ayuud Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Did that Erie band reach you guys last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Did that Erie band reach you guys last night? Yeah, BUF even mentioned that in their AFD NOW...TO MAKE MATTERS MORE INTERESTING...ON THE MESOSCALE WE HAD A FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF LK EFFECT OVER LK ERIE MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS FORMED LAST EVENING ON A TYPICAL SW-NE ORIENTATION...BUT IT NEVER MOVED ONSHORE. RATHER...SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECAME L/V AND EVEN BACKED TO SE...KEEPING THE BAND OFFSHORE AND EVENTUALLY SHOVING IT NORTH INTO THE NIAG PENINSULA. AT PRESS TIME...REMNANTS OF THIS BAND WERE SWINGING NORTHWEST UP ACROSS THE GOLDEN HORSESHOE OF ONTARIO...YOU DONT SEE LK ERIE SNOW MAKING IT TO TORONTO VERY OFTEN. It was enhanced by Ontario, but its origins were definitely Erie. The S/SSW multiband stuff late last night that is. The current E-W band is pure Lk Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 lol, j/k. Congrats on the snow man. Long overdue for something good to happen up there. Thanks. Although when you post a 19" snow report it makes me realize I'm getting excited over lightweight stuff as far as LES goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah, BUF even mentioned that in their AFD NOW...TO MAKE MATTERS MORE INTERESTING...ON THE MESOSCALE WE HAD A FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF LK EFFECT OVER LK ERIE MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS FORMED LAST EVENING ON A TYPICAL SW-NE ORIENTATION...BUT IT NEVER MOVED ONSHORE. RATHER...SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECAME L/V AND EVEN BACKED TO SE...KEEPING THE BAND OFFSHORE AND EVENTUALLY SHOVING IT NORTH INTO THE NIAG PENINSULA. AT PRESS TIME...REMNANTS OF THIS BAND WERE SWINGING NORTHWEST UP ACROSS THE GOLDEN HORSESHOE OF ONTARIO...YOU DONT SEE LK ERIE SNOW MAKING IT TO TORONTO VERY OFTEN. It was enhanced by Ontario, but its origins were definitely Erie. The S/SSW multiband stuff late last night that is. The current E-W band is pure Lk Ontario. Someone around Port Colborne ON and Welland ON picked up couple inches from that band btw this a nice radar http://www.wivb.com/...x/weather/radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Longpoint is getting some lake effect from erie also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 724 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 ..MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWSTORM IN PROGRESS UPDATE/AVIATION INTENSE LK EFFECT CONTS TO POUND KSBN TERMINAL AND LTL RELIEF SEEN NR TERM W/NXT INTENSE WELL DVLPD MESOVORT JUST SOUTH OF HOLLAND MI DROPPING SSE. UPSTREAM CVRG FLANK IN ASSOCN/W THIS FTR LOOKS TO ARRIVE BACK INTO THE SBN TERMINAL TWD 14Z W/ANOTHER SVRL HOUR PD OF VRY HEAVY SNOW. GRIDS A WRECK ATTM AND WILL TRY TO BLEND IN SOME SHRT TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE TO TWEAK AMTS HIGHER OVR BERRIEN/ST JOSEPH. INLAND AREAS REMAIN DIFFICULT W/HEAVY SNOW REACH BUT W/DEEPER NRLY FETCH SEEN TAKING SHAPE ALONG LONG AXIS OF LK ALG W/TYPICAL DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT THINK EXISTING HEADLINES ARE OK FOR NOW. HWVR NEED TO AWAIT 12Z GUIDANCE TO SEE OF SUCCESSION OF UPSTREAM MESOVORTS DISRUPT FLW ENOUGH TO BACK PRIMARY SNOW BAND WWD FURTHER INTO NW INDIANA. MANY AREAS IN AND AROUND SOUTH BEND NR 2 FEET ALREADY AND COULD EASILY PICK UP ANOTHER FOOT. LTL CHG WARRANTED IN PRIOR 06Z TAFS AND CARRIED FWD W/12Z ISSUANCE. DO NOT XPC MUCH IF ANY IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TIMED W/EVENTUAL DROP IN EQL HGTS AND BREAKDOWN IN LL FLW. