famartin Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It's ok to be cautious since we need a lot to go right. But most everything has gone right for snow this winter. Oh? You got the jackpot on 12/26? And Friday's storm was the snow bomb the GEM showed for a bunch of runs? Its been good, there's no denying. But certainly not everything has gone right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Oh? You got the jackpot on 12/26? And Friday's storm was the snow bomb the GEM showed for a bunch of runs? Its been good, there's no denying. But certainly not everything has gone right. Didn't say everything has been perfect. But it rarely is like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Didn't say everything. But, I'd call it a good winter for snow. Even in most good winters, 96 and last year included, there have been big rainstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Didn't say everything has been perfect. But it rarely is like last year. For this storm, everything does have to be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Even in most good winters, 96 and last year included, there have been big rainstorms. I knew that. But if this storm goes wrong, it might not be because it's rain. Could brush us or be sleety/icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Even in most good winters, 96 and last year included, there have been big rainstorms. All I ask for is 20:1 ratios and 1.5" of QPF to work with...light fluffy snow, and lots of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I knew that. But if this storm goes wrong, it might not be because it's rain. Could brush us or be sleety/icy. The odds that its another option besides MECS are currently much higher than the odds that it is a MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 All I ask for is 20:1 ratios and 1.5" of QPF to work with...light fluffy snow, and lots of it Go to Utah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The odds that its another option besides MECS are currently much higher than the odds that it is a MECS. We shall see. Trends have been pretty good today. Night - see you tomorrow for more tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 We shall see. Trends have been pretty good today. Night - see you tomorrow for more tracking. How so? GFS came west with extremely marginal temps. EC has flipped and flopped. NAM (not that I trust it at all at this range) begets a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Go to Utah Eh, looking kinda warm/dry over there. Although, hour 384 of the GFS shows some promise. I get the feeling you're ready to pencil in a 75% rain/sleet storm over here. For good reason, we simply can't establish a cold air supplier. I see what people are saying with the late arrival of the HP over the GL and if we can get this to slow down another 12 hours we might have something interesting. I believe many times we see a late game surprise with those s/w features embedded within the flow. One of them speed up, or pop up out of nowhere, or slow down, and then the solution changes. We'll see if something like that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Eh, looking kinda warm/dry over there. Although, hour 384 of the GFS shows some promise. I get the feeling you're ready to pencil in a 75% rain/sleet storm over here. For good reason, we simply can't establish a cold air supplier. I see what people are saying with the late arrival of the HP over the GL and if we can get this to slow down another 12 hours we might have something interesting. I believe many times we see a late game surprise with those s/w features embedded within the flow. One of them speed up, or pop up out of nowhere, or slow down, and then the solution changes. We'll see if something like that happens. The way things are looking it might start as sleet, go to rain and then maybe go back to snow before ending along I-95. Not a major snowstorm. I think everyone should be thankful for every ounce of frozen they see with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I know the data is pointing in that direction, but the risk is still there for a winter storm. I'm still going with a moderate risk for a winter storm for the Philadelphia area. Just don't think things are clear cut on this event. Definitely not an easy forecast. Still were a few days away and more changes are likely. The one thing the Euro trended more to the coast the last several days. Be interesting if it shifted a bit more tomorrow.. Anyway, definitely an interesting event for sure.. The way things are looking it might start as sleet, go to rain and then maybe go back to snow before ending along I-95. Not a major snowstorm. I think everyone should be thankful for every ounce of frozen they see with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I know the data is pointing in that direction, but the risk is still there for a winter storm. I'm still going with a moderate risk for a winter storm for the Philadelphia area. Just don't think things are clear cut on this event. Definitely not an easy forecast. Still were a few days away and more changes are likely. The one thing the Euro trended more to the coast the last several days. Be interesting if it shifted a bit more tomorrow.. Anyway, definitely an interesting event for sure.. The most recent run shifted back west. Not onshore yet but close. The GFS also shifted west with its latest run. I agree there's a risk for a winter storm... but the severity is greatly in question. What I described above is what I'd go with now if I absolutely had to make a call. Wouldn't even think of putting accumulation numbers out now, other than to say "probably minor, moderate at most". