phil882 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 While the gfs has been trending away from the huge coastal bomb up the eastern seaboard, it seems like the 00z Euro has other idea... wow! Things really get cranking at 120 hours... yes thats the polar vortex in North Carolina By 144 hours, the coastal low is all wrapped up and starting to weaken as it merges with the 500mb low. At 168 hours, the next southern stream impulse moves in, dumping snowfall across the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 While the gfs has been trending away from the huge coastal bomb up the eastern seaboard, it seems like the 00z Euro has other idea... wow! Things really get cranking at 120 hours... yes thats the polar vortex in North Carolina By 144 hours, the coastal low is all wrapped up and starting to weaken as it merges with the 500mb low. At 168 hours, the next southern stream impulse moves in, dumping snowfall across the deep south. Do you honestly believe the Polar Vortex is going to drop to Virginia and the Carolinas? I give this run 0% chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Do you honestly believe the Polar Vortex is going to drop to Virginia and the Carolinas? I give this run 0% chance of verifying. I agree... I think this run looks highly suspect with regards to the first system dropping down like that. We don't have nearly enough amplification off to the west to support such a massive dive in the PV. This run also shows some significant discontinuity from the last several runs of the EURO. However, I like the similar handling of the southern stream s/w which is very similar to the gfs. Still fun to post since the Euro is still considered to have the best accuracy at day 5 out of all the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Just for laughs... it phases the polar and subtropical shortwaves at 192 hrs and produces another coastal bomb at 212hrs... this run is pretty much a I-95 weenies wet dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Do you honestly believe the Polar Vortex is going to drop to Virginia and the Carolinas? I give this run 0% chance of verifying. I'd say that's about as likely as DC (a tropical location), getting 3 HECS in one season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'd say that's about as likely as DC (a tropical location), getting 3 HECS in one season. If this verifies the Lions win the next 10 Super Bowls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'd say that's about as likely as DC (a tropical location), getting 3 HECS in one season. We live in some interesting times..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It's just 1 run and all the models have been less than consistent. If it's still on there by 00z tomorrow night, you may want to start getting a bit excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The ensembles of many models have been indicating the possibility of coastal re-development near the DelMarva with a stalling/bombing off of the low near the NJ coast for many days now. This solution does not surprise me in the least. This is exactly what the ensembles have been trying to tell us for days. Do you honestly believe the Polar Vortex is going to drop to Virginia and the Carolinas? I give this run 0% chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The ensembles of many models have been indicating the possibility of coastal re-development near the DelMarva with a stalling/bombing off of the low near the NJ coast for many days now. This solution does not surprise me in the least. This is exactly what the ensembles have been trying to tell us for days. The way those solutions occur is different then the Euro though, I am not discounting a storm there, just not how the Euro depicts it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The way those solutions occur is different then the Euro though, I am not discounting a storm there, just not how the Euro depicts it. Agreed. Has the PV ever dipped even close to that far south? How about a phase with a coastal low? It just seems so unlikely that it would actually happen, even though it's not like it defies the laws of physics. I don't know, that's why I'm asking you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Agreed. Has the PV ever dipped even close to that far south? How about a phase with a coastal low? It just seems so unlikely that it would actually happen, even though it's not like it defies the laws of physics. I don't know, that's why I'm asking you... The first question I can't remember the last time, but I'm young an older met probably would have that answer.The second question it has happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I buy the 00z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I buy the 00z euro Of course you would because it shows you getting blasted... when the 12z comes and changes back I'm sure you will say Euro sucks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I buy the 00z euro I'll go in on it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I buy the 00z euro you must have deep pockets considering your recent purchase of the euro DC xmas blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 you must have deep pockets considering your recent purchase of the euro DC xmas blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The op Euro is not absolutely, completely without ensemble support... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Not saying I buy this solution but I am curious why we are getting explosive developement off the coast. I notice a weak reflection on the surface and at 500mb of some sort of energy passing through the southern ohio valley and the Carolinas. So my question is, are we getting a phase here or is the low imbedded in the PV doing all this on its own when it hits the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The first question I can't remember the last time, but I'm young an older met probably would have that answer.The second question it has happened before. Pretty close... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1985/us0120.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What an amazingly complex system coming up. Every model run has had an entirely different solution, and it all seems to be in the timing of the energy rotating around our PV. Snowgoose, is that map from 85 showing essentially a similar way we got the PV so far South? Was the blocking centered in the same general area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 What an amazingly complex system coming up. Every model run has had an entirely different solution, and it all seems to be in the timing of the energy rotating around our PV. Snowgoose, is that map from 85 showing essentially a similar way we got the PV so far South? Was the blocking centered in the same general area? Block had backed its way into N-central Canada W of Greenland http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_reanal-u.cgi?re=nhem≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&yy=1985&mm=01&dd=20&hh=12&overlay=no≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&yy=&mm=&dd=&hh= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Pretty close... http://www.meteo.psu...1985/us0120.php Hoosier posted that cold air outbreak in a different thread. What an amazing map. I have never seen anything even close in my life time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hoosier posted that cold air outbreak in a different thread. What an amazing map. I have never seen anything even close in my life time. The 80s as snowless as they were with a positive NAO had way more massive arctic outbreaks than the 2000s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Was looking over the GFS ensemble members and found almost a mirror image of the Euro. Only major difference was the PV was displaced a couple of hundred miles to the east on the GFS. Just thought it was interesting that the evolution of the PV was very similiar. 96 hr 120 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Was looking over the GFS ensemble members and found almost a mirror image of the Euro. Only major difference was the PV was displaced a couple of hundred miles to the east on the GFS. Just thought it was interesting that the evolution of the PV was very similiar. 96 hr 120 hr Thought I would also mention that 5 other members show a similiar look with the PV set up at 120 hrs as the Op Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The 80s as snowless as they were with a positive NAO had way more massive arctic outbreaks than the 2000s. The 80's were not "snowless" for everyone, as the south MA actually witnessed 4 winters with above normal snowfall and 6 with below normal. 86-87 dumped more than 200% of normal snowfall over much of Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Was looking over the GFS ensemble members and found almost a mirror image of the Euro. Only major difference was the PV was displaced a couple of hundred miles to the east on the GFS. Just thought it was interesting that the evolution of the PV was very similiar. 96 hr 120 hr Thanks...I just finished my morning GFS digest and went to the Euro thread....and ponder the same ....... Ducks on the pond! (that does not mean another bomb storm for NJ.....but if I were planning a ski trip to new england.....I would have a growing smile at this point. Hope everyone enjoyed the warm up.....now can we proceed to bust winter 2010/2011 long range forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Dr. Yes at it's finest. I have a hard time believing the PV moves over DC. The second storm looks more promising, but it's too far out to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Thanks...I just finished my morning GFS digest and went to the Euro thread....and ponder the same ....... Ducks on the pond! (that does not mean another bomb storm for NJ.....but if I were planning a ski trip to new england.....I would have a growing smile at this point. Hope everyone enjoyed the warm up.....now can we proceed to bust winter 2010/2011 long range forecasts? Had a chance to glance over the 06Z GFS ensemble members and they had only a couple that showed a semblance of the 00Z Euro PV setup. I take anything shown on an off run of the GFS with a grain of salt though. Kind of curious what the 12Z suite will show. If we get the Euro and some support from GFS ensemble members to show a similiar setup then I will start getting a little interested. If I were to bet though I think the final outcome will have the PV farther north then what has been showing on the models the last several days. Of course the last several years has seen the weather go to extremes, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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