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE AT KFWA LTR THIS MORNING W/A PD OF MOD SNOW PSBL THIS AFTN YET WILL NOT VENTURE THAT MENTION YET AND AWAIT EVOLUTION OF THE BANDS INLAND THROUGH MORNING. SHORT TERM MESOSCALE DVLPMNT THIS MORNING CONSIDERABLY COMPLICATING NR TERM FCST. LEAD SW YIELDING ENHANCED LK EFFECT SNOW BANDS THIS MORNING PASSING NR KGYY AT THIS HOUR. IMPACT UPSTREAM OF THIS FTR THROUGH THIS MORNING HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIAL W/RAPID DRAMATIC UPSWING AND CONSOLIDATION OF SNOW BANDS W/DOMINANT SINGLE BAND IN PLACE FM KBEH N TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LUDINGTON WHERE A SMALL BUT WELL FORMED MESOVORT HAD DVLPD EARLIER. OTHER FTR OF NOTE WAS LARGER SCALE SW TROUGH OVR WRN LK HURON WHICH WILL DUMBBELL WEST THIS MORNING AND THEN TURN SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE THIS AFTN. 00Z HIGHRES GUIDANCE HAD SHIFTED SLIGHT WWD OF 12/18Z CONSENSUS AND GIVEN SHRT TERM RUC/HRRR INDICATORS LOOKS VALID AND DUE TO UPSTREAM AFFECTS FM SECONDARY SW FUJIWARA THIS AFTN. THIS LEADS TO POTENTIAL SIG PROBS W/CURRENT GRIDDED DEPICTION/PLACEMENT OF HEAVY SNOW AXIS PARTICULARLY FM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTN BUT WHICH LENDS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN EVENT HANGING ON LONGER AS DEEP EQL/INVERSION HGTS HOLD ON LONGER YET ALIGN WELL W/IMPLIED 12Z SUNDAY CUTOFF IN EXISTING WSW. SO FAR LK ENHANCEMENT HAS YIELDED SUBSTANTIAL SNOW RATES AND WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE W/FURTHER BAND CONSOLIDATION TWD DOMINANT SINGLE BAND. TIME/HGT CROSS SECTIONS IMPLY VRY ROBUST DEEP SATURATION ON THE ORDER OF 150-200 MB AND MORE INDICATIVE OF A DEEP SYNOPTIC CYCLONE ENVIRONMENT VS A LK ENHANCED EVENT AND SUSPECT 2-3 INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES YET TO COME ESP TWD DAYBREAK AND CONTG WELL INTO SAT EVE AND ALREADY EVIDENT IN RADAR DATA W/ECHO TOPS OVR LK MI UP TO 16KFT. SO PRIMARY NR TERM CHG THROUGH SAT AFTN IS TO SHUFFLE BAND PLACEMENT/ORIENTATION SWWD TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL IMPLIED SHIFT AND WHICH ALIGNS BTR W/OBSVD ORIENTATION THIS MORNING. INTERESTINGLY SOME AREAS COULD SEE RECORD SNOWFALL AMTS INCLUDING SBN W/2 DAY TOTALS THERE PSBLY HITTING OR EXCEEDING THE 2 FOOT MARK WHICH WOULD PLACE THIS EVENT TIED FOR 3RD ALL-TIME WITH 24 INCHES FALLING JAN 26/27 1978. SECONDARY SW DROPPING DOWN THIS AFTN WILL AGAIN LEAD TO A PD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING IN ASSOCN/W SPOKE OF MID LVL MSTR AND MODULATED FURTHER BY BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND LIKELY PIVOTAL TO XPCD MESOVORT TRACK. FLW ADJUSTMENT IN WAKE OF THIS FTR STILL VRY UNCERTAIN W/PD OF MULTIPLE BANDED DVLPMNT LIKELY BFR CONGEALING AGAIN. LATEST 06Z OP NAM HOLDS CLOSE W/PRIOR CONVICTIONS OF 00Z RUN SUGGEST UPGRADING KOSCIUSKO COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR LIKELY HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LT THIS AFTN/EVE ASSOCD/W REFORMING INTENSE SINGLE BAND ACRS THE NRN PORTION OF THE COUNTY AND WILL ADD WHITLEY INTO EXISTING ADVISORY GIVEN PROGGED INLAND PENETRATION OF BOTH MESOVORT AND TRAILING INTENSE FLANKING LINE THIS EVENING. XPC THIS INTENSE BAND WILL LINGER FOR SOME TIME GIVEN SLW EROSION TO BOTH LL THERMAL TROUGH AND MID LVL MSTR PLUME. HEADLINES FAR NW MAY NEED AN EXTENSION FURTHER INTO SUN AM TO ACCOUNT FOR DIMINISHING YET CONTD SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Thanks. Although when you post a 19" snow report it makes me realize I'm getting excited over lightweight stuff as far as LES goes. I got excited over 2-3" of LES down here in one event last December. I don't think there's anything wrong with being happy about a 3-5" hit. The 19" in the South Bend area is sweet, but certainly not unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Transitioned nicely over to a single band. Now we just need those 35 dbz returns to push onshore. This is a rare situation. Lake bands that usually feed on to the Tug Hill in N.Y. have done a switcheroo and are feeding into Toronto. It is snowing heavily downtown now and looks like plenty more to come judging by radars. It has been a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 7 AM LST... AND SNOW DEPTH AT 7 AM LST. SBN: SOUTH BEND AIRPORT IN: 21 / 17 / 0.79 / 21.6 / 23 7AM FRI-7AM TODAY SBN: SOUTH BEND AIRPORT IN: 30 / 16 / 0.08 / 2.6 / 2 7AM THURS-7AM FRIDAY 24.2 at SBN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Is this correct/legit for South Bend, 8" and 6" in one hour? :faints: And then a relatively tamer 3" in one hour. METAR KSBN 081054Z 00000KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG BKN001 OVC006 M08/M09 A2951 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/4 SLP006 SNINCR 8/19 P0015 T10831094 METAR KSBN 081154Z 28009KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV001 M08/M09 A2954 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/4 SLP017 SNINCR 6/23 