NorthShoreWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I get a kick out of how they draw these maps from sparse data points. The lower totals along the north shore of LI are based entirely on the 14" report from the Strongs Neck coop which rarely, if ever, reported snowfall correctly. Still they don't have much to go on so they draw a 50 mile long contour to reach out to it from LGA. I'm surprised they don't have the Patchogue coop shown there. i think this is the snow map not entirely sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You shift the heavier precip a bit SW and it's very close to 1978, off the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You shift the heavier precip a bit SW and it's very close to 1978, off the DGEX. we have the DGEX and the JMA. all we need is the KMA to la-la-la-lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 at the surface gfs is drastically different than 12z run, basically has no precip or real surface reflection of the low diving down from canada at hr 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 For those who are interested, three pages of photos from that blizzard can be found here. The blizzard of '78 was a remarkable storm for wind, total snowfall, and the storm's long duration. Yes, it was a great one. I worked at CBS and visited the weather center on the Friday before the storm(which started Sunday evening at about 10P) before I left at 5PM. Alan Kasper was working there at that time, showed me the lastest runs(probably then the infamous LFM.) It showed the storm forming a little to far north to give NYC a burial, Boston was the place to be. By 4PM on Sunday the NWS issued their warnings, and the rest is history.One hour before the snow started Sunday night, the stars were out. Unforgettable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I wasn't being nasty. I like your thoughts. I have read the NE forum frequently and you are one who i believe knows what you are talking about. Honestly down here i'm hoping for an inch or two and then await the bigger threat early/mid next week. Thanks....sarcasm meter was in "storm alert" mode. I'd closely watch CoastalWx and ORH wxman.....2 of the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 I like a 12z GFS/18z NAM solution..I think warning criteria snows are going to make it here and northeast. This is going to be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Thanks....sarcasm meter was in "storm alert" mode. I'd closely watch CoastalWx and ORH wxman.....2 of the best. Your weenie is wiltering...it's time for it to snow in wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 For those who are interested, three pages of photos from that blizzard can be found here. The blizzard of '78 was a remarkable storm for wind, total snowfall, and the storm's long duration. Thanks Don. I really like the Brooklyn photos...you don't see them from that storm very often . I have just a few from western LI here: http://www.longislandwx.com/19780207.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I like a 12z GFS/18z NAM solution..I think warning criteria snows are going to make it here and northeast. This is going to be fun to watch. sorry to bug but are you talking about the end of this week and not the next one (next tues)?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 total QPF from storm #1 is 0 for most of the area...New england is getting it good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 total QPF from storm #1 is 0 for most of the area...New england is getting it good GFS is an outlier in this regard, though. Even the Canadian gives us something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 sorry to bug but are you talking about the end of this week and not the next one (next tues)?? End of this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 End of this week thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Thanks....sarcasm meter was in "storm alert" mode. I'd closely watch CoastalWx and ORH wxman.....2 of the best. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Big storm comes up the coast later in the run around hr 216, but we cant even get the 1st event nailed down so dont excited yet http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/avnloop.html I was just going to say at 180 hours this should get good soon after . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Big storm comes up the coast later in the run around hr 216, but we cant even get the 1st event nailed down so dont excited yet In pretty fair agreement with the ECM. Personally, I'd be happy with 1-3" (Philly) with this first event to whiten up the ground and hopefully the second one is more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The GFS seems to be trending in the right direction still with regards to the upper level vorts and low, but still keeps it too strung out and bombs it too late. Obviously, a more compact solution like the NAM is much better for our area. And again, the Euro has nailed us for several runs in a row with at least a warning level snow. Best odds are obviously from here on NE, but no one north of the M/D line is out of the woods and won't be for a couple of days.Once the CCB gets going and especially if the low starts to stall out, snow totals will obviously go through the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Granted its the 18Z GFS at almost 200 hours but how do you go from this To this in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The potential next week is just unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Thanks Don. I really like the Brooklyn photos...you don't see them from that storm very often . I have just a few from western LI here: http://www.longislan...om/19780207.asp Someone asked a good question about whether the February 1978 storm started on Sunday February 5 or Monday 2/6 and several posters have stated their memories that the storm started 2/5 (rather than 2/6 as it says on my website). I checked old metars and for LI the answer is 2/6 as light snow began at ISP at 3AM and at JFK at 1AM. SO... its close but no cigar in the NYC area and there is reason to believe that areas to the SW might have started before midnight. At JFK and ISP, visibilities in light snow for the first few hours were between 3 and 5 miles and the snow did not become sugnificant until 5 - 6 AM (first at JFK then at ISP). I remember waking at 7AM with snow falling but an inch or less on the ground. Its hard to say for sure when the snow started at EWR, but it was snowing lightly at 12:43AM local time on the 6th (and it was not snowing at 9:55PM on the 5th): KEWR 060255Z 07006KT 10SM OVC010 M06/M13 A3028 RMK SLP251 T10561133 KEWR 060543Z 02014KT 4SM -SN OVC005 M07/M09 A3020 RMK SLP224 T10671089 11050 KEWR 060655Z 03012KT 2SM -SN OVC014 M07/M08 A3019 RMK SLP220 T10721078 KEWR 060827Z 02013KT 1SM -SN OVC001 M07/M07 A3017 RMK SLP213 T10721072 KEWR 060832Z 03013KT 3/4SM -SN OVC001 M07/M07 A3014 RMK SLP203 T10721072 KEWR 061006Z 02016KT 3/4SM -SN OVC001 M07/M07 A3010 RMK SLP190 T10721072 KEWR 061047Z 01016KT 1/2SM SN OVC001 M07/M07 A3008 RMK SLP183 T10721072 KEWR 061141Z 01015KT 1/2SM SN OVC001 M07/M07 A3005 RMK SLP173 T10671067 60001 11072 KEWR 061306Z 03017KT 1/2SM SN OVC002 M07/M07 A3000 RMK SLP156 T10671067 KEWR 061400Z 02018KT 1/2SM -SNBLSN OVC002 M06/M06 A2997 RMK SLP140 T10561056 KEWR 061522Z 02014KT 1/2SM SNBLSN OVC001 M06/M06 A2994 RMK SLP135 T10561056 KEWR 061555Z 02016KT 