12z euro hr 240

[ORH_wxman]

The "heights" have been low, YES. But that is because they are being compressed. If they were lower to begin with, less compression ... less anomalously fast flow. The ENSO is likely contributing to trying to raise heights while the dominating NAO is exerting from the north = zippedy doo-dah, zippedy a

Oh I see what you are saying...yes, I definitely won't argue that the far southeast has seen much faster flow than usual...particularly for a Nina when they are often under a SE ridge and the flow is mostly to their north.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm going to steal wxmx's "receptive" term again here.

There are things going on in the stratosphere that one would typically not exact at all with a solid la nina and a strong +QBO. You usually don't see waves penetrate into the stratosphere so easily in such a state, and while we have not had a "major warming" (yet), it seems that the low solar period is making the stratosphere more receptive to the Eurasian waves, which yes I think are being aided by snowcover. We saw the same thing in 08-09. Even though the nina was weaker, the negative ENSO state plus the QBO would not have led one to believe we'd get something like what we saw in January 2009.

Hi Brian ..

Eurasian waves? can you elaborate - "aided by snow cover"? This sounds interesting.

[A-L-E-X]

I'm going to steal wxmx's "receptive" term again here.

There are things going on in the stratosphere that one would typically not exact at all with a solid la nina and a strong +QBO. You usually don't see waves penetrate into the stratosphere so easily in such a state, and while we have not had a "major warming" (yet), it seems that the low solar period is making the stratosphere more receptive to the Eurasian waves, which yes I think are being aided by snowcover. We saw the same thing in 08-09. Even though the nina was weaker, the negative ENSO state plus the QBO would not have led one to believe we'd get something like what we saw in January 2009.

Brian, this is really interesting and I remember that analog (Jan 09) being thrown around recently. Isnt January usually the most susceptible month to milder than normal temps, even during la ninas with neg nao (1966-67 and 1995-96 come to mind). I wonder if this January will play out similarly to that one which was very atypical for la nina (and what the differences might be with a much stronger la nina but also much stronger blocking.) We had more days of snowcover in 08-09 than we ever had in 09-10, even though we had twice as much snow in the latter year.

[Roger Smith]

This is the ramp of all time, to find evidence of a magnetic pole shift at +240.

Of course, it is the Euro. I would be more skeptical if it were the GFS.

[clskinsfan]

Someone mentioned earlier in the thread that our weather has been very stable for the past few hundred thousand years. Continental alignment has a large effect on that. The earth has the ability to transfer heat to the poles through the oceans water currents. Slowing the gulf stream would cause a colder Great Britain and Europe. So maybe Chuck is onto something with the oil spill idea.

In past times when the Earth had Super Continents. The Earth was much warmer and prone to catastrophic volcanism.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

This is the ramp of all time, to find evidence of a magnetic pole shift at +240.

Of course, it is the Euro. I would be more skeptical if it were the GFS.

can you elaborate? I find this material intriguing...

[VAwxman]

Hi Brian ..

Eurasian waves? can you elaborate - "aided by snow cover"? This sounds interesting.

Hey John,

I'll be fairly quick and simplistic here due to time constraints, but the basic idea is that the buildup of snowcover there led to the buildup of stronger cold air masses, which we can see by looking at the December temperature anomalies.

The Eurasian sector looks very different from "nina climo" as shown here:

In fact, the high latitudes look more nino-ish than nina really, which is interesting since, all else being equal (which yes we know rarely happens), a nino base state is more conducive for blocking. But anyway, the colder air masses suppress the thermal gradient and cause a displacement of the jet coming off east Asia, and more amplification in the west Pacific than a typical nina has. These waves of amplification can propagate into the stratosphere as well, though usually the +QBO prevents this from occurring as easily. But this year that has not been the case. I think the low solar regime we are in may be a reason why the stratosphere is more receptive to these waves. While we have not yet had a major warming, the waves have had an impact on the Eurasian side of the stratosphere, and the persistence of these waves looks to be leading to bigger warming in the coming days. This also may not reach MMW status, but I do think these events are helping the blocking to be much more dominant than a strict QBO correlation would ever suggest.

[Paweatherguy1]

Just curious...this stuff is way over my head, just wondering if you guys have backgrounds in astronomy as well as meteorology?

[nzucker]

This is an awesome discussion, folks. Really wonderful information and analysis.

One question that I'm wondering about is will this winter's high-latitude blocking pattern see a significant reversal sometime in February. Do we basically continue with a record-breaking NAO/AO block for the remainder of the winter, or will La Niña assert control of the pattern finally and cause more of a SE ridge/+AO look with warmer anomalies in the CONUS? I thought the cold regime would break down after December with the QBO going so positive and the influence of the NAO fading, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Overall, this is a very unusual La Niña winter. I wonder how similar it is to years like 1916-17 and 1903-04?

Would the reversal of Earth's magnetic field have an effect on global temperatures? What other weather patterns could be influenced?

[Supercane]

Bump. This is a great thread.

Some of you were earlier discussing what could be driving the NAO/AO and AMO cycles. This is something that I have been researching lately, and I am now wondering if they drive each other in a negative feedback loop.

