Feb Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 All of the models showed massively different solutions for the week leading up to the event. The Euro was poor in it's handling of the storm up until 2 days before. It is wise to objectively look at it now and simply go on a wait and see basis. Very much agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Here's a comparison of the 500h forecasts from last night's euro. Versus the 12Z gfs , both are great for New England, one is not great for us. Still major differences in the evolution of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yes. It was only out to 108 when i posted that but a step toward the Euro IMO. 500 look pretty different over the east tho edit: wes beat me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 500 look pretty different over the east tho edit: wes beat me The gfs scenario with a clipper for us and a big storm farther north looks reasonable. Maybe, it can dig a little farther south and threaten nyc and northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 My thinking also, plus the euro seems to like jazzing up systems along the coast this year. The analogs only showed one 4 inch or more storms in the dc area. Not sure what happened further north. Still the nao is getting to be in a good place and the model is showing a 50 50 low developing with the convoluted clipper so the pattern does look interesting. I'm not yet willing to jump on the euro second storm either but think it has a better chance than the 1st for down here. There were some impressive events for PHL/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The gfs scenario with a clipper for us and a big storm farther north looks reasonable. Maybe, it can dig a little farther south and threaten nyc and northern NJ. it definitely makes more sense than the euro around here... i wonder how many times a euro type solution has ever happened even disregarding enso etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 There were some impressive events for PHL/NYC. Good, I don't think the upcoming event is dead for nyc yet. I'm just hoping for a dusting and then something better later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 it definitely makes more sense than the euro around here... i wonder how many times a euro type solution has ever happened even disregarding enso etc. Digging out of the north like that, not many. 1978 it did but we got fringed. Other than that, I can't remember any offhad. Maybe someone else can. It's hard to dig a 500 low that far south without better southern stream help. I guess anything is possible but I'd sure bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Digging out of the north like that, not many. 1978 it did but we got fringed. Other than that, I can't remember any offhad. Maybe someone else can. It's hard to dig a 500 low that far south without better southern stream help. I guess anything is possible but I'd sure bet against it. i guess feb 9-10 was sorta similar but i think it came into the u.s. further west? that was not a common situation around here either for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Digging out of the north like that, not many. 1978 it did but we got fringed. Other than that, I can't remember any offhad. Maybe someone else can. It's hard to dig a 500 low that far south without better southern stream help. I guess anything is possible but I'd sure bet against it. I forgot to add that I do agree with you regarding this 500mb low. The odds right now are obviously stacked against it. It's an extreme output with no model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Euro will look totally different in an hour or so anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Philly and NYC climo are differently different than DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Philly and NYC climo are differently different than DC area. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 lol deinitely......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Digging out of the north like that, not many. 1978 it did but we got fringed. Other than that, I can't remember any offhad. Maybe someone else can. It's hard to dig a 500 low that far south without better southern stream help. I guess anything is possible but I'd sure bet against it. Well, Baltimore got "fringed" to the tune of a foot of snow, with 18 inches to the north and east, so "fringed" is a relative term. For DC/NOVA, I totally hear ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 the one low over Novia Scotia can't go anywhere because of the blocking, that ridging over the West is over into Western Canada all this energy has to go somewhere, doesn't it? and that ridge opens a downsloping escape, south into the US so i see the pv coming this far south easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm sure the 12z Euro will be differently different than the 00z last night, so everyone just needs to calm down and take a deep breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 deinitely......lol marginally better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 i guess feb 9-10 was sorta similar but i think it came into the u.s. further west? that was not a common situation around here either for sure i pulled up some maps http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/6762-tracking-the-jan-7-9-threat-for-those-with-strong-hearts/page__view__findpost__p__215435 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 marginally better Bad spelling too much in a hurry!............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Can anyone link me the Euro Ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well, Baltimore got "fringed" to the tune of a foot of snow, with 18 inches to the north and east, so "fringed" is a relative term. For DC/NOVA, I totally hear ya. True, but that's the only storm I can rmember with such a track. I can remember lots of times when the models forecast such development only to have it occur farther to the north. That's what I'm trying to say. I think the euro has the upper low dig too far south. However, I do think there will be a closed low somewhere off the east coast to the north which certainly puts nyc in play and maybe PHL if it closes off fast enough far enough south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 True, but that's the only storm I can rmember with such a track. I can remember lots of times when the models forecast such development only to have it occur farther to the north. That's what I'm trying to say. I think the euro has the upper low dig too far south. However, I do think there will be a closed low somewhere off the east coast to the north which certainly puts nyc in play and maybe PHL if it closes off fast enough far enough south. honestly, if we couldn't get it to happen on 12/26, odds don't favor it happening this time there is pattern repetition at play here imho if we did get hit on 12/26, I would be more willing to buy into it for now, its been 12 hours of model wx candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm sure the 12z Euro will be differently different than the 00z last night, so everyone just needs to calm down and take a deep breath. That's one thing we can be certain of...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 That's one thing we can be certain of...........lol Actually it seems to like to be sort'a consistent with its bad ideas. Well, at least for two to three runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Actually it seems to like to be sort'a consistent with its bad ideas. Well, at least for two to three runs... Yeah, the Euro has struggled. Pehaps if they fire its hitting coach it will regain its swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 honestly, if we couldn't get it to happen on 12/26, odds don't favor it happening this time there is pattern repetition at play here imho if we did get hit on 12/26, I would be more willing to buy into it for now, its been 12 hours of model wx candy Totally agree here mitchnick. The SEASONAL PATTERN doesn't favor this one ... Miller B's don't normally work out well for us anyway. (Exception was Feb 12? from 2010). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Philly and NYC climo are differently different than DC area. Whoa!! since when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Totally agree here mitchnick. The SEASONAL PATTERN doesn't favor this one ... Miller B's don't normally work out well for us anyway. (Exception was Feb 12? from 2010). Recall too, that that SW was rather south and brougt snows to the RNK CWA before blowing up off the coast--- much different and much more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Whoa!! since when? Snowfall averages over the years, especially this year it seems! Not alot of course, but enough where it can make a big impact such as the 12/26 and 12/27 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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