1/2SM SNBLSN OVC001 M05/M05 A2988 RMK SLP115 T10501050 KEWR 061700Z 07020KT 1/4SM +SNBLSN OVC002 M05/M05 A2978 RMK SLP081 T10501050 KEWR 061800Z 03020KT 1/4SM +SNBLSN OVC001 M03/M03 A2969 RMK SLP051 T10331033 KEWR 061925Z 03021G30KT 1/4SM +SNBLSN OVC000 M03/M03 A2962 RMK SLP027 T10331033 I'd say that snow in the Philly area probably started on the 5th, but not in NYC and points north and east. For posterity, here are some from JFK and ISP (apologies in advance for ISP...they are decoded and may not format well here): METAR KJFK 060500Z 03012KT 10SM OVC023 M05/M14 A3022 RMK SLP234 T10501144 METAR KJFK 060600Z 04014KT 4SM -SN OVC022 M05/M11 A3019 RMK SLP224 T10501111 METAR KJFK 060700Z 02012KT 4SM -SN OVC029 M06/M09 A3018 RMK SLP220 T10561094 METAR KJFK 060800Z 03015KT 3SM -SN OVC020 M06/M09 A3015 RMK SLP210 P0001 T10561089 SPECI KJFK 060825Z 02014KT 2SM -SN OVC015 A3013 RMK SLPNO METAR KJFK 060900Z 02015KT 2SM -SN OVC010 M06/M08 A3012 RMK SLP200 P0002 T10561078 SPECI KJFK 060924Z 04015KT 11/2SM -SN OVC010 A3009 RMK SLPNO METAR KJFK 061000Z 04015KT 1SM -SN OVC009 M05/M07 A3008 RMK SLP186 P0003 T10501067 METAR KJFK 061100Z 04020G24KT 3/4SM -SN OVC008 M04/M07 A3005 RMK SLP176 P0003 T10441067 METAR KJFK 061200Z 04018G24KT 1SM -SN -BLSN OVC008 M05/M07 A3002 RMK SLP166 P0002 60012 70012 T10501072 METAR KJFK 061300Z 04021KT 1SM -SN -BLSN OVC/// M05/M07 A//// RMK SLP152 P0002 T10501072 METAR KJFK 061400Z 04022KT 3/8SM SN -BLSN OVC/// M04/M06 A//// RMK SLP139 P0006 T10441061 METAR KJFK 061500Z 04021G26KT 3/8SM SN -BLSN OVC004 M04/M06 A2990 RMK SLP125 P0005 T10441056 METAR KJFK 061600Z 04023G30KT 1/4SM SN -BLSN OVC003 M04/M06 A2985 RMK SLP108 P0005 T10391056 METAR KJFK 061700Z 04024KT 1/8SM SN -BLSN OVC/// M04/M05 A//// RMK SLP068 P0010 T10391050 METAR KJFK 061800Z 04025G39KT 1/8SM SN -BLSN OVC002 M04/M05 A2966 RMK SLP044 P0012 T10391050 METAR KJFK 061900Z 03026G40KT 1/8SM SN -BLSN OVC002 M03/M04 A2956 RMK SLP010 P0014 T10331044 METAR KJFK 062000Z 03027G37KT 1/8SM SN -BLSN OVC002 M03/M04 A2953 RMK SLP000 P0008 T10331044 METAR KJFK 062100Z 03025G37KT 1/4SM -SN -BLSN OVC003 M03/M04 A2948 RMK SLP983 P0003 T10331044 METAR KJFK 062200Z 03026G34KT 1/4SM -SN -BLSN OVC003 M03/M04 A2945 RMK SLP973 P0005 T10281039 DateTime (EST)TempDew PointHumiditySea Level PressureVisibilityWind DirWind SpeedGust SpeedPrecipEventsConditions 2/6/197812:00 AM23.03.04230.267.0North11.5-N/AOvercast 2/6/19781:00 AM26.11.93530.207.0NNE17.3-N/AOvercast 2/6/19782:00 AM25.01.03630.227.0NNE13.8-N/AOvercast 2/6/19783:00 AM25.019.98130.192.0NE15.0-N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19784:00 AM25.019.98130.153.0NE16.1-N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19785:00 AM25.021.08530.122.0NE23.0-N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19786:00 AM24.119.08130.092.0NNE23.0-N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19786:25 AM-9999.0-9999.0N/A30.081.0NNE23.0-N/AUnknown 2/6/19787:00 AM24.119.98430.070.5NNE23.0-N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19788:00 AM24.121.08830.010.2NE25.3-N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19788:11 AM-9999.0-9999.0N/A30.000.5NE20.7-N/AUnknown 2/6/19789:00 AM26.121.98429.990.2NE21.9-N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19789:15 AM-9999.0-9999.0N/A29.940.2NE19.634.5N/AUnknown 2/6/197810:00 AM27.024.18929.940.1NE23.034.5N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/197811:00 AM27.025.09229.880.1NNE25.340.3N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/197812:00 PM27.025.09229.780.1NNE23.034.5N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/197812:05 PM-9999.0-9999.0N/A29.740.0NE29.939.1N/AUnknown 2/6/19781:00 PM27.026.19629.690.0NNE32.241.4N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19782:00 