931162 4/023 P0006 60039 70078 T10831094 11078 21083 52027 $ METAR KSBN 081254Z COR 25005KT 1SM -SN BR FEW011 BKN020 OVC027 M08/M10 A2956 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3 SLP024 SNINCR 3/24 P0006 T10831100 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This is a rare situation. Lake bands that usually feed on to the Tug Hill in N.Y. have done a switcheroo and are feeding into Toronto. It is snowing heavily downtown now and looks like plenty more to come judging by radars. It has been a long time Winds should stay SSE through 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Is this correct/legit for South Bend, 6" in one hour? :faints: And then a relatively tamer 3" in one hour. METAR KSBN 081154Z 28009KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV001 M08/M09 A2954 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/4 SLP017 SNINCR 6/23 931162 4/023 P0006 60039 70078 T10831094 11078 21083 52027 $ METAR KSBN 081254Z COR 25005KT 1SM -SN BR FEW011 BKN020 OVC027 M08/M10 A2956 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3 SLP024 SNINCR 3/24 P0006 T10831100 $ Radar showed very heavy plume stall the past two hours right over them....it's weakened/moved since...but another faster moving band moving in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This is a rare situation. Lake bands that usually feed on to the Tug Hill in N.Y. have done a switcheroo and are feeding into Toronto. It is snowing heavily downtown now and looks like plenty more to come judging by radars. It has been a long time Yeah, it's fascinating stuff. I wouldn't be as interested in the exact same amount of snow from a synoptic storm. Mesoscale's so much more interesting for some reason. How much do you think you've got down there? I'm 7-8cm (~3") here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 from AFD.... MANY AREAS IN AND AROUND SOUTH BEND NR 2 FEET ALREADY AND COULD EASILY PICK UP ANOTHER FOOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah, it's fascinating stuff. I wouldn't be as interested in the exact same amount of snow from a synoptic storm. Mesoscale's so much more interesting for some reason. How much do you think you've got down there? I'm 7-8cm (~3") here. This is so rare I find it more interesting than synoptic snows of same amount. Maybe 8-10 cm in MBY so far. If it keeps going we could easily get over 6 inches today. Who knew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This is so rare I find it more interesting than synoptic snows of same amount. Maybe 8-10 cm in MBY so far. If it keeps going we could easily get over 6 inches today. Who knew? The models really only started picking up on this potential around 18z yesterday, so there wasn't a lot of advance warning to the public. +SN right now. Big flakes. Have noticed a slight southward drift in the band which is consistent with the winds continuing to back to the NE, so I'm not sure how much longer we've got in the good stuff. Enjoy it while you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This is so rare I find it more interesting than synoptic snows of same amount. Maybe 8-10 cm in MBY so far. If it keeps going we could easily get over 6 inches today. Who knew? Congratulations guys. Not your typical wind direction to get LES, but it certainly works for you. I'lll have to warn my daughter of snow in Toronto on her drive back to school in Belleville. Is this reaching as far north as the 407? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Congratulations guys. Not your typical wind direction to get LES, but it certainly works for you. I'lll have to warn my daughter of snow in Toronto on her drive back to school in Belleville. Is this reaching as far north as the 407? Thanks Alan. A seasoned LES belter like yourself would scoff at this stuff but for us it's very exciting. It is, but not for long. Should be gradually shifting south the next hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 2011/01/08 13:30 CYYZ 081330Z 36009KT 1/4SM R33L/P6000FT/D R33R/P6000FT/D +SN VV003 M08/ RMK SN8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 2011/01/08 13:30 CYYZ 081330Z 36009KT 1/4SM R33L/P6000FT/D R33R/P6000FT/D +SN VV003 M08/ RMK SN8 Snowing like crazy downtown. Can't see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Snowing like crazy downtown. Can't see