michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Love how those dendrites sparkle like a million diamonds . All in all, quite pleased with today, but considering tomorrow afternoon/night is the "main show", still a little nervous about LES here, but so far, Im cautiously optimistic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Love how those dendrites sparkle like a million diamonds . All in all, quite pleased with today, but considering tomorrow afternoon/night is the "main show", still a little nervous about LES here, but so far, Im cautiously optimistic! I love how you can make little amounts of snow look so large Josh, really wintry looking down by you, up this way we are under an inch for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I love how you can make little amounts of snow look so large Josh, really wintry looking down by you, up this way we are under an inch for the day. lol. I notice on busy roads there seems to be more grass pickers than in residential areas. The 2nd pic there was an old snow pile left from December, and I thought it looked cool the way the dendrites sat/sparkled on it. Snowed most of the day today, starting at 1am, and Im thinking we close the day at 1.6" snowfall, though snow depth is closer just slightly above 1 inch, thanks to the fluffiness of the snow allowing settling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Interesting, only 2.4" on my snowboard in 24hours. Took numerous measurements of current snow depth around the yard, and got about 3.6" some areas had 4" I don't remember that much on the ground when I started last night, only a light dusting that just barely covered the ground. I think I need a snow fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Interesting, only 2.4" on my snowboard in 24hours. Took numerous measurements of current snow depth around the yard, and got about 3.6" some areas had 4" I don't remember that much on the ground when I started last night, only a light dusting that just barely covered the ground. I think I need a snow fence. Another guy ( who posts at my other forum ) who lives off sw Capital reported 3" which seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Interesting, only 2.4" on my snowboard in 24hours. Took numerous measurements of current snow depth around the yard, and got about 3.6" some areas had 4" I don't remember that much on the ground when I started last night, only a light dusting that just barely covered the ground. I think I need a snow fence. As long as your not pushing it into the grass, 3.6" could probably be right. Snow boards arent always perfect lol. Plus remember, fluffy snow settles, so if you only took 1 measurment after 24-hours of snowfall, the actual snowfall will be a little higher than what the depth is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 00z NAM looks for tomorrow afternoon/evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Ehh, ok, not bad then. It fluffy fricken stuff for sure-about a 22:1 snow ratio on my measurement Also, holy **!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 mind posting the nam at the time period you speak of mich? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Ehh, ok, not bad then. It fluffy fricken stuff for sure-about a 22:1 snow ratio on my measurement Also, holy **!! very impressive UVV's signal FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Love how those dendrites sparkle like a million diamonds . All in all, quite pleased with today, but considering tomorrow afternoon/night is the "main show", still a little nervous about LES here, but so far, Im cautiously optimistic! SO FLUFFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 very impressive UVV's signal FTW Looks like a pretty good event coming up. I'd consider chasing but I've felt like garbage since last night. Second time I've been sick in the past couple weeks...bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 mind posting the nam at the time period you speak of mich? Well, I was actually referring specifically to here (DTW), because its rare to see a model depict such an excellent signal for LES this far away from Lk MI Though it doesnt look bad for CLE either, but they are certainly a more lake effect prone area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 SO FLUFFY I love this kind of snow. ESPECIALLY when there is old snowcover. It would have been PERFECT to have our 5-6" dense snowpack from December with this as a topping, rather than starting from "scratch". Not complaining mind you, just lamenting a little at that damn New Years torch in what appears to be shaping up as quite a cold winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Appreciate it. I was interested to see this as well as I know how rare it is for Detroit to get lake effect. Thanks for posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like a pretty good event coming up. I'd consider chasing but I've felt like garbage since last night. Second time I've been sick in the past couple weeks...bleh. ummm yea...apparently so, i was lucky enough to stumble upon your clogged toilet thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Appreciate it. I was interested to see this as well as I know how rare it is for Detroit to get lake effect. Thanks for posting No problem. To simply get lake effect flurries or light snow showers, or even the occasional heavy le squall...is really not uncommon at all for Detroit. See it dozens of times every winter. However, to see lake effect of the magnitude the NAM and RGEM is showing, well thats something you dont even necessarily see once every winter. Thats why Im excited but very cautious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Ehh, ok, not bad then. It fluffy fricken stuff for sure-about a 22:1 snow ratio on my measurement Also, holy **!! Nice first we get Lake Michigan hit then flip it to the North and get Huron fetch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Uh oh (at least for Detroit & Lansing). http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 000FXUS63 KGRR 070337 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1037 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011 LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM... ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. NW FLOW CONTINUES TO HIT THE SW CORNER OF THE STATE WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW. A DOMINATE BAND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM JUST SOUTH OF BIV TO AZO. AZO/S VSBY HAS BEEN AROUND ONE MILE MUCH OF THE EVENING. WITH THE RADAR ESTIMATING AROUND AN INCH AN HOUR WITHIN THIS BAND. OTHER AREAS ARE NOT DOING AS WELL WITH SEVERAL HOLES IN THE LAKE EFFECT PATTERN...WHICH IS TYPICAL. WILL LEAVE HEADLINES AS IS AS THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY SNOW STILL EXISTS ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER...REGARDING THIS WIND SHIFT...THE 00Z NAM BUFKIT HAS ARRIVED AND IT DOES NOT TURN THE FLOW AS WESTERLY AS PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL NEED TO ANALYSIS THIS AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST HEADLINES IN THE MORNING IF THIS STILL SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO PLAY. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THE SW CORNER OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN THE SWEET SPOT AND TOTALS OF A FOOT OR TWO MAY BE RATHER LIKELY BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN ON SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ummm yea...apparently so, i was lucky enough to stumble upon your clogged toilet thread Just channeling my inner Sickman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like a pretty good event coming up. I'd consider chasing but I've felt like garbage since last night. Second time I've been sick in the past couple weeks...bleh. I would most likely be over there too but I have a wake and funeral tomorrow and saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 and im back in the band for now. Im liking the continued development out near the islands which could bode well for us here on the westside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here she comes again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here she comes again... what color palette it that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Very quiet night, maybe a few flurries, no new accumulation. For records purposes, Ill consider Jan 6th one event and Jan 7/8th one event. It was last Jan 7th that we had our first appreciable snowstorm (4.5") of the winter, after just an inch here, 2 inches there, etc. So, event #1, Jan 6, 2011: MBY: P- 0.08", S- 1.6" DTW: P- 0.07", S- 1.4" event #2, Jan 7/8, 2011: TBD As Ive said all along, Im very cautiously optimistic. DTX sounds good... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 413 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2011 .SHORT TERM... TODAY THE LULL IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING. COLD AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION ON NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TO INCREASE SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WELL-ORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED IN THE INTERSTATE 94/96 CORRIDOR BUT WITH GENEROUS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO BORDER THIS MORNING AND AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 69 THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WILL BE SUBJECT MOSTLY TO A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW BROUGHT THROUGH THE REGION BY THE UPPER WAVE ITSELF. ACCUMULATION AROUND 2 INCHES LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY NUMBER IN THE VICINITY OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BUT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OF BAND STRENGTH AND DURATION. EARLY INDICATIONS THAT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE SUGGESTED BY RADAR IMAGERY UP TO PRESS TIME. POCKETS OF 30 DBZ SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO WORK INLAND IN SW LOWER FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DESPITE CONSIDERABLE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN UPPER WAVES. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WHICH WILL HELP MORE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS REACH OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE NOT BRINGING A WHOLE LOT OF SNOWFALL ON ITS OWN, THE UPPER WAVE ROTATING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CONTINUED GROWTH OF CONVERGENCE BANDS OFF THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BACKGROUND FIELD OF WEAK VERTICAL MOTION WILL HELP LIFT CONVECTIVE DEPTH FROM OVER THE LAKE THROUGH MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE WITH RESPECT TO ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LIFTING THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL UP TO ABOUT 8 KFT AS FAR EAST AS METRO DETROIT BY MID AFTERNOON FUELED BY MODERATE TO EXTREME OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS SUGGESTED BY 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO ABOUT -17C. THIS MODEL AT LEAST GIVES US AN IDEA OF THE UPPER END OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CORRECTLY DEPICTED. THAT BEING SAID, HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW IS WEAK THROUGHOUT THE DAY MAKING THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGER LAKE EFFECT BANDS THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO THIS EVENING. && .LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO LAKE ERIE BY 12Z SATURDAY THEN TO THE NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. A WEAKENING VORT LOBE/COLD POOL WILL PIVOT SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY KEEPING A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OVERHEAD. OUR CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL SHIFT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE HURON AS THE PERSISTANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. BY SATURDAY MORNING...SEVERAL FACTORS LOOK PROMISING FOR A HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE THUMB. FIRST TO NOTE ARE THE IMPRESSIVE SOUNDINGS OVER LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF ALMOST 700 J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 14000 FEET. LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY A BAND OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION PIVOTING OVER LAKE HURON DURING THE MORNING WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THROUGH AT LEAST 700MB. THE TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD AID IN A HEAVY BAND DEVELOPING OFF THE LAKE INTO HURON COUNTY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES GIVEN THE -38C COLD POOL AT 500MB OVERHEAD. OF COURSE WITH ANY LAKE EFFECT EVENT THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAIN FACTORS. INITIALLY THESE INCLUDE WHERE EXACTLY THE BAND WILL SET UP...HOW WELL IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH NORTHWEST...AND HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL EXTEND. STILL THINKING A PERIOD OF 2+ INCH PER HOURS SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR HURON COUNTY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH INTO TUSCOLA/SANILAC COUNTIES BUT SHOULD BE FOR A SHORTER DURATION AS THE BAND SHIFTS FROM ONE COUNTY TO THE OTHER. A BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE LAKE BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS RE-FOCUS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE THUMB DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MOISTURE DEPTH AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY WHICH CORRESPONDS TO MID-LEVEL WINDS BACKING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND FORCING THE BAND FURTHER OFFSHORE. UNLIKE SOME LAKE EFFECT EVENTS...ALL OF HURON COUNTY MAY RECEIVE SNOWFALL FROM THIS EVENT WITH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY TARGETTED DURING THE MORNING AND EASTERN PORTIONS TARGETTED LATER IN THE DAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GREATER THAN 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW AND WILL RUN THE WATCH FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR TUSCOLA AND SANILAC COUNTIES AND WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE WATCH FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not looking so hot here, they revised last nights forecast down to getting about 5 inches versus 9. If that pans out, I am happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 DTX has me in he higehst amounts, thus probably most persistent banding (3-5" through Saturday). The band looks to be already setting up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 2.5" total so far since Wednesday...expecting another 1-2 today and tonight. Another inch tomorrow. Storm total of 4-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's been snowing pretty good for the past half hour to 45 minutes. In the last 15 minutes the flakes have gotten boigger and it has picked up in intensity. EDIT: It's officially heavy snow now. Funny thing is I'm not even under the strongest reflectivities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well it let up again for now after the brief period of heavy snow. You can even see a dim yellow circle (the sun) in the sky now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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