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Rolling E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD/Elko, NV/Big Jim: Not During Storm OBS Discussion/Banter Thread


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Yeah.......I'll take the coating to 6" storm vs. the opportunity for a storm with a 50% chance of 12"+ snow and a 50% chance of rain.

What sucks now is the potential things don't go down til late Wednesday or Thursday. This board may meltdown before then.

Each model run seems to get warmer. Up til yesterday the GFS was cold with snow. Now it hardly has enough cold air and its just a fringe sideswipe. If the GFS trends any further NW its probably gonna be more rain than anything else for I-95.

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EC went west again. This winter has been known for EC flip flops.

I'm not a big fan of making a call while the models are still flipping and flopping... but I'm almost ready to say this won't be a KU for NYC and PHL.. or even a major snowstorm. Moderate at most, and quite possibly little to no snow particularly at PHL. But I'll wait til the 12Z cycle tomorrow before putting the nail in the coffin of this potential KU...

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EC went west again. This winter has been known for EC flip flops.

I'm not a big fan of making a call while the models are still flipping and flopping... but I'm almost ready to say this won't be a KU for NYC and PHL.. or even a major snowstorm. Moderate at most, and quite possibly little to no snow particularly at PHL. But I'll wait til the 12Z cycle tomorrow before putting the nail in the coffin of this potential KU...

Really seems like no solution is off the table - GFS ens. give us a MECS.

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Sleet is better - is that what the Euro is showing north of Philly?

We don't get the same resolution of data for the EC as we do for the GFS and NAM. ECMWF doesn't like to distribute it even for those who pay, unless you pay a LOT more. But chances are good that its more sleet than freezing rain... true coastals almost never produce widespread and long lasting freezing rain.

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