PM28.026.19229.630.0NE32.240.3N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19783:00 PM28.928.09629.540.0NE40.356.4N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19784:00 PM30.028.09229.490.0NE46.059.8N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19785:00 PM30.027.08829.460.0NE28.847.2N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19786:00 PM28.027.09629.440.1NE34.5-N/ASnowLight Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Granted its the 18Z GFS at almost 200 hours but how do you go from this To this in 12 hours. The Gulf of Mexico can do wonders. Did you read Baroclinic Instabilitiy's posts prior to the blizzard. It looks like that same general concept is going on with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Someone asked a good question about whether the February 1978 storm started on Sunday February 5 or Monday 2/6 and several posters have stated their memories that the storm started 2/5 (rather than 2/6 as it says on my website). I checked old metars and for LI the answer is 2/6 as light snow began at ISP at 3AM and at JFK at 1AM. SO... its close but no cigar in the NYC area and there is reason to believe that areas to the SW might have started before midnight. At JFK and ISP, visibilities in light snow for the first few hours were between 3 and 5 miles and the snow did not become sugnificant until 5 - 6 AM (first at JFK then at ISP). I remember waking at 7AM with snow falling but an inch or less on the ground. Its hard to say for sure when the snow started at EWR, but it was snowing lightly at 12:43AM local time on the 6th (and it was not snowing at 9:55PM on the 5th): KEWR 060255Z 07006KT 10SM OVC010 M06/M13 A3028 RMK SLP251 T10561133 KEWR 060543Z 02014KT 4SM -SN OVC005 M07/M09 A3020 RMK SLP224 T10671089 11050 KEWR 060655Z 03012KT 2SM -SN OVC014 M07/M08 A3019 RMK SLP220 T10721078 KEWR 060827Z 02013KT 1SM -SN OVC001 M07/M07 A3017 RMK SLP213 T10721072 KEWR 060832Z 03013KT 3/4SM -SN OVC001 M07/M07 A3014 RMK SLP203 T10721072 KEWR 061006Z 02016KT 3/4SM -SN OVC001 M07/M07 A3010 RMK SLP190 T10721072 KEWR 061047Z 01016KT 1/2SM SN OVC001 M07/M07 A3008 RMK SLP183 T10721072 KEWR 061141Z 01015KT 1/2SM SN OVC001 M07/M07 A3005 RMK SLP173 T10671067 60001 11072 KEWR 061306Z 03017KT 1/2SM SN OVC002 M07/M07 A3000 RMK SLP156 T10671067 KEWR 061400Z 02018KT 1/2SM -SNBLSN OVC002 M06/M06 A2997 RMK SLP140 T10561056 KEWR 061522Z 02014KT 1/2SM SNBLSN OVC001 M06/M06 A2994 RMK SLP135 T10561056 KEWR 061555Z 02016KT 1/2SM SNBLSN OVC001 M05/M05 A2988 RMK SLP115 T10501050 KEWR 061700Z 07020KT 1/4SM +SNBLSN OVC002 M05/M05 A2978 RMK SLP081 T10501050 KEWR 061800Z 03020KT 1/4SM +SNBLSN OVC001 M03/M03 A2969 RMK SLP051 T10331033 KEWR 061925Z 03021G30KT 1/4SM +SNBLSN OVC000 M03/M03 A2962 RMK SLP027 T10331033 I'd say that snow in the Philly area probably started on the 5th, but not in NYC and points north and east. For posterity, here are some from JFK and ISP (apologoes in advance for ISP...they are decoded and may not format well here): METAR KJFK 060500Z 03012KT 10SM OVC023 M05/M14 A3022 RMK SLP234 T10501144 METAR KJFK 060600Z 04014KT 4SM -SN OVC022 M05/M11 A3019 RMK SLP224 T10501111 METAR KJFK 060700Z 02012KT 4SM -SN OVC029 M06/M09 A3018 RMK SLP220 T10561094 METAR KJFK 060800Z 03015KT 3SM -SN OVC020 M06/M09 A3015 RMK SLP210 P0001 T10561089 SPECI KJFK 060825Z 02014KT 2SM -SN OVC015 A3013 RMK SLPNO METAR KJFK 060900Z 02015KT 2SM -SN OVC010 M06/M08 A3012 RMK SLP200 P0002 T10561078 SPECI KJFK 060924Z 04015KT 11/2SM -SN OVC010 A3009 RMK SLPNO METAR KJFK 061000Z 04015KT 1SM -SN OVC009 M05/M07 A3008 RMK SLP186 P0003 T10501067 METAR KJFK 061100Z 04020G24KT 3/4SM -SN OVC008 M04/M07 A3005 RMK SLP176 P0003 T10441067 METAR KJFK 061200Z 04018G24KT 1SM -SN -BLSN OVC008 M05/M07 