Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think you should do fine in this storm.Many of the true weenie's ride the euro hard for some strange reason. They seem to take the recent run as the final outcome of this storm. The GFS has been doing well recently. Average a track between the GFS and euro and should get decent snows I think the GEFS is a reasonable compromise. Probably a little fast, but trackwise I think that it's prerty much the middle ground between the Euro/GGEM/UKMET/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So how would the Euro be for us here in Collegeville? Asking here because can't post IMBY in the storm thread. Matt, My best guess is that we're not going to be 100% snow in SE PA. The only questions are how much and how long of a change over. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If a blend of what the what the Euro/GFS shows at 12z today occurs Wed.-Thur., us in the Delaware Valley should have more snow on the ground by the end of the week, then we will at the start of the week...... in my opinion. I could see a period of rain or rain/snow mixed at the onset, but if this thing wraps up like the new Euro shows it should transition to snow as heavier precipation moves in and colder air is drawn into the region. Still.......WAY to early to even assume any specific outcome will occur. I can't believe this storm is still 3 days away. By the way, it is brutal outside with the wind. Temperature of 24 with a windchill 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well... I had hoped at least to be able to nail the coffin closed on this storm being a KU for the cities. But, the GFS trended back east and the EC shows a nice wraparound band. Still don't think the chances are good... especially given some of the other modeling... but there still seems to be a small chance that this ends up as a KU. I still like the description I gave before though (sleet to rain to snow, minor to moderate accums). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 In the spirit of the NFL playoffs...... 00z NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS looks improved. Now if we could time that CCB better for Philly N&W.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like models are generally converging on rain to heavy wet snow of the 3-6/4-8 variety.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Difficult to tell wtf happend on the Euro in that thread. Not like it matters much because there's no way in hell that the temps, QPF, and track, will be like what it shows in 3 days. Maybe 1 or 2 of those will be as modeled, but I highly doubt all 3. Not sure why everyone is getting so jumpy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 just going by 850s, cause i dont have soundings and this storm is all dynamics...it would be a 4-8 snow event for phl and burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 just going by 850s, cause i dont have soundings and this storm is all dynamics...it would be a 4-8 snow event for phl and burbs Assuming the EC is modeling the surface temps close to correct, ratios would suck... sub 10:1. That is also implied by the thicknesses being so high. I'm not ready to toss any numbers out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Assuming the EC is modeling the surface temps close to correct, ratios would suck... sub 10:1. That is also implied by the thicknesses being so high. I'm not ready to toss any numbers out... yea its going to be a pasting of snow. Some guy posted the euro soudings, and going off 850s phl has atleast .5 as snow assuming everything else just above the surface is below...ray isnt the euro have a little warm bias to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 yea its going to be a pasting of snow. Some guy posted the euro soudings, and going off 850s phl has atleast .5 as snow assuming everything else just above the surface is below...ray isnt the euro have a little warm bias to? It has in the past. I don't think its temps have been too bad this winter, discounting CAD situations. With temps up through 850 running so warm, ratios aren't going to be great to begin with. All the models are showing very high thicknesses for an all-snow situation, so that's likely them picking up on the isothermal soundings up to at least 850 and the near to slightly above freezing surface temps. Getting significant accumulation will be totally due to high snowfall rates overcoming the warm BL. It'll be a heavy wet snow that sticks to everything. And like I mentioned, ratios will suck... sub 10:1 most likely. I'm tired of tracking all these storms I'm not getting... I'm rooting for the GEM since its mainly rain But right now I still like the my call from earlier... sleet to rain to snow, light to moderate accumulations. No numbers yet, I'm just not that crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It has in the past. I don't think its temps have been too bad this winter, discounting CAD situations. With temps up through 850 running so warm, ratios aren't going to be great to begin with. All the models are showing very high thicknesses for an all-snow situation, so that's likely them picking up on the isothermal soundings up to at least 850 and the near to slightly above freezing surface temps. Getting significant accumulation will be totally due to high snowfall rates overcoming the warm BL. It'll be a heavy wet snow that sticks to everything. And like I mentioned, ratios will suck... sub 10:1 most likely. I'm tired of tracking all these storms I'm not getting... I'm rooting for the GEM since its mainly rain But right now I still like the my call from earlier... sleet to rain to snow, light to moderate accumulations. No numbers yet, I'm just not that crazy so the 6z nam isnt the number one model in your thoughts right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 so the 6z nam isnt the number one model in your thoughts right now Haha yeah no... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Of note I have recorded my first sub-zero reading in my database for Chester County since February of 1996 Currently Clear Skies Temp -0.6 RH 83% DP -4.5 Wind calm Snowcover at 6.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just checked the pocono cabin wx st and the temp is currently -5.7F. Here in Allaire it is 3F......brrrrrrrr The number one question of the morning.......HOW MUCH SNOW ARE WE GETTING TUESDAY/WED and will there be school?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 7:30am : 0 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 A balmy 7F here for a low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tony, Probably the lighter snow cover over there....I was at my sister's house yesterday in Mt Laurel and there was not a solid cover. With the cover I bet you would have been below for sure Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 -4.0f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ended up at -1.1 below here this AM....this ends the longest period without a subzero low in my data records back to 1894 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 A balmy 7F here for a low. shorts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 -21 at Bradford this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 1.22.11 : 0.8f 1.23.11 : -0.9f 1.24.11 : -4.0f not a bad three day run for low's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 4.3 this morning, lowest of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 -21 at Bradford this morning wasn't the tie-braker for the winter forecast contest the lowest temp at bradford? i think we all busted on that one. i guessed -8 if i recall correctly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The temp got down to -1 around 6 AM here in Spring Mount, PA. First below 0 temp in at least 5 years (I believe it was the winter of 04-05 that we last had a below 0 temperature). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 for phl and near by areas with wed storm, expect an inch or so, if you get more consider it a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 for phl and near by areas with wed storm, expect an inch or so, if you get more consider it a win. 1" of rain or snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 1" of rain or snow inch ot 2 of snow..not your area but phl. I don;t like that we have to depend on a ccb and dynamics to changeover. Up in your area will have no rpoblem getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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