Couple o' Clippers

[snowstormcanuck]

This week will feature a couple of clippers traversing the Great Lakes.

The first one (Jan 3-4) is a high confidence nuisance snow type event, 1 to perhaps locally 2" across a swath of the central Lakes. Here's the 18z NAM's depiction of the storm at 36 hours

The second clipper (Jan 5-6) is more of an enigma. Models have been vacillating as to the scenario the last couple of runs. Just to demonstrate the uncertainty, here's the 18z NAM at 84

1000mb just north of SSM.

18z GFS on the other hand is about 36 hours slower and a good bit further south:

Not to mention the lack of continuity between the 18z/02 and 12z/02 GFS. This one though looks like it has more potential to feature higher snowfall accumulations.

This is by no means an exhaustive explanation of the clippers, just getting the conversation rolling.

[michsnowfreak]

We need these clippers lol. Im not expecting much of anything from clipper #1, but have hopes for the end of the week. Clipper, rotating L, les...there looks to certainly be POTENTIAL.

Was just outside, it sucks to have completely bare ground again, especially since its already cold again. The ground does have that frozen crunch when you walk on it, and the few small snow piles I have remaining I can stand on top of as if they were a rock. Baby steps to rebuild the snowpack the NYE torch destroyed are fine, long winter ahead. But need to get the ball rolling asap, so lets start with these clippers.

[Chicago WX]

So many clippers/impulses to keep track of. Regardless, looks like they'll all stay to the north of here. Should be good times for MN, WI, MI, ON, etc.

[snowstormcanuck]

So many clippers/impulses to keep track of. Regardless, looks like they'll all stay to the north of here. Should be good times for MN, WI, MI, ON, etc.

Meh, 18z GFS gives you some love, although it's a bit of an outlier attm. Actually, the 12z GGEM had a more southern impulse, but that may have been a 3rd clipper

[Chicago WX]

Meh, 18z GFS gives you some love, although it's a bit of an outlier attm. Actually, the 12z GGEM had a more southern impulse, but that may have been a 3rd clipper

12z Euro spreads some love into here with the 2nd or maybe 3rd clipper...I'm not sure which one to be exact. Still, the bulk of these should deposit snow to the north of here. We may be able to squeak out a 1-2 deal with one of them, which is cool. I really like the potential for bigger things for a lot of us in the longer range though.

[baroclinic_instability]

Second one is interesting and not really a true clipper. Semantics aside, looks interesting, and some scenarios have a phase between the Canadian vortex and a Pacific low amplitude S/W. Not going to be a big dump by any means, but a good blast of cold air and snow showers followed by persistent light snow showers/flurries behind the front, especially across the lakes. It should liven things up a little around here.

[snowstormcanuck]

Second one is interesting and not really a true clipper. Semantics aside, looks interesting, and some scenarios have a phase between the Canadian vortex and a Pacific low amplitude S/W. Not going to be a big dump by any means, but a good blast of cold air and snow showers followed by persistent light snow showers/flurries behind the front, especially across the lakes. It should liven things up a little around here.

Could you help we that one. I would define a clipper as a quick moving, generally moisture starved northern stream s/w dropping out of the Canadian Prairies (including MB maulers/SK screamers). Is that definition correct/If so, why does the 2nd storm not qualify as a clipper?

[baroclinic_instability]

Could you help we that one. I would define a clipper as a quick moving, generally moisture starved northern stream s/w dropping out of the Canadian Prairies (including MB maulers/SK screamers). Is that definition correct/If so, why does the 2nd storm not qualify as a clipper?

Clippers are generally low amplitude waves in the middle troposphere which incites low level cyclogenesis, generally from the surface to 850 hpa, sometimes up to 700 hpa. It is a steady state cyclogenesis and and the lack of moisture means diabatic effects are essentially minimal, hence it can remain essentially steady-state. These open waves in the middle troposhere progress over tight low level baroclinic zones and often develop tight cyclones and can develop regions of strong frontogenesis. These waves we are dealing with, especially the first one, progress over relatively diffuse baroclinic zones in the low levels and typically remain an open wave through the depth of the troposphere. I consider these weak upper disturbances aka "impulses".

Here is a classic clipper with an open wave aloft and strong low level cyclogenesis passing over an intense baroclinic zone

http://www.meteo.psu...07/us0222j3.php

Another example was super clipper event where a very low amplitude wave incited deep and strong frontogenesis as it passed over the low level baroclinic zone.