A3002 RMK SLP166 P0002 60012 70012 T10501072 METAR KJFK 061300Z 04021KT 1SM -SN -BLSN OVC/// M05/M07 A//// RMK SLP152 P0002 T10501072 METAR KJFK 061400Z 04022KT 3/8SM SN -BLSN OVC/// M04/M06 A//// RMK SLP139 P0006 T10441061 METAR KJFK 061500Z 04021G26KT 3/8SM SN -BLSN OVC004 M04/M06 A2990 RMK SLP125 P0005 T10441056 METAR KJFK 061600Z 04023G30KT 1/4SM SN -BLSN OVC003 M04/M06 A2985 RMK SLP108 P0005 T10391056 METAR KJFK 061700Z 04024KT 1/8SM SN -BLSN OVC/// M04/M05 A//// RMK SLP068 P0010 T10391050 METAR KJFK 061800Z 04025G39KT 1/8SM SN -BLSN OVC002 M04/M05 A2966 RMK SLP044 P0012 T10391050 METAR KJFK 061900Z 03026G40KT 1/8SM SN -BLSN OVC002 M03/M04 A2956 RMK SLP010 P0014 T10331044 METAR KJFK 062000Z 03027G37KT 1/8SM SN -BLSN OVC002 M03/M04 A2953 RMK SLP000 P0008 T10331044 METAR KJFK 062100Z 03025G37KT 1/4SM -SN -BLSN OVC003 M03/M04 A2948 RMK SLP983 P0003 T10331044 METAR KJFK 062200Z 03026G34KT 1/4SM -SN -BLSN OVC003 M03/M04 A2945 RMK SLP973 P0005 T10281039 DateTime (EST)TempDew PointHumiditySea Level PressureVisibilityWind DirWind SpeedGust SpeedPrecipEventsConditions 2/6/197812:00 AM23.03.04230.267.0North11.5-N/AOvercast2/6/19781:00 AM26.11.93530.207.0NNE17.3-N/AOvercast 2/6/19782:00 AM25.01.03630.227.0NNE13.8-N/AOvercast2/6/19783:00 AM25.019.98130.192.0NE15.0-N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19784:00 AM25.019.98130.153.0NE16.1-N/ASnowLight Snow2/6/19785:00 AM25.021.08530.122.0NE23.0-N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19786:00 AM24.119.08130.092.0NNE23.0-N/ASnowLight Snow2/6/19786:25 AM-9999.0-9999.0N/A30.081.0NNE23.0-N/AUnknown 2/6/19787:00 AM24.119.98430.070.5NNE23.0-N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19788:00 AM24.121.08830.010.2NE25.3-N/ASnowLight Snow2/6/19788:11 AM-9999.0-9999.0N/A30.000.5NE20.7-N/AUnknown 2/6/19789:00 AM26.121.98429.990.2NE21.9-N/ASnowLight Snow2/6/19789:15 AM-9999.0-9999.0N/A29.940.2NE19.634.5N/AUnknown 2/6/197810:00 AM27.024.18929.940.1NE23.034.5N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/197811:00 AM27.025.09229.880.1NNE25.340.3N/ASnowLight Snow2/6/197812:00 PM27.025.09229.780.1NNE23.034.5N/ASnowLight Snow2/6/197812:05 PM-9999.0-9999.0N/A29.740.0NE29.939.1N/AUnknown2/6/19781:00 PM27.026.19629.690.0NNE32.241.4N/ASnowLight Snow2/6/19782:00 PM28.026.19229.630.0NE32.240.3N/ASnowLight Snow2/6/19783:00 PM28.928.09629.540.0NE40.356.4N/ASnowLight Snow2/6/19784:00 PM30.028.09229.490.0NE46.059.8N/ASnowLight Snow2/6/19785:00 PM30.027.08829.460.0NE28.847.2N/ASnowLight Snow2/6/19786:00 PM28.027.09629.440.1NE34.5-N/ASnowLight Snow i saw the first flurries in Babylon at 1am on the 6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The GFS seems to be trending in the right direction still with regards to the upper level vorts and low, but still keeps it too strung out and bombs it too late. Obviously, a more compact solution like the NAM is much better for our area. And again, the Euro has nailed us for several runs in a row with at least a warning level snow. Best odds are obviously from here on NE, but no one north of the M/D line is out of the woods and won't be for a couple of days.Once the CCB gets going and especially if the low starts to stall out, snow totals will obviously go through the roof. I was pretty close to writing this off for myself but after a second closer inspection I really think you're right about the GFS being close. There's a powerful jet streak diving into the base of the trof just as it goes neutral tilt and the mid-level low eventually tucks south underneath us - so the SLP is going to tend to pull back SW towards us as it occludes. If the mid/upper level lows (or a secondary low center) move just a bit south of the 18z position - toward Ohio and Pa, we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Why was my post deleted? I was asking a question about any upcoming storms. I looked at some of the models and I didn't really see anything so I was wondering what the deal was. All I know is that NE is going to get hit hard by a storm, what about here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 i saw the first flurries in Babylon at 1am on the 6th You quoted the ENTIRE post just for THIS???