snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Holy crap! Late getting on here this morning and just catching up. Lots of congrats are in order for SSC and the Toronto gang. Looks like you are going to end up with at least a half a foot of unexpected snow. This is gonna cost you some $$$ though. Maybe I should put some cash on the line. Stebo said the same thing. You should try it. It's worked wonders for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 There's some relatively good convergence coming off Huron this morning down into Detroit., but I am a little surprised by the lack of activity so far. I'm actually seeing sunshine (when's the last time we've seen it?), but it did snow again last night (another inch?) because the car is covered back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This is so rare I find it more interesting than synoptic snows of same amount. Maybe 8-10 cm in MBY so far. If it keeps going we could easily get over 6 inches today. Who knew? didn't you just come back from Hawaii? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 +SN continues. Over 5". This might be the biggest pure LES event I've ever seen. Usually these pics don't do the snowfall rate justice, but this is pretty close. That's a tree by the way. congrats TORONTO!!!!! :snowman: :snowman: Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport Date: 9:00 AM EST Saturday 8 January 2011 Condition: Heavy Snow Pressure: 99.9 kPa Tendency: rising Visibility: 0.2 km .......1/16 mile folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Lots of good things happening this morning. Wow to the northern IN LES and about time for the Toronto area. The band off Lk Ontario right now is very impressive. It's akin to anything you'd see on a typical NW or WNW flow, which is unusual because E wind LES is usually plagued by either low inversion heights, or shear. This event had neither. If the flow was to stay constant, we'd be getting absolutely crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 congrats TORONTO!!!!! :snowman: :snowman: Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport Date: 9:00 AM EST Saturday 8 January 2011 Condition: Heavy Snow Pressure: 99.9 kPa Tendency: rising Visibility: 0.2 km .......1/16 mile folks! I'm heading there in 25 mins! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 didn't you just come back from Hawaii? lol, that's Toronto4. We got three members with "toronto" in their SN so don't feel bad about being confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 There's some relatively good convergence coming off Huron this morning down into Detroit., but I am a little surprised by the lack of activity so far. I'm actually seeing sunshine (when's the last time we've seen it?), but it did snow again last night (another inch?) because the car is covered back up. I foresee things filling in within the next couple of hours. Especially North and East of the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm heading there in 25 mins! Drive safely. It'll be out of Toronto when you arrive but you're probably going to run into it on your drive up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 so ive been following the upper level maps quite closely the past week watching the inv trof this weekend for us over here... but anyways, i kept looking at the map and seeing that ULL dive west and south of toronto......i kept thinking in my head, wow that looks like a great setup for some surprise snows in toronto......i wasnt sure how (ie LES or ULL stuff).....but i recall that event in MW and chitown last year......the new england mets always follow the rule......a good ULL passes south of your region, it gon snow! i shoulda mentioned it, woulda looked like a genius LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 lol, that's Toronto4. We got three members with "toronto" in their SN so don't feel bad about being confused. ahhh....sorry for the confusion....i saw Torontonian only had 3 posts and thought it was him/her. anyways, that 10 flake icon is sinful isnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 lol EC changed the amount to 10-15cm now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 so ive been following the upper level maps quite closely the past week watching the inv trof this weekend for us over here... but anyways, i kept looking at the map and seeing that ULL dive west and south of toronto......i kept thinking in my head, wow that looks like a great setup for some surprise snows in toronto......i wasnt sure how (ie LES or ULL stuff).....but i recall that event in MW and chitown last year......the new england mets always follow the rule......a good ULL passes south of your region, it gon snow! i shoulda mentioned it, woulda looked like a genius LOL Yeah, the H5 and even H7 low took a perfect track. The problem with the models up until yesterday was that they never closed off a centre below 700mb, which would have kept the flow in the lower 8000 feet of the atmosphere in a NW flow. Then at 18z yesterday the NAM popped an subtle closed low at 850 and the sfc, we get a unidirectional flow out of the E, and presto. Snow is coming down a little lighter now. Heart of the band has drifted south of me. Now it's time for the top up snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 lol EC changed the amount to 10-15cm now lol, they were a little sluggish with this one. Writing was on the wall 12 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 lol, they were a little sluggish with this one. Writing was on the wall 12 hours ago. did the RGEM pick up on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ahhh....sorry for the confusion....i saw Torontonian only had 3 posts and thought it was him/her. anyways, that 10 flake icon is sinful isnt it? Brings a tear to my eye.