Semantics though, don't worry I am getting picky here. Even then some may disagree anyways.

[Organizing Low]

oh look its a clipper...

thank god.

[snowstormcanuck]

Clippers are generally low amplitude waves in the middle troposphere which incites low level cyclogenesis, generally from the surface to 850 hpa, sometimes up to 700 hpa. It is a steady state cyclogenesis and and the lack of moisture means diabatic effects are essentially minimal, hence it can remain essentially steady-state. These open waves in the middle troposhere progress over tight low level baroclinic zones and often develop tight cyclones and can develop regions of strong frontogenesis. These waves we are dealing with, especially the first one, progress over relatively diffuse baroclinic zones in the low levels and typically remain an open wave through the depth of the troposphere. I consider these weak upper disturbances aka "impulses".

Here is a classic clipper with an open wave aloft and strong low level cyclogenesis passing over an intense baroclinic zone

http://www.meteo.psu...07/us0222j3.php

Another example was super clipper event where a very low amplitude wave incited deep and strong frontogenesis as it passed over the low level baroclinic zone.

Semantics though, don't worry I am getting picky here. Even then some may disagree anyways.

Thanks for that. I can see why you wouldn't label the second storm a clipper according to that criteria:

Too much amplitude and closed circulation through 500mb.

[BowMeHunter]

You know this winter sucks when the board is getting excited about clippers. I guess you have to take what you can get but these are not worth the time unless you like tracking rain showers in spring and summer - Yawn.

[baroclinic_instability]

Thanks for that. I can see why you wouldn't label the second storm a clipper according to that criteria:

Too much amplitude and closed circulation through 500mb.

Main difference is the low level baroclinic zone, semantics though.

This Canadian vortex looks fun, and it may be funner if we get some sort of phase with that Pacific disturbance. I am all for arctic air, a little wind, and pixie dust. Better than nothing at all.

[baroclinic_instability]

You know this winter sucks when the board is getting excited about clippers. I guess you have to take what you can get but these are not worth the time unless you like tracking rain showers in spring and summer - Yawn.

Looks like this weak disturbance heading your way now might drop a good dusting to 1/2" of fluff for you.

[jdrenken]

Ahhh...but the pattern shows that what comes after the clippers is something to look forward too.

[BowMeHunter]

Looks like this weak disturbance heading your way now might drop a good dusting to 1/2" of fluff for you.

That's like giving a crack addict a exhale of smoke..

Don't mind me anyways. I'm just sick of clippers blowing up west and now probably warnings and advisory's out east. Without a sub tropical jet? I might as well take what I can get... But I'd rather pull a least snowiest winter like Toronto then deal with this crap much longer.

This football game tonight is for 600 bucks in the office pool and the Rams taking it up the ass so far... Wonder who I have. Would only be fitting that a QB to only start a game or two in his career, with white in his first name, screws me over.

Time to pick the wife up at the airport.. I'm sure she can't wait to show me the pics of snow they got all the way down through Atlanta last weekend... I got the last laugh when it was in the 20's in Orlando on tues and wed to start 2 of their days out at the Parks :hitler:

[buckeye]

So many clippers/impulses to keep track of. Regardless, looks like they'll all stay to the north of here. Should be good times for MN, WI, MI, ON, etc.

hell i'm just happy that it's finally back to the question of whether the clipper is too far north vs.how much, if any, will make it east of IN.

[IWXwx]

Second one is interesting and not really a true clipper. Semantics aside, looks interesting, and some scenarios have a phase between the Canadian vortex and a Pacific low amplitude S/W. Not going to be a big dump by any means, but a good blast of cold air and snow showers followed by persistent light snow showers/flurries behind the front, especially across the lakes. It should liven things up a little around here.

If that shortwave does phase with the vortex, wouldn't help pull down colder air than currently forecasted and perhaps help infuse a little more Pac moisture, helping the front/wave "over perform"?

[Organizing Low]

You know this winter sucks when the board is getting excited about clippers. I guess you have to take what you can get but these are not worth the time unless you like tracking rain showers in spring and summer - Yawn.

hard times for sure.

[IWXwx]

Ahhh...but the pattern shows that what comes after the clippers is something to look forward too.

It thought the Euro was showing a PV dropping down across the GL/OV the middle of next week?

[baroclinic_instability]

If that shortwave does phase with the vortex, wouldn't help pull down colder air than currently forecasted and perhaps help infuse a little more Pac moisture, helping the front/wave "over perform"?