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 for those interested.............DT just updated his website with thoughts on the next 2 threats for the EC..................... http://www.keyweb3.com/windsong/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 for those interested.............DT just updated his website with thoughts on the next 2 threats for the EC..................... http://www.keyweb3.com/windsong/ He seems to be getting real excited about next week's threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hockeyinc Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Someone asked a good question about whether the February 1978 storm started on Sunday February 5 or Monday 2/6 and several posters have stated their memories that the storm started 2/5 (rather than 2/6 as it says on my website). I checked old metars and for LI the answer is 2/6 as light snow began at ISP at 3AM and at JFK at 1AM. SO... its close but no cigar in the NYC area and there is reason to believe that areas to the SW might have started before midnight. At JFK and ISP, visibilities in light snow for the first few hours were between 3 and 5 miles and the snow did not become sugnificant until 5 - 6 AM (first at JFK then at ISP). I remember waking at 7AM with snow falling but an inch or less on the ground. Its hard to say for sure when the snow started at EWR, but it was snowing lightly at 12:43AM local time on the 6th (and it was not snowing at 9:55PM on the 5th): KEWR 060255Z 07006KT 10SM OVC010 M06/M13 A3028 RMK SLP251 T10561133 KEWR 060543Z 02014KT 4SM -SN OVC005 M07/M09 A3020 RMK SLP224 T10671089 11050 KEWR 060655Z 03012KT 2SM -SN OVC014 M07/M08 A3019 RMK SLP220 T10721078 KEWR 060827Z 02013KT 1SM -SN OVC001 M07/M07 A3017 RMK SLP213 T10721072 KEWR 060832Z 03013KT 3/4SM -SN OVC001 M07/M07 A3014 RMK SLP203 T10721072 KEWR 061006Z 02016KT 3/4SM -SN OVC001 M07/M07 A3010 RMK SLP190 T10721072 KEWR 061047Z 01016KT 1/2SM SN OVC001 M07/M07 A3008 RMK SLP183 T10721072 KEWR 061141Z 01015KT 1/2SM SN OVC001 M07/M07 A3005 RMK SLP173 T10671067 60001 11072 KEWR 061306Z 03017KT 1/2SM SN OVC002 M07/M07 A3000 RMK SLP156 T10671067 KEWR 061400Z 02018KT 1/2SM -SNBLSN OVC002 M06/M06 A2997 RMK SLP140 T10561056 KEWR 061522Z 02014KT 1/2SM SNBLSN OVC001 M06/M06 A2994 RMK SLP135 T10561056 KEWR 061555Z 02016KT 1/2SM SNBLSN OVC001 M05/M05 A2988 RMK SLP115 T10501050 KEWR 061700Z 07020KT 1/4SM +SNBLSN OVC002 M05/M05 A2978 RMK SLP081 T10501050 KEWR 061800Z 03020KT 1/4SM +SNBLSN OVC001 M03/M03 A2969 RMK SLP051 T10331033 KEWR 061925Z 03021G30KT 1/4SM +SNBLSN OVC000 M03/M03 A2962 RMK SLP027 T10331033 I'd say that snow in the Philly area probably started on the 5th, but not in NYC and points north and east. For posterity, here are some from JFK and ISP (apologies in advance for ISP...they are decoded and may not format well here): METAR KJFK 060500Z 03012KT 10SM OVC023 M05/M14 A3022 RMK SLP234 T10501144 METAR KJFK 060600Z 04014KT 4SM -SN OVC022 M05/M11 A3019 RMK SLP224 T10501111 METAR KJFK 060700Z 02012KT 4SM -SN OVC029 M06/M09 A3018 RMK SLP220 T10561094 METAR KJFK 060800Z 03015KT 3SM -SN OVC020 M06/M09 A3015 RMK SLP210 P0001 T10561089 SPECI KJFK 060825Z 02014KT 2SM -SN OVC015 A3013 RMK SLPNO METAR KJFK 060900Z 02015KT 2SM -SN OVC010 M06/M08 A3012 RMK SLP200 P0002 T10561078 SPECI KJFK 060924Z 04015KT 11/2SM -SN OVC010 