50/50 is gone she's gonna' cut west, maybe not GL, but west I really wouldn't worry about the GFS doing this type of thing, Mitch.... It always does something odd regarding East Coast Snow events.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 this is just weird... shows a coastal hugger from 189-240.. BL issues 1-95 east... genereal .5" -up to 1.5" in some spots.... wouldn't be all snow though.... just weird.. itsnice, i guess it cant cut any further west due to the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I really wouldn't worry about the GFS doing this type of thing, Mitch.... It always does something odd regarding East Coast Snow events.... not worried per se, just pointing out what its gonna do this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 180hrs, 50/50 is gone she's gonna' cut west, maybe not GL, but west exactly-not sure what earthlight is seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 closed 5H Low west of MISS is a red flag for that Delicate balance between timing of PV departing (and tailing s/w trough) and trough coming in from the west. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 exactly-not sure what earthlight is seeing Well it didn't cut very far west.. so earthlight was partly right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Lots of high heights in Central Canada makes it very hard for storms to cut west...plus the eastward side of the ridging (the downward side) causes a lot of confluence in the northeast...see the NW flow at 500mb? A storm cannot cut with that kind of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Not too far west at 204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 exactly-not sure what earthlight is seeing hes seeing great potential, and that this solution is 192 hrs away, which will change 50 million times.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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