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The most recent run shifted back west. Not onshore yet but close. The GFS also shifted west with its latest run. I agree there's a risk for a winter storm... but the severity is greatly in question. What I described above is what I'd go with now if I absolutely had to make a call. Wouldn't even think of putting accumulation numbers out now, other than to say "probably minor, moderate at most". mattinpa is locking you in for 4-8 for this storm for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 mattinpa is locking you in for 4-8 for this storm for him. He's not on 95, he's way up in middle Montco so he doesn't count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Dropped down to 2 degrees here at 5:30am. I believe that is the coldest temperatures I've seen since moving to the Delaware Valley in 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 -0.7 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Lowest here was 3 at 10 PM - 5 this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Low here was only 8.5...it looks like lower spots around Chester County were close to 0. Wxsim has 1 for the low tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I find it very entertaining all the ups and downs regarding these weather threats, 6 days ago everyone was getting along all was great now 3-4 days away from the threat and its every man for himself. Its great because it shows how much passion you all have for snow almost like a drug the more you get the more you need. I have worked every snowstorm for the past 20 years @ PD and never realized how much has to go right for snow to happen, yeah we have our experts but never thought much about it till I got on this site amazing. Whatever happens next week I hope everyone gets what they want and if not oh well its only weather and the next threat will be coming soon for you guys to track. AWESOME JOB KEEP IT UP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 I find it very entertaining all the ups and downs regarding these weather threats, 6 days ago everyone was getting along all was great now 3-4 days away from the threat and its every man for himself. Its great because it shows how much passion you all have for snow almost like a drug the more you get the more you need. I have worked every snowstorm for the past 20 years @ PD and never realized how much has to go right for snow to happen, yeah we have our experts but never thought much about it till I got on this site amazing. Whatever happens next week I hope everyone gets what they want and if not oh well its only weather and the next threat will be coming soon for you guys to track. AWESOME JOB KEEP IT UP can you put my driveway on your route? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Low here was only 8.5...it looks like lower spots around Chester County were close to 0. Wxsim has 1 for the low tonight We are in a little valley here. Think we would have dropped below zero last night if the CF had been a little later.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Dropped down to 2 degrees here at 5:30am. I believe that is the coldest temperatures I've seen since moving to the Delaware Valley in 2004. I was down to 3 just before midnight, then when I woke up at 7:45 AM - the temp was 9 degrees. I'll assume that the temp here in Spring Mount likely got down to 1 or 2 degrees sometime in the very early morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I find it very entertaining all the ups and downs regarding these weather threats, 6 days ago everyone was getting along all was great now 3-4 days away from the threat and its every man for himself. Its great because it shows how much passion you all have for snow almost like a drug the more you get the more you need. I have worked every snowstorm for the past 20 years @ PD and never realized how much has to go right for snow to happen, yeah we have our experts but never thought much about it till I got on this site amazing. Whatever happens next week I hope everyone gets what they want and if not oh well its only weather and the next threat will be coming soon for you guys to track. AWESOME JOB KEEP IT UP The more I learn about weather, that's one thing I've come to realize. It's amazing that it ever snows around here. And that's why I appreciate every flake that falls IMBY. I'd love a blizzard, but I'll still enjoy every dusting I get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 can you put my driveway on your route? NO PROBLEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I was down to 3 just before midnight, then when I woke up at 7:45 AM - the temp was 9 degrees. I'll assume that the temp here in Spring Mount likely got down to 1 or 2 degrees sometime in the very early morning hours. Yup, I was up to 10 this morning at 7am, big rise from 2 at 5:30. I'm sure you were close to 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i want it all (in snow).....I want it all (in snow).....and I want it now...guitar riff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So how would the Euro be for us here in Collegeville? Asking here because can't post IMBY in the storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So how would the Euro be for us here in Collegeville? Asking here because can't post IMBY in the storm thread. I think you should do fine in this storm.Many of the true weenie's ride the euro hard for some strange reason. They seem to take the recent run as the final outcome of this storm. The GFS has been doing well recently. Average a track between the GFS and euro and should get decent snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.