A3009 RMK SLPNO METAR KJFK 061000Z 04015KT 1SM -SN OVC009 M05/M07 A3008 RMK SLP186 P0003 T10501067 METAR KJFK 061100Z 04020G24KT 3/4SM -SN OVC008 M04/M07 A3005 RMK SLP176 P0003 T10441067 METAR KJFK 061200Z 04018G24KT 1SM -SN -BLSN OVC008 M05/M07 A3002 RMK SLP166 P0002 60012 70012 T10501072 METAR KJFK 061300Z 04021KT 1SM -SN -BLSN OVC/// M05/M07 A//// RMK SLP152 P0002 T10501072 METAR KJFK 061400Z 04022KT 3/8SM SN -BLSN OVC/// M04/M06 A//// RMK SLP139 P0006 T10441061 METAR KJFK 061500Z 04021G26KT 3/8SM SN -BLSN OVC004 M04/M06 A2990 RMK SLP125 P0005 T10441056 METAR KJFK 061600Z 04023G30KT 1/4SM SN -BLSN OVC003 M04/M06 A2985 RMK SLP108 P0005 T10391056 METAR KJFK 061700Z 04024KT 1/8SM SN -BLSN OVC/// M04/M05 A//// RMK SLP068 P0010 T10391050 METAR KJFK 061800Z 04025G39KT 1/8SM SN -BLSN OVC002 M04/M05 A2966 RMK SLP044 P0012 T10391050 METAR KJFK 061900Z 03026G40KT 1/8SM SN -BLSN OVC002 M03/M04 A2956 RMK SLP010 P0014 T10331044 METAR KJFK 062000Z 03027G37KT 1/8SM SN -BLSN OVC002 M03/M04 A2953 RMK SLP000 P0008 T10331044 METAR KJFK 062100Z 03025G37KT 1/4SM -SN -BLSN OVC003 M03/M04 A2948 RMK SLP983 P0003 T10331044 METAR KJFK 062200Z 03026G34KT 1/4SM -SN -BLSN OVC003 M03/M04 A2945 RMK SLP973 P0005 T10281039 DateTime (EST)TempDew PointHumiditySea Level PressureVisibilityWind DirWind SpeedGust SpeedPrecipEventsConditions 2/6/197812:00 AM23.03.04230.267.0North11.5-N/AOvercast 2/6/19781:00 AM26.11.93530.207.0NNE17.3-N/AOvercast 2/6/19782:00 AM25.01.03630.227.0NNE13.8-N/AOvercast 2/6/19783:00 AM25.019.98130.192.0NE15.0-N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19784:00 AM25.019.98130.153.0NE16.1-N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19785:00 AM25.021.08530.122.0NE23.0-N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19786:00 AM24.119.08130.092.0NNE23.0-N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19786:25 AM-9999.0-9999.0N/A30.081.0NNE23.0-N/AUnknown 2/6/19787:00 AM24.119.98430.070.5NNE23.0-N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19788:00 AM24.121.08830.010.2NE25.3-N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19788:11 AM-9999.0-9999.0N/A30.000.5NE20.7-N/AUnknown 2/6/19789:00 AM26.121.98429.990.2NE21.9-N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19789:15 AM-9999.0-9999.0N/A29.940.2NE19.634.5N/AUnknown 2/6/197810:00 AM27.024.18929.940.1NE23.034.5N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/197811:00 AM27.025.09229.880.1NNE25.340.3N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/197812:00 PM27.025.09229.780.1NNE23.034.5N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/197812:05 PM-9999.0-9999.0N/A29.740.0NE29.939.1N/AUnknown 2/6/19781:00 PM27.026.19629.690.0NNE32.241.4N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19782:00 PM28.026.19229.630.0NE32.240.3N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19783:00 PM28.928.09629.540.0NE40.356.4N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19784:00 PM30.028.09229.490.0NE46.059.8N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19785:00 PM30.027.08829.460.0NE28.847.2N/ASnowLight Snow 2/6/19786:00 PM28.027.09629.440.1NE34.5-N/ASnowLight Snow If I may be of help here, I am almost sure that the snow began somewhere between 8 and 9 PM on the 5th in the Philly area. I was in Haddonfield on 2/5 for a family event and remembered that it started snowing on the way home (lightly) at between those hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 wow this thread has fallen silent quickly. a quick look at the 0z NAM at hr 66, the PV is stronger and a bit farther NE of its 18z position at 72. also an anomalous blob of precip slides through VA and DC Thur afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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