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JAN. 6-9 LES Set up


Indystorm

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Most of the LES off Lk Ontario thus far has been multiband with convective features. With the fetch improving as the flow starts to back to more of a 80-90 direction, starting to see the development of a single band along the north side of the Lake.

$$$$ :)

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Psh :P Btw the radar really lighting up over Lake Ontario. If things were to hold for a while might make a significant dent in the snow drought.

Yeah, in a bit of a lull right now, but the nose of that band is pushing towards me. RUC and NAM in good agreement about a 4-6 hour window of opportunity. If it gets its act together, it'll be fun.

btw...are you pulling an all nighter? You've been on the board since I logged on around 3.30.

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Yeah, in a bit of a lull right now, but the nose of that band is pushing towards me. RUC and NAM in good agreement about a 4-6 hour window of opportunity. If it gets its act together, it'll be fun.

btw...are you pulling an all nighter? You've been on the board since I logged on around 3.30.

Midnights on weekends so I suppose you could say an all nighter :P

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Well, it's a living for you. I'm up tracking this stuff because I'm a nut. 3 hours of sleep and my whole day is going to be shot. But "reverse LES" is so uncommon, it's tought to take a pass on it.

Yeah it is a living and plus I get to be up to watch the glorious 06Z GFS come in :axe:

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:) I concede, you were right but...

There's the old meteorological adage, "when in drought, stay in doubt". I justified my pessimism on that, and I stand by it.

5" on the ground.

Ive had this recurring fear that one of these winters Detroit is bound to get a real stinker after being blessed for so many winters the past decade, but once again it does not appear that this will be a real stinker either, even if it ends up below avg (which I dont think it will, see below). Despite all the pessimisim from some SE MI posters, DTW has seen about 13 inches of snow so far which is really only a few inches below normal (4" below per 71-00 norms). And the backloaded-winter train is boarding and ready to barrel in. I have every confidence that Toronto and Battle Creek (two areas where posters have suffered the most this season, relative to climo) will have an above average season once the flakes cease in 3.5 months, not to mention Detroit, Chicago, etc will be above as well.

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I haven't been outside yet, but I would say at least two inches of snow fell overnight. Could be a tad more.

Excellent. I wouldn't be suprised if some areas locally have seen up to 4" already. With the WRF really kicking things into gear after 12z (I believe it, look those reflectivities on KC radar just offshore), I'm thinking this could be a general 4-8" with some lolipops.

Gotta question where EC is in all of this. I applaud them for adding accums. to the forecast yesterday when the RGEM and NAM first started hinting at this, but things are starting to go into second gear and they haven't even updated their SPS.

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BTW...looks like a misty sandy snow fell all night, as we have a new 0.1" covering of fine powder (in contrast to the fluffy snow of the past 2 days). So weve had 3.9" imby over the past 54 hours or so, depth about 2.5". All sparkles like a million diamonds, and I say this every winter when we get glittery snow like this..but its almost unreal how gorgeous it is! :wub:

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Ive had this recurring fear that one of these winters Detroit is bound to get a real stinker after being blessed for so many winters the past decade, but once again it does not appear that this will be a real stinker either, even if it ends up below avg (which I dont think it will, see below). Despite all the pessimisim from some SE MI posters, DTW has seen about 13 inches of snow so far which is really only a few inches below normal (4" below per 71-00 norms). And the backloaded-winter train is boarding and ready to barrel in. I have every confidence that Toronto and Battle Creek (two areas where posters have suffered the most this season, relative to climo) will have an above average season once the flakes cease in 3.5 months, not to mention Detroit, Chicago, etc will be above as well.

Yeah, relatively speaking Harry's been worse off than me. Sucks that yesterday's LES didn't pan out for him. I know you got hit pretty good with it so it must have stayed just north of him I guess?

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Yeah, relatively speaking Harry's been worse off than me. Sucks that yesterday's LES didn't pan out for him. I know you got hit pretty good with it so it must have stayed just north of him I guess?

Oh he still got plenty of snow, however it didnt pan out in terms of an 8"+ LES Warning as was planned. He'd have to tell you the total, but another poster from BTL area said he had 5" on the ground, which leads me to believe he had at least 6" over the past 2 days. The fact that Ive gotten nearly 4 inches of lake effect snow over the past 2.5 days (with a little synoptic enhancement from time to time) is a definite win for here, but thats because most of our accumulating LES is confined to a dusting to an inch. For Harry, a little closer to the lake belt, he has more snow on the ground than me still, but my totals met/somewhat exceeded my forecast, his did not. I was actually at work all day yesterday and dont know what happened, but I think Harry overperformed Thursday and way underperformed yesterday. We overperformed Thursday here, then underperformed all day yesterday until an insane band of snow dropped in at 5pm rush hour, dropping 1.4" here in 1 hour (1" at DTW in that hour).

BTW...add Hunter/MKE to my list in my previous post of most shafted areas who will end up above normal :)

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Excellent. I wouldn't be suprised if some areas locally have seen up to 4" already. With the WRF really kicking things into gear after 12z (I believe it, look those reflectivities on KC radar just offshore), I'm thinking this could be a general 4-8" with some lolipops.

Gotta question where EC is in all of this. I applaud them for adding accums. to the forecast yesterday when the RGEM and NAM first started hinting at this, but things are starting to go into second gear and they haven't even updated their SPS.

Good point. There are going to be a lot of shocked Torontonians today, including some members of the Toronto Blue Jays who are in town as part of the winter caravan.

http://toronto.bluej...ws_tor&c_id=tor

Snow is picking up once again. Let the show begin!

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Good point, There are going to be a lot of shocked Torontonians today, including some members of the Toronto Blue Jays who are in town as part of the winter caravan.

http://toronto.bluej...ws_tor&c_id=tor

Snow is picking up once again. Let the show begin!

Well, it's not Dunedin, so I hope they're not expecting spring training type weather? :)

EC just bumped us to 5-10cm/2-4" for today. If that's additional accumulation, then I think that's fair.

post-257-0-30995700-1294489858.jpg

Transitioned nicely over to a single band. Now we just need those 35 dbz returns to push onshore.

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2.3" through 5.30 am. :snowman:

Excellent. I wouldn't be suprised if some areas locally have seen up to 4" already. With the WRF really kicking things into gear after 12z (I believe it, look those reflectivities on KC radar just offshore), I'm thinking this could be a general 4-8" with some lolipops.

Gotta question where EC is in all of this. I applaud them for adding accums. to the forecast yesterday when the RGEM and NAM first started hinting at this, but things are starting to go into second gear and they haven't even updated their SPS.

Well, it's not Dunedin, so I hope they're not expecting spring training type weather? :)

EC just bumped us to 5-10cm/2-4" for today. If that's additional accumulation, then I think that's fair.

Transitioned nicely over to a single band. Now we just need those 35 dbz returns to push onshore.

:whistle:

lol, j/k. Congrats on the snow man. Long overdue for something good to happen up there.

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