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Rolling E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD/Elko, NV/Big Jim: Not During Storm OBS Discussion/Banter Thread


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Today is Day 34 of consecutive snow cover.

The ground has been white since January 7th, which is simply amazing for a year with a strong Nina and, in recent weeks, a +NAO.

It depends on where I look as to how much is left. Shades areas are green again, open area have anywhere from 3 to 8 inches.

What defines a "snow cover day" anyway? Does a certain % of ground covered have to be met?

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What defines a "snow cover day" anyway? Does a certain % of ground covered have to be met?

At least 50% of the natural exposed ground must be covered, with a total average of at least a half inch (which rounds up to 1 inch). If the total average is less than a half inch, or more than 50% of the ground is exposed, then it only counts as a trace of snow cover.

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At least 50% of the natural exposed ground must be covered, with a total average of at least a half inch (which rounds up to 1 inch). If the total average is less than 1", or more than 50% of the ground is exposed, then it only counts as a trace of snow cover.

very interesting.

currently 47 straight days here... should make it to 53.

ave snow depth right now is about 6"

best year (in terms of total days) was 1994... 64 days of snow cover.... but the longest continuous stretch was about 30 days.

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At least 50% of the natural exposed ground must be covered, with a total average of at least a half inch (which rounds up to 1 inch). If the total average is less than a half inch, or more than 50% of the ground is exposed, then it only counts as a trace of snow cover.

So I can have 6 inches all over my shaded yard that I should put down as a trace if the majority of ground elsewhere is bare.

I've been recording it as 'Patches of 6"' or 'Piles of 2 feet' when the snow is gone most other places.

Thanks for the clarification of this, never really knew that.

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Long range GFS is screaming typical Nina pattern with a strong S/E ridge and troughing in the west. At least two big lakes cutters with the first one coming in around day 10. If the temps actually warm into the 50/60's and then we get a 2-3" rain cutter that would be all she wrote for the snowpack and....

boat-passaic-river-floodjpg-b2d6c130d595b926_large.jpg

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Long range GFS is screaming typical Nina pattern with a strong S/E ridge and troughing in the west. At least two big lakes cutters with the first one coming in around day 10. If the temps actually warm into the 50/60's and then we get a 2-3" rain cutter that would be all she wrote for the snowpack and....

M'eh, it's been a great run. A Nina-like pattern has to surface at some point. Maybe there will be a return to cold with another shot or two at snow in March. If not, no complaints. This winter far exceeded my expectations.

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Long range GFS is screaming typical Nina pattern with a strong S/E ridge and troughing in the west. At least two big lakes cutters with the first one coming in around day 10. If the temps actually warm into the 50/60's and then we get a 2-3" rain cutter that would be all she wrote for the snowpack and....

boat-passaic-river-floodjpg-b2d6c130d595b926_large.jpg

What is your ridiculous obsession with flooding? Much of the snowcover has melted, and there isn't a disproportionate amout of snowcover North and West to provide runoff. So where are you getting these predictions of flooding from?

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The long range gfs is so reliable...lol. La Ninas usually have cool springs and if the blocking comes back those 50 or 60 degree temps is what we'll have all spring, May included.... which is horrible!!

As I mentioned in another thread... its not necessarily the wisest thing in the world to base a long range forecast on La Nina climo this year, based on how well that's worked out so far ;)

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Down to 13.8 here in NW Chesco at 915pm

Current snow depth is 9.5"

Wxsim has a low of 6 degrees by AM

It is also not as optimistic about a real warm up till Wed here is it's forecast...it does have 52 for a high on Wed but not illustrated in its text forecast printout

WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at 9:00 PM Feb 10, 2011

_______________________________________________________________________________

Tonight: Fair in the evening, becoming mostly clear after midnight. Low 6. Wind

west-southwest around 3 mph.

Friday: Sunny. High 29. Wind chill colder than 22. Wind west-southwest around 5

mph.

Friday night: Fair in the evening, becoming fair to partly cloudy after

midnight. Low 11. Wind chill down to 4. Wind southwest around 4 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of snow. High 28. Wind chill colder

than 17. Wind west around 9 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the morning, becoming 15

mph, gusting to 23 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation less than 20

percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch.

No snow accumulation expected.

Saturday night: Clear. Low 13. Wind chill down to 5. Wind west around 9 mph in

the evening, becoming 6 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny in the morning, becoming partly to mostly cloudy

in the afternoon. High 38. Wind south-southwest around 11 mph.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy

after midnight. Low 28. Wind chill down to 20. Wind south-southwest around 11

mph.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny in the morning, becoming partly to mostly cloudy

in the afternoon. High 42. Wind west around 14 mph, gusting to 21 mph.

Monday night: Partly cloudy in the evening, becoming clear after midnight. Low

20. Wind northwest around 7 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 38.

Wind west around 7 mph.

Tuesday night: Fair in the evening, becoming clear after midnight. Low 17. Wind

west-southwest around 3 mph.

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