Isopycnic Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Changed this thread to an obs thread for storm threats between now and Sunday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Nope...not when it's sunny and in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Not much to discuss unless you live in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Not much to discuss unless you live in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Well I like the climo for this period....Mother-in-law's bday is Sat the 8th...and she says we always have wintery type wx around her bday.....and we have a few times....So I'm goin with climo....plus this is pretty impressive too.... Look at that baby TANK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Just read Allan Huffman's latest blog post. Said the models were showing something for this Thursday but then backed off. But it looks like something could happen big time in 10 days. We'll have to see. Seeing snow on Christmas was great. Now I am refreshed and getting back into the normal routine after the holidays, and it would be great to see a big snow in January. I just hope this time it does it during the week so I can at least get a day off work from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The Jan 9-10th threat is alive and well per the 00z gfs. This is the same southern stream shortwave we have been observing with the euro... nice to see the gfs finally come on board in a bigger way. Still quite a bit of time to watch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I thought there would be more talk about this since we're inside 7 days now with this threat. I guess everyone is still getting over the Christmas snow and New Year's. I am very interested to see what RaleighWX has to say today. He seemed pretty confident about early next week in his blog post yesterday. I think there is a good chance of a significant winter storm in the 1/10-1/13 period. Right now the model seem to be zeroing in on the 1/10-1/11 time frame. This is the time frame I have been going with since last week. There is still considerable spread among the ensemble members on the exact timing, which is related to when they kick out the southwest upper low. However, I am bullish on this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 bump. Made this an obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Folks in NC should like what they see so far... radar is really over preforming in comparison to the reflectivity the model guidance was showing. Compare This: To This: I'd say the precipitation is a good 50-100 miles north of what the nam was depicting in 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Folks in NC should like what they see so far... radar is really over preforming in comparison to the reflectivity the model guidance was showing. Compare This: To This: I'd say the precipitation is a good 50-100 miles north of what the nam was depicting in 30 minutes. [widremann] Those gulf storms will steal all the moisture from Chapel Hill and we will see NOTHING.[/widremann] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 [widremann] Those gulf storms will steal all the moisture from Chapel Hill and we will see NOTHING.[/widremann] <reality>We weren't supposed to see ANYTHING until yesterday, and a dusting isn't worth cliffdiving over.</reality> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 27/26 and cloudy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 37/31 as the sprinkles are sliding along just to my south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Currently completely cloudy here... actually quite surprised it clouded up so quickly after dawn. Its really limiting the daytime heating so far. Temp: 31.2 degrees Dewpoint: 25 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 33 here. Clouded up pretty early. Looking for some rain/snow mix tonight, maybe all snow if the rates can overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Currently completely cloudy here... actually quite surprised it clouded up so quickly after dawn. Its really limiting the daytime heating so far. Temp: 31.2 degrees Dewpoint: 25 degrees actually quite surprised here as well. at 9:30 temp was 32. full, lowering cloud deck. was moving in from WNW direction at that time... at 6 this morning not a cloud to be seen here in mcdowell right on the escarpment. by 8a, 80% coverage. will check temps at lunch time here on the lee side. that radar looks rather promising! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 East CONUS Water Vapor Loop not sure how to post the actual image itself...maybe someone can?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looking forward to my chilly rain later this afternoon. Sitting at a toasty 47 here in Dahlonega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looking forward to my chilly rain later this afternoon. Sitting at a toasty 47 here in Dahlonega. Same here, close to 40 now. Maybe later on??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Same here, close to 40 now. Maybe later on??? Your going to be oh so close tonight. Better watch the flood lights. I'm up to 49 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Good update imo from GSP this late this morning. WWA for the mountains. WE ARE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR A GOOD BIT OFTHE NC MTNS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT.THE GFS IS DOING A MUCH BETTER JOB PICKING UP ON THE PCPN OVERMIDDLE TN THIS MORNING THAN IS THE NAM. ODDLY...THE NAM HAS NO PCPNWHATSOEVER IN THIS AREA EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A WIDESPREAD AREA OFPCPN OVER MIDDLE TN. THIS AREA OF PCPN LINES UP WELL WITHFRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 600-700 MB LAYER ON THE GFS...AND 500MB PVA ON PRETTY MUCH ALL THE MODELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHINGSHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN TN. THE GFS GENERATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWOVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MTNS BY LATEAFTN...WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE MTNS INTOTHE EVENING HOURS. LOOKING AT THE REGIONAL RADAR...THE PCPN SHOULDSTART AROUND 20 UTC /3 PM EST/ OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST MTNS THENSPREAD QUICKLY TO THE EAST. I USED A CONSERVATIVE 10:1 SNOW RATIOAND I WENT A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFS QPF. THAT IS TO SAY...I MAYHAVE GONE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IN SOME PLACES. I AM HAVING TROUBLEGETTING WET BULB TEMPS LOW ENOUGH OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THESOUTHWEST MTNS FOR MUCH SNOW. SO ACROSS GRAHAM...SWAIN AND MACONCOUNTIES I HAVE THE SNOW MAINLY CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3KFT.HOWEVER...TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE UNDER THE DENSE CLOUDCOVER..AND EVEN THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE MORE.THE GFS AND THE NAM BRING THE PCPN OUT ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS ANDPIEDMONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IN FACT...I HAVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCHOF SNOW IN MANY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF CHARLOTTE LATE TONIGHT. IDON/T THINK TEMPS WILL GET LOW ENOUGH FARTHER SOUTH TO SUPPORT MUCHSNOW ACCUMULATION. by the way my obs... temperatures rising pretty quickly here. Little concerned honestly considering the dewpoint. Temp: 36.8 degrees Dewpoint: 28 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Euro would probably drop 1-3 inches across the mountains, foothills, and western piedmont tonight. Going to be interesting to watch. Pretty much all depends on sfc temps. Still only 36 here as of 1245 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Talked to a friend north of Nashville just a little bit ago and he mentioned HUGE snowflakes falling, beautiful scene but not sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Already getting some snow flurries here! Seems like some the bands on composite are reaching the ground. Temp: 37.2 degrees Dewpoint: 27.2 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Been getting some light flurries here for the past 30 minutes or so, off and on. 40 degrees here, not sure what the dewpoint is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoAPPS Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Sitting in Hickory here. The situation looks kind of iffy for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Light rain here temp is 38 and that has been the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 showing some decent radar returns here, but nothing making ground-fall at the moment. don't know temps (i'm still at school), but it was 38 at 12:45p...forecast high was 41... i predict seeing some precip by dark:30...(given reports from west of me)... good luck to all who'd like to see some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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