anything. Same here. Just by looking at the snowpile on my deck I'd say we very well could have picked up a fresh inch in about 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 +SN continues. Over 5". This might be the biggest pure LES event I've ever seen. Usually these pics don't do the snowfall rate justice, but this is pretty close. That's a tree by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 +SN continues. Over 5". This might be the biggest pure LES event I've ever seen. Usually these pics don't do the snowfall rate justice, but this is pretty close. That's a tree by the way. Cha-Ching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 WOW just WOW i logged on this morning to the env canada canada map, saw the 3 flakes symbol next to ottawa and then nearly choked when i saw the 10 flake icon under toronto!!!! someoen was talking about it in the upstate threead before i went to bed, didnt think much of it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 WOW just WOW i logged on this morning to the env canada canada map, saw the 3 flakes symbol next to ottawa and then nearly choked when i saw the 10 flake icon under toronto!!!! someoen was talking about it in the upstate threead before i went to bed, didnt think much of it.... i was tracking it all last night then felt sleep lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 +SN continues. Over 5". This might be the biggest pure LES event I've ever seen. Usually these pics don't do the snowfall rate justice, but this is pretty close. That's a tree by the way. Lots of good things happening this morning. Wow to the northern IN LES and about time for the Toronto area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ive had this recurring fear that one of these winters Detroit is bound to get a real stinker after being blessed for so many winters the past decade, but once again it does not appear that this will be a real stinker either, even if it ends up below avg (which I dont think it will, see below). Despite all the pessimisim from some SE MI posters, DTW has seen about 13 inches of snow so far which is really only a few inches below normal (4" below per 71-00 norms). And the backloaded-winter train is boarding and ready to barrel in. I have every confidence that Toronto and Battle Creek (two areas where posters have suffered the most this season, relative to climo) will have an above average season once the flakes cease in 3.5 months, not to mention Detroit, Chicago, etc will be above as well. you're always keeping it real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 +SN continues. Over 5". This might be the biggest pure LES event I've ever seen. Usually these pics don't do the snowfall rate justice, but this is pretty close. That's a tree by the way. Holy crap! Late getting on here this morning and just catching up. Lots of congrats are in order for SSC and the Toronto gang. Looks like you are going to end up with at least a half a foot of unexpected snow. This is gonna cost you some $$$ though. Maybe I should put some cash on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 WOW just WOW i logged on this morning to the env canada canada map, saw the 3 flakes symbol next to ottawa and then nearly choked when i saw the 10 flake icon under toronto!!!! someoen was talking about it in the upstate threead before i went to bed, didnt think much of it.... I love that icon, OL. Don't see it often enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Is this correct/legit for South Bend, 8" and 6" in one hour? :faints: And then a relatively tamer 3" in one hour. METAR KSBN 081054Z 00000KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG BKN001 OVC006 M08/M09 A2951 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/4 SLP006 SNINCR 8/19 P0015 T10831094 METAR KSBN 081154Z 28009KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV001 M08/M09 A2954 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/4 SLP017 SNINCR 6/23 931162 4/023 P0006 60039 70078 T10831094 11078 21083 52027 $ METAR KSBN 081254Z COR 25005KT 1SM -SN BR FEW011 BKN020 OVC027 M08/M10 A2956 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3 SLP024 SNINCR 3/24 P0006 T10831100 $ thats ridiculous......thats Tug Hill level stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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