tcutter Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 wow this thread has fallen silent quickly. a quick look at the 0z NAM at hr 66, the PV is stronger and a bit farther NE of its 18z position at 72. also an anomalous blob of precip slides through VA and DC Thur afternoon i've been trying to find some NAM analysis anywhere on the board but not much as of now.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 wow this thread has fallen silent quickly. a quick look at the 0z NAM at hr 66, the PV is stronger and a bit farther NE of its 18z position at 72. also an anomalous blob of precip slides through VA and DC Thur afternoon It will probably Liven up between the GFS and the Euro Run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i've been trying to find some NAM analysis anywhere on the board but not much as of now.......... its pv position is well north of the 18z run, even at hr 84 on the 0z run it has the pv north of the great lakes compared to 18z which had a lobe of it swinging through chicago. Though we still have lgt precip over oure area at hr 84. Whats more interesting is the strong clipper diving down into iowa at hr 84, sub 1004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 its pv position is well north of the 18z run, even at hr 84 on the 0z run it has the pv north of the great lakes. Though we still have lgt precip over oure area at hr 84. Whats more interesting is the strong clipper diving down into iowa at hr 84, sub 1004 thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 PV orientation completely different. was a peanut at 18z, more consolidated towards the southwestern end of the peanut this run Edit: consolidated, but north. if that makes any sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 snow showers for everybody at 12z Friday from the Arctic front. the clipper is still back in iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 PV at hr 72 on the 0z is very similar to hr 84 on the 12z more condensed, not the peanut it was showing at 18z also a bit farther SW this run compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's definitely too far north this run and will be slower with the development of the surface low. Our only hope this run would be a light event or some sort of inverted trough when the shortwave over the plains gets involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's definitely interesting, though, it's really slowing the PV movement to a crawl at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Think we need something looking like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I know the SREF's are out of their time range, but some of these look pretty good or at least better than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I know the SREF's are out of their time range, but some of these look pretty good or at least better than the NAM eta 5 would probably be close to the 0z euro last night with the vorticity diving south of us it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 eta 5 would probably be close to the 0z euro last night with the vorticity diving south of us it looks like. wasn't eta 5 that kept showing a hit for Dec 19th right up to 6 hours out? lol good ol' eta5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 wasn't eta 5 that kept showing a hit for Dec 19th right up to 6 hours out? lol good ol' eta5 eta5 is always the last hope for everything lol. I think snowgoose mentioned it back in the last storm. You can use the eta bias of over amplifying everything and the nogaps bias of being to progressive to see where you stand with outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 GFS is much stronger with the ridge out west so far through 45 hours..pretty dramatic differences for one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GFS is much stronger with the ridge out west so far through 45 hours..pretty dramatic differences for one run. yea its trying to link up with the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 The reason I post about the ridge is that it's important in helping get the PV further south. You can see this already trying to happen compared to 18z through 48 hrs, the flow is much more favorably oriented. Not saying it will happen, but it's giving us a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GFS is much stronger with the ridge out west so far through 45 hours..pretty dramatic differences for one run. was just about to post this haha maybe it can amplify this thing and allow the bowling ball to dig deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 for those who, like me, fall into the trap of extrapolating the 84hr NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 you can also see through the more amplified ridge, the trof axis is bending more sw in the plains states compared to the 18z, also a little higher hgts along east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Lots of energy coming over the top of that ridge into Central Canada..the ridge is pushing too far east for my liking but this upper air setup is going to produce a big storm somewhere given the trough setup over the East..might be nice for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 through hr 60, noticeable differences...ridge in the west is now connecting with the block...stronger great lakes low sub 1004, compared to 18z ... clipper is now present and stronger than 18z...also a stornger vorticity lobe of the pv is present on the 0z just above lake superior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Block is absolutely ridiculous through 63 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Block is absolutely ridiculous through 63 hrs lol at that block, i cant even remember the last time i saw something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 center of PV sitting just due west of Buffolo..lol, another orientation solution today with the PV,. and yes, that block is dirty! @ 90hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 99, coastal east of Bm.. dry from Phl-NYC<, probably scattered snow shows/flurries... 510 thickness from eastern mich to all of PA, all of MD.. BRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 parts of sne get hit good with an inverted trof up to hr 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's close, but not quite there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Setup out west at 111 hours makes me tear up. Awesome, especially with the PV over the Northeast lifting north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looking at 48 hours, I honestly thought it looked a lot better than the 18z GFS. I guess not. It was kind of anti-climactic. We're still close, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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