+NAO increases westerlies over the Gulf Stream. This strengthens the current, and so warmer-than-normal SSTs are carried to Europe and the North Atlantic. Thus, the entire Atlantic merdional overturning circulation is intensified, leading to a +AMO.

The increased oceanic heat transport via the loop current means the atmosphere has less heat to transport poleward. This raises SLPAs in the North Atlantic and eventually forces a long-term -NAO. Then the cycle repeats in reverse.

Under this scheme, solar irradiance acts as a very important modifyer. I think the current solar downturn is speeding up and amplifying the natural transition to a long-term -NAO.

Thoughts?

[A-L-E-X]

Bump. This is a great thread.

Some of you were earlier discussing what could be driving the NAO/AO and AMO cycles. This is something that I have been researching lately, and I am now wondering if they drive each other in a negative feedback loop.

+NAO increases westerlies over the Gulf Stream. This strengthens the current, and so warmer-than-normal SSTs are carried to Europe and the North Atlantic. Thus, the entire Atlantic merdional overturning circulation is intensified, leading to a +AMO.

The increased oceanic heat transport via the loop current means the atmosphere has less heat to transport poleward. This raises SLPAs in the North Atlantic and eventually forces a long-term -NAO. Then the cycle repeats in reverse.

Under this scheme, solar irradiance acts as a very important modifyer. I think the current solar downturn is speeding up and amplifying the natural transition to a long-term -NAO.

Thoughts?

I like this idea because as I mentioned in another thread, the arctic regions are particularly sensitive to solar influence, and I think this would directly affect the AO which would then impart its influence on NAO, and this would feed back in a variably cyclic pattern (because the sun has several different cyclical patterns, some that feedback positively, others that feedback negatively.)

I caution though that there is still much we need to learn about the way the sun (and other stars) function. Much of the solar processes involve quantum mechanics.... did you know that if it was up to newtonian physics or even einsteinian relativity, the sun and other stars wouldnt be able to output a sufficient amount of energy to be visible? Because of the way the density increases inside them would block photons from escaping to a large degree. its only QMs idea that photons and other particles can take many different pathways at the same time as well as the idea of retrocausation (that is a photon that has escaped in the future can send information back in time to enable itself to escape in the past and present, since at the level of QM, time can go either way) that enables the sun and other stars to function as we see them.....

Aharanov wrote a great paper on this.

[A-L-E-X]

Yes, its absolutely incredible what kind of stable pattern we're in right now. Besides the weather, it also has to do with the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere, the relative lack of large asteroid/comet impacts, the tilt of the earth's axis and also the earth's magnetic field (which paleontology has shown has changed frequently in the past and on "short" notice-- at least in geological terms) I think this kind of fragility is what will spur on some kind of intentional artificial climate modification once scientists realize the climate's stability is about to come to an end.

Bump for HM

The thing about magnetic reversals that struck me was that rapid weather changes seem to occur after magnetic reversals that come after large lulls when there is stability-- for example there was a large period of time during the Cretaceous when we didnt have a magnetic field reversal and right when it happened the climate got colder. Now, the asteroid that hit the Yucatan probably made it more extreme than it otherwise would have been, but there have also been other short term climate variations that have occurred after long periods of magnetic stability that ended with reversals. The snow cover feedback idea is another great one; I remember Brian showing maps of how snow cover and temp anomalies have been well correlated this year, especially in Europe.

[tacoman25]

This Winter is turning out to be pretty cold everywhere. Many important pattern drivers say the NAO should not have been negative for the long, or anywhere close to the levels, and yet records continue to break. I wonder what's skewing it so much this Winter. The oil spill slowing down the Gulf Stream ever so slightly? The Sun coming off a 2-3 year record low period? Both are possible explanations.

By the way, it's pretty amazing to see a -NAO period so strong that it is literally overpowering the Pacific pattern in one of the strongest La Nina's on record. The Polar Cycle is constantly carrying more weight than the Hadley Cell because of the constant retrogression of these blocks. A strong -EPO pattern is about to bring a record breaking cold into the Midwest because of the -NAO that is forming now. The -NAO is truly controlling every aspect of this Winter.

If this continues, the US could see it's coldest Winter in a long time thanks to a strong +QBO in place right now. This is constantly strengthening the Polar Vortex. It's funny how a change of pattern suddenly makes an indexes correlation with our weather so different. The strong +QBO is very good for US cold in a major Polar Blocking pattern.

You picked a good winter to not issue an official forecast.

[Lee]

You picked a good winter to not issue an official forecast.

Yeah, from his earlier opinions It was looking like as if he had he would have went with one of the warmest ever.

[nzucker]

Yeah, from his earlier opinions It was looking like as if he had he would have went with one of the warmest ever.

To his credit, I think he did tone down the warm idea this fall but was still leaning above average for most. His 500mb configuration showed a very typical blowtorch pattern with a low amplitude Aleutian ridge and a strong low in the GoA (+EPO). We've seen more more amplification from the Aleutian Ridge, pulling colder than normal air from the North Pole into Northwest Canada this winter. We're also getting a huge AK block right now which certainly wasn't exactly expected in a La Niña, but I'll take it.

Overall a very interesting winter, and one of the hardest to forecast.

[eurojosh]

Not sure if anyone posted this yet....

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2011/jan/05/shift-of-earths-magnetic-north-pole-impacts-tampa-/