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JAN. 6-9 LES Set up


Indystorm

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Holy crap! Late getting on here this morning and just catching up.

Lots of congrats are in order for SSC and the Toronto gang. Looks like you are going to end up with at least a half a foot of unexpected snow. This is gonna cost you some $$$ though. Maybe I should put some cash on the line. :bike:

Stebo said the same thing. You should try it. It's worked wonders for me. :)

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There's some relatively good convergence coming off Huron this morning down into Detroit., but I am a little surprised by the lack of activity so far.

I'm actually seeing sunshine (when's the last time we've seen it?), but it did snow again last night (another inch?) because the car is covered back up.

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+SN continues. Over 5". This might be the biggest pure LES event I've ever seen.

Usually these pics don't do the snowfall rate justice, but this is pretty close. That's a tree by the way.

post-257-0-84814300-1294496639.jpg

congrats TORONTO!!!!!:snowman: :snowman: :snowman: :snowman:

Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport Date: 9:00 AM EST Saturday 8 January 2011

  • Condition: Heavy Snow Pressure: 99.9 kPa Tendency: rising Visibility: 0.2 km .......1/16 mile folks!

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:thumbsup:

Lots of good things happening this morning. Wow to the northern IN LES and about time for the Toronto area.

The band off Lk Ontario right now is very impressive. It's akin to anything you'd see on a typical NW or WNW flow, which is unusual because E wind LES is usually plagued by either low inversion heights, or shear. This event had neither. If the flow was to stay constant, we'd be getting absolutely crushed.

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congrats TORONTO!!!!!:snowman: :snowman: :snowman: :snowman:

Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport Date: 9:00 AM EST Saturday 8 January 2011

  • Condition: Heavy Snow Pressure: 99.9 kPa Tendency: rising Visibility: 0.2 km .......1/16 mile folks!

I'm heading there in 25 mins!:arrowhead::snowman:

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There's some relatively good convergence coming off Huron this morning down into Detroit., but I am a little surprised by the lack of activity so far.

I'm actually seeing sunshine (when's the last time we've seen it?), but it did snow again last night (another inch?) because the car is covered back up.

I foresee things filling in within the next couple of hours. Especially North and East of the City.

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so ive been following the upper level maps quite closely the past week watching the inv trof this weekend for us over here...

but anyways, i kept looking at the map and seeing that ULL dive west and south of toronto......i kept thinking in my head, wow that looks like a great setup for some surprise snows in toronto......i wasnt sure how (ie LES or ULL stuff).....but i recall that event in MW and chitown last year......the new england mets always follow the rule......a good ULL passes south of your region, it gon snow!

i shoulda mentioned it, woulda looked like a genius LOL :P

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so ive been following the upper level maps quite closely the past week watching the inv trof this weekend for us over here...

but anyways, i kept looking at the map and seeing that ULL dive west and south of toronto......i kept thinking in my head, wow that looks like a great setup for some surprise snows in toronto......i wasnt sure how (ie LES or ULL stuff).....but i recall that event in MW and chitown last year......the new england mets always follow the rule......a good ULL passes south of your region, it gon snow!

i shoulda mentioned it, woulda looked like a genius LOL :P

Yeah, the H5 and even H7 low took a perfect track. The problem with the models up until yesterday was that they never closed off a centre below 700mb, which would have kept the flow in the lower 8000 feet of the atmosphere in a NW flow. Then at 18z yesterday the NAM popped an subtle closed low at 850 and the sfc, we get a unidirectional flow out of the E, and presto.

Snow is coming down a little lighter now. Heart of the band has drifted south of me. Now it's time for the top up snow.

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Yup, same time as the NAM. Hi res models were all over this at 18z yesterday.

Btw...how did Ottawa do with the "norlun" trough?

just updated the Clipper thread.....i stayed home in montreal for the weekend....OB reported 2-3 inches last night....they got into a break as the trof pivoted past them (a bit further than modleed) but now its sunk back down through the region.....so still snowing there this morning, friend texted me and said nice big flakes are falling this morning. radar looks decent, snow coming in from the ESE now as the base of the trof now appears to be north of boston......CT got hammered yesterday.

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9 inch 24 hr. snowfall total from numerous measurements in my backyard at Dunlap just se of Elkhart. Band seems to be shifting westward with blue sky to my north and sunshine here now after an extremely heavy snow burst a half hr. ago. Saw a report of 4.9 inches at Millersburg in se Elkhart county from earlier this morning so the precip gradient picks up dramatically as one goes nw to the South Bend area.

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I foresee things filling in within the next couple of hours. Especially North and East of the City.

Probably. There's no lack of instability out there with a 500mb cold pool of -40*C celsius overhead, and the strong daytime heating.

The convergence is still there too right now.

That lone snow squall tracking down US-23 looks pretty intense.

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Just to show how volatile (instability-wise) the atmosphere is...

http://forecast.weat...ather+Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1118 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

MIZ060-061-068-069-075-081830-

SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-WASHTENAW-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OWOSSO...FLINT...HOWELL...PONTIAC...

ANN ARBOR

1118 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL TRACK NORTH

TO SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF

SHIAWASSEE...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...OAKLAND...AND WASHTENAW

COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE

HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS

ESPECIALLY ALONG US 23 BETWEEN FLINT AND BRIGHTON. QUICK

ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED EARLIER

FROM THIS BAND.

$$

DRK

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

1144 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

UPDATE

MANY FACTORS HAVE COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A MAJOR LAKE EFFECT

SNOW EVENT ACROSS NW PORTION OF CWA. DEEP MOISTURE...CYCLONIC

LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW... INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 10KFT. LAKE INDUCED

INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH DELTA T'S IN THE MID TEENS

AND LAKE INDUCED AROUND 500J/KT... BUT CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT GIVEN

OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS. MODEST N-NW FLOW PRODUCING LONG FETCH

ACROSS LM AND ALLOWING SEVERAL MESOVORTS TO FORM OVER ERN PORTION

OF THE LAKE TRANSLATING SOUTH WITH ENHANCED BANDING IN EACH. SNOW

AMOUNTS THUS FAR THIS MORNING REPORTED CLOSE TO 2FT IN THE SBN

AREA. WOULD EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY THIS

AFTN/TNGT BASED ON UPR LOW COLD POOL MOVG EAST AND A SLOW LOWERING

OF INVERSION HEIGHTS... HWVR LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN

SUFFICIENT TO CONT LES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WITH 12Z NAM

INDICATING A LONG NNW LOW LEVEL FETCH SETTING UP

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT DOMINANT SNOW BAND FORMING ALONG IT ACROSS THE

NW PORTION OF THE CWA WITH AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUING

ACROSS THE COUNTIES CURRENTLY IN LES WARNINGS. BANDS SHOULD ALSO

OCNLY AFFECT MOST OF SURROUNDING COUNTIES WITH LESSER BUT PSBLY

STILL SGFNT ACCUMS. THUS, GENERALLY CONTINUED WITH GOING HEADLINES

WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMS. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS TO DROP

ST. JOE MI AND LAGRANGE IN FROM THE ADVISORY AS APPEARS BANDS

SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN WEST OF THERE.

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I'm looking forward to getting some more snow from this band as it rotates back in here from the northwest. Last night we got about five inches of snow in a several hour time span. It was great! This week's snow probably compacted to about 8 or 9 inches. Hopefully by the end of tonight, we can be over the 1 foot mark.

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