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 did the RGEM pick up on it? Yup, same time as the NAM. Hi res models were all over this at 18z yesterday. Btw...how did Ottawa do with the "norlun" trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 does EC do AFD"s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 does EC do AFD"s? They occasionally release one, but you have to subscribe to it by email. ON_WX knows the link. I'll get him to forward you it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yup, same time as the NAM. Hi res models were all over this at 18z yesterday. Btw...how did Ottawa do with the "norlun" trough? just updated the Clipper thread.....i stayed home in montreal for the weekend....OB reported 2-3 inches last night....they got into a break as the trof pivoted past them (a bit further than modleed) but now its sunk back down through the region.....so still snowing there this morning, friend texted me and said nice big flakes are falling this morning. radar looks decent, snow coming in from the ESE now as the base of the trof now appears to be north of boston......CT got hammered yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 9 inch 24 hr. snowfall total from numerous measurements in my backyard at Dunlap just se of Elkhart. Band seems to be shifting westward with blue sky to my north and sunshine here now after an extremely heavy snow burst a half hr. ago. Saw a report of 4.9 inches at Millersburg in se Elkhart county from earlier this morning so the precip gradient picks up dramatically as one goes nw to the South Bend area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The thing with LES is that you can go from feast to famine in no time at all. Dim sunshine and flurries right now. Couldn't quite get to half a foot. Looks like my storm total will be 5.7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I foresee things filling in within the next couple of hours. Especially North and East of the City. Probably. There's no lack of instability out there with a 500mb cold pool of -40*C celsius overhead, and the strong daytime heating. The convergence is still there too right now. That lone snow squall tracking down US-23 looks pretty intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just to show how volatile (instability-wise) the atmosphere is... http://forecast.weat...ather+Statement SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1118 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 MIZ060-061-068-069-075-081830- SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-WASHTENAW- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OWOSSO...FLINT...HOWELL...PONTIAC... ANN ARBOR 1118 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL TRACK NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SHIAWASSEE...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...OAKLAND...AND WASHTENAW COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS ESPECIALLY ALONG US 23 BETWEEN FLINT AND BRIGHTON. QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED EARLIER FROM THIS BAND. $$ DRK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Absolute whiteout near Oakville On, more pics later when i get to toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1144 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 UPDATE MANY FACTORS HAVE COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ACROSS NW PORTION OF CWA. DEEP MOISTURE...CYCLONIC LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW... INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 10KFT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH DELTA T'S IN THE MID TEENS AND LAKE INDUCED AROUND 500J/KT... BUT CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT GIVEN OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS. MODEST N-NW FLOW PRODUCING LONG FETCH ACROSS LM AND ALLOWING SEVERAL MESOVORTS TO FORM OVER ERN PORTION OF THE LAKE TRANSLATING SOUTH WITH ENHANCED BANDING IN EACH. SNOW AMOUNTS THUS FAR THIS MORNING REPORTED CLOSE TO 2FT IN THE SBN AREA. WOULD EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY THIS AFTN/TNGT BASED ON UPR LOW COLD POOL MOVG EAST AND A SLOW LOWERING OF INVERSION HEIGHTS... HWVR LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO CONT LES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WITH 12Z NAM INDICATING A LONG NNW LOW LEVEL FETCH SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...EXPECT DOMINANT SNOW BAND FORMING ALONG IT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA WITH AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUING ACROSS THE COUNTIES CURRENTLY IN LES WARNINGS. BANDS SHOULD ALSO OCNLY AFFECT MOST OF SURROUNDING COUNTIES WITH LESSER BUT PSBLY STILL SGFNT ACCUMS. THUS, GENERALLY CONTINUED WITH GOING HEADLINES WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMS. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS TO DROP ST. JOE MI AND LAGRANGE IN FROM THE ADVISORY AS APPEARS BANDS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN WEST OF THERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 There is a long dominant snow band in the southern half of Lake Michigan this Sat. mid afternoon. Looks like the southern end is shifting westward a bit and LaPorte and Porter Counties in Indiana may get in on the action. http://weather2.admin.niu.edu/niuft.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 There is a long dominant snow band in the southern half of Lake Michigan this Sat. mid afternoon. Looks like the southern end is shifting westward a bit and LaPorte and Porter Counties in Indiana may get in on the action. http://weather2.admin.niu.edu/niuft.html LOT upgraded Porter county to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm looking forward to getting some more snow from this band as it rotates back in here from the northwest. Last night we got about five inches of snow in a several hour time span. It was great! This week's snow probably compacted to about 8 or 9 inches. Hopefully by the end of tonight, we can be over the 1 foot mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yes, it's usual for the band to swing back east again as the upper circulation eventually pulls away. Good luck to you in Muskegon. I've got some sunshine, bright blue skies, and glistening white snow of 9.5 inches on the ground here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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