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00z Euro 1-3-2011


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All of the models showed massively different solutions for the week leading up to the event. The Euro was poor in it's handling of the storm up until 2 days before. It is wise to objectively look at it now and simply go on a wait and see basis.

Very much agreed.

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My thinking also, plus the euro seems to like jazzing up systems along the coast this year. The analogs only showed one 4 inch or more storms in the dc area. Not sure what happened further north. Still the nao is getting to be in a good place and the model is showing a 50 50 low developing with the convoluted clipper so the pattern does look interesting. I'm not yet willing to jump on the euro second storm either but think it has a better chance than the 1st for down here.

There were some impressive events for PHL/NYC.

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The gfs scenario with a clipper for us and a big storm farther north looks reasonable. Maybe, it can dig a little farther south and threaten nyc and northern NJ.

it definitely makes more sense than the euro around here... i wonder how many times a euro type solution has ever happened even disregarding enso etc.

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it definitely makes more sense than the euro around here... i wonder how many times a euro type solution has ever happened even disregarding enso etc.

Digging out of the north like that, not many. 1978 it did but we got fringed. Other than that, I can't remember any offhad. Maybe someone else can. It's hard to dig a 500 low that far south without better southern stream help. I guess anything is possible but I'd sure bet against it.

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Digging out of the north like that, not many. 1978 it did but we got fringed. Other than that, I can't remember any offhad. Maybe someone else can. It's hard to dig a 500 low that far south without better southern stream help. I guess anything is possible but I'd sure bet against it.

i guess feb 9-10 was sorta similar but i think it came into the u.s. further west? that was not a common situation around here either for sure

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Digging out of the north like that, not many. 1978 it did but we got fringed. Other than that, I can't remember any offhad. Maybe someone else can. It's hard to dig a 500 low that far south without better southern stream help. I guess anything is possible but I'd sure bet against it.

I forgot to add that I do agree with you regarding this 500mb low. The odds right now are obviously stacked against it. It's an extreme output with no model support.

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Digging out of the north like that, not many. 1978 it did but we got fringed. Other than that, I can't remember any offhad. Maybe someone else can. It's hard to dig a 500 low that far south without better southern stream help. I guess anything is possible but I'd sure bet against it.

Well, Baltimore got "fringed" to the tune of a foot of snow, with 18 inches to the north and east, so "fringed" is a relative term. For DC/NOVA, I totally hear ya.

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the one low over Novia Scotia can't go anywhere because of the blocking, that ridging over the West is over into Western Canada all this energy has to go somewhere, doesn't it? and that ridge opens a downsloping escape, south into the US

so i see the pv coming this far south easily

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Well, Baltimore got "fringed" to the tune of a foot of snow, with 18 inches to the north and east, so "fringed" is a relative term. For DC/NOVA, I totally hear ya.

True, but that's the only storm I can rmember with such a track. I can remember lots of times when the models forecast such development only to have it occur farther to the north. That's what I'm trying to say. I think the euro has the upper low dig too far south. However, I do think there will be a closed low somewhere off the east coast to the north which certainly puts nyc in play and maybe PHL if it closes off fast enough far enough south.

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True, but that's the only storm I can rmember with such a track. I can remember lots of times when the models forecast such development only to have it occur farther to the north. That's what I'm trying to say. I think the euro has the upper low dig too far south. However, I do think there will be a closed low somewhere off the east coast to the north which certainly puts nyc in play and maybe PHL if it closes off fast enough far enough south.

honestly, if we couldn't get it to happen on 12/26, odds don't favor it happening this time

there is pattern repetition at play here imho

if we did get hit on 12/26, I would be more willing to buy into it

for now, its been 12 hours of model wx candy

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honestly, if we couldn't get it to happen on 12/26, odds don't favor it happening this time

there is pattern repetition at play here imho

if we did get hit on 12/26, I would be more willing to buy into it

for now, its been 12 hours of model wx candy

Totally agree here mitchnick. The SEASONAL PATTERN doesn't favor this one ... Miller B's don't normally work out well for us anyway. (Exception was Feb 12? from 2010).

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Totally agree here mitchnick. The SEASONAL PATTERN doesn't favor this one ... Miller B's don't normally work out well for us anyway. (Exception was Feb 12? from 2010).

Recall too, that that SW was rather south and brougt snows to the RNK CWA before blowing up off the coast--- much different and much more south.

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