Yeah good way of saying it. A good phase will act as a "trigger" to incite more cold air advection out of that Canadian Vortex, possibly enhancing the front a little and maybe squeezing out a little more snow. Not much though, but better than nothing.

[dmc76]

Is it just me or is Clipper #2 almost identical to previous clippers we had in December? Storm after this Clipper looks almost the same this far out to the X-Mas storm...

[baroclinic_instability]

We should prolly post maps (or at least dates) when we reference potential disturbances/impulses/clippers because in this flow/pattern there looks to be possibly three trackable systems, potentially 4 depending on the guidance through the next 152 hours.

The way I see it there are two weak disturbances to deal with the first 60 hours, a possible third ahead of the Canadian Vortex dropping out of Canada (depends on timing). Depending on whether that third wave phases with the Canadian Vortex, there may eventually be 4 total.

[JoMo]

Is it just me or is Clipper #2 almost identical to previous clippers we had in December? Storm after this Clipper looks almost the same this far out to the X-Mas storm...

depends on what model run you are talking about? GFS is different every 6 hours, GGEM and Euro are different every 12.

[dmc76]

depends on what model run you are talking about? GFS is different every 6 hours, GGEM and Euro are different every 12.

Im looking at the GFS

[Stevo6899]

NAm shows decent precip just north of detroit along I-69 with the first distrubance. .10-.25 [precip with temps the way they are could yield 2-3 inches. Look at me getting excited for 2 inches. Lowering my standards

[dmc76]

NAm shows decent precip just north of detroit along I-69 with the first distrubance. .10-.25 [precip with temps the way they are could yield 2-3 inches. Look at me getting excited for 2 inches. Lowering my standards

YEP. Excited about 2"

I think a lot of that is LES. So how much stock do we put into it

[Stevo6899]

YEP. Excited about 2"

I think a lot of that is LES. So how much stock do we put into it

It's rare to see snow in the teens to lower 20's around this area. That usually happens in minnesota and the upper midwest. So while precip amounts dont look to be impressive it wont take much to add up, especially if we can get some moisture pulled into one of these. I just hope the air wont be too dry and we get virga for a long period.

[Harry]

Clippers are generally low amplitude waves in the middle troposphere which incites low level cyclogenesis, generally from the surface to 850 hpa, sometimes up to 700 hpa. It is a steady state cyclogenesis and and the lack of moisture means diabatic effects are essentially minimal, hence it can remain essentially steady-state. These open waves in the middle troposhere progress over tight low level baroclinic zones and often develop tight cyclones and can develop regions of strong frontogenesis. These waves we are dealing with, especially the first one, progress over relatively diffuse baroclinic zones in the low levels and typically remain an open wave through the depth of the troposphere. I consider these weak upper disturbances aka "impulses".

Here is a classic clipper with an open wave aloft and strong low level cyclogenesis passing over an intense baroclinic zone

http://www.meteo.psu...07/us0222j3.php

Another example was super clipper event where a very low amplitude wave incited deep and strong frontogenesis as it passed over the low level baroclinic zone.

Semantics though, don't worry I am getting picky here. Even then some may disagree anyways.

I tend to think of Jan 22nd 2005 ( close to that date i do believe.Granted this was a extreme clipper ) as a more traditional clipper/track that drops out of Canada across the Dakotas/MN towards the upper OV etc and not one that travels along the US/Canadian border.

YEP. Excited about 2"

I think a lot of that is LES. So how much stock do we put into it

I would not put much into it if the 18z GFS is correct. Basically we get screwed by that deal. Screws up the favorable LES flow etc. It is our worst possible outcome here in S.MI. So hopefully it was just 18z BS.

[dmc76]

It's rare to see snow in the teens to lower 20's around this area. That usually happens in minnesota and the upper midwest. So while precip amounts dont look to be impressive it wont take much to add up, especially if we can get some moisture pulled into one of these. I just hope the air wont be too dry and we get virga for a long period.

Agree... Snow ratios good. Looks like your typical off and on Snow showers that sometimes could produce a quick dusting. So lets hope it happens a few times so we could get this ground covered.

[jdrenken]

It thought the Euro was showing a PV dropping down across the GL/OV the middle of next week?

When it came to the 12DEC10 storm, the Euro at 12DEC10 00Z (240hr) had a 999 LP in Western LA and a 1029 SLP close to Fargo, ND.