12z euro hr 240

[Sundog]

Yes, history actually shows that we are overdue for a magnetic field change right now. With a large and growing ozone hole over the South Pacific among other global abnormalities, maybe this is in the process of happening? Another possible explanation for the Earths decadal cycles accelerating into extreme states now.. the list of these reasons could go on for a while.

With weakening magnetic fields you get punctuated evolution - a period of elevated naturally occurring mutations that may or may not lead to favorable traits in species that become propagated. It's not something we want technically because it would increase our chances of getting cancers even beyond the odds that we have already created artificially through damage to the environment, food supply, etc.

[A-L-E-X]

Maybe April snow in Tulsa? :thumbsup:

That may be the case during solar grand minima (like Maunder), and even regular great minima (my own term for periods like Damon [1910's] and Dalton)

http://news.national...earth-core.html

Thanks okie, reading that now. I think you were the one who mentioned what we consider today as AO -1 to be the "normal" AO state during solar grand minima.

[A-L-E-X]

With weakening magnetic fields you get punctuated evolution - a period of elevated naturally occurring mutations that may or may not lead to favorable traits in species that become propagated. It's not something we want technically because it would increase our chances of getting cancers even beyond the odds that we have already created artificially through damage to the environment, food supply, etc.

Time that with a gamma ray burst and you could have something globally tragic on your hands. As a matter of fact, just last July, NASA recorded the greatest gamma ray burst theyve ever measured. Could you imagine that with a weakening magnetic field?

[Typhoon Tip]

This Winter is turning out to be pretty cold everywhere. Many important pattern drivers say the NAO should not have been negative for the long, or anywhere close to the levels, and yet records continue to break. I wonder what's skewing it so much this Winter. The oil spill slowing down the Gulf Stream ever so slightly? The Sun coming off a 2-3 year record low period? Both are possible explanations.

By the way, it's pretty amazing to see a -NAO period so strong that it is literally overpowering the Pacific pattern in one of the strongest La Nina's on record. The Polar Cycle is constantly carrying more weight than the Hadley Cell because of the constant retrogression of these blocks. A strong -EPO pattern is about to bring a record breaking cold into the Midwest because of the -NAO that is forming now. The -NAO is truly controlling every aspect of this Winter.

If this continues, the US could see it's coldest Winter in a long time thanks to a strong +QBO in place right now. This is constantly strengthening the Polar Vortex. It's funny how a change of pattern suddenly makes an indexes correlation with our weather so different. The strong +QBO is very good for US cold in a major Polar Blocking pattern.

I'm unsure of the QBO relationship to the polar fields other than a perhaps direct linear comparison; I'll take your word as you are probably better versed in that correlation if there is one.

That said, it is not just the NAO that has been persisting negative. The entire Arctic Oscillation has also been - we need to remember that the two fields share domain space, and can skew the result of either.

I don't think that is it though. I have been monitoring the GFS polar field initializations over the last month and a half and there is a fascinating annular ring of warm anomalies that island a small region of cool right over the pole its self. This annular ring has several nodes of warm anomaly in the 75-100mb levels, and it collocates over the EPO and NAO latitudes. This is different than STW events - nor is there any propagation. It is modeled to persist out through 240 hours, and has been that way since the observations began. It would seem unlikely to me that its presence would less likely be due to planetary wave decay because of its symmetrical appearance around the pole, between 60-80N.

I believe the the cause for that may in fact be in the solar cycle. This much I know UV+ breaks down ozone. During solar maximum, the visible range of the electromagnetic spectrum is actually slightly dimmer, but the UV range brightens. During solar minimum, these flip anomalies, visible light increases and UV drops. We are of course talking fractions of total candle power not detectable without instrumentation, but integrated over the entire atmosphere in a quasi-balanced system would intuitively impose some sensitivity to change. That seems to be the bases behind the papers I have read, but is shown mathematically plausible. The idea here is that there is slightly increased ozone trapped in the polar vortex that the current low sun-spot number circumstance is less capable of cleansing. This residence would in fact heat up in that ring, which is approximately where the terminus is along the plain of eclipse. The result is a net gain in heat that is immediately registered in the creation of blocking as the height of the tropopause is lifted.

The trouble with this La Nina - or any for that matter, is that they have never been tested during a 300 year superposition of the 11, 22, ..whatever nested negative intervals, which we have going on for the next 15 years or so. During this/that time, the next maximum should be limited, and any minimum should be anomalously strong. What also makes this really intriguing to me is that the AMO has flipped signs and is descending, which is an interesting superposition in its self. We have a negative solar cycle ...historic one really, coinciding with a normally timed cyclic collapse of the AMO. That really rings cold.

[Sundog]

Time that with a gamma ray burst and you could have something globally tragic on your hands. As a matter of fact, just last July, NASA recorded the greatest gamma ray burst theyve ever measured. Could you imagine that with a weakening magnetic field?

It goes to show you how fragile our setup really is. And yet with every major disaster in the Earth's history, life manages to bounce back.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Yeah, this occurred to me too, and I admit I was amazed when I read that a magnetic field change could occur over a number of weeks. Who knows what kind of climate change such a quick switch would have before the climate had a chance to restabilize.

You made a great connection between that and the southern ozone hole-- ozone forms from oxygen being bombarded with charged ions and UV... so that could definitely be a "lead in" to something big.

I've read the process takes hundreds to thousands of years to complete. If this is true we may just beat it, technologically.

With weakening magnetic fields you get punctuated evolution - a period of elevated naturally occurring mutations that may or may not lead to favorable traits in species that become propagated. It's not something we want technically because it would increase our chances of getting cancers even beyond the odds that we have already created artificially through damage to the environment, food supply, etc.

Yes, this would be a bad thing. The government has built models that track the magnetic field progression across the Earth. Most of these models agree that the reversal process is slowly happening, but accelerating.

[Typhoon Tip]

Time that with a gamma ray burst and you could have something globally tragic on your hands. As a matter of fact, just last July, NASA recorded the greatest gamma ray burst theyve ever measured. Could you imagine that with a weakening magnetic field?

thank goodness there are no objects within 300 light year critical distance to impose a catastrophic CRB

[Bostonseminole]

thank goodness there are no objects within 300 light year critical distance to impose a catastrophic CRB

are we still talking about the 240hr Euro??

[Typhoon Tip]

are we still talking about the 240hr Euro??

good one

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I'm unsure of the QBO relationship to the polar fields other than a perhaps direct linear comparison; I'll take your word as you are probably better versed in that correlation if there is one.

That said, it is not just the NAO that has been persisting negative. The entire Arctic Oscillation has also been - we need to remember that the two fields share domain space, and can skew the result of either.

I don't think that is it though. I have been monitoring the GFS polar field initializations over the last month and a half and there is a fascinating annular ring of warm anomalies that island a small region of cool right over the pole its self. This annular ring has several nodes of warm anomaly in the 75-100mb levels, and it collocates over the EPO and NAO latitudes. This is different than STW events - nor is there any propagation. It is modeled to persist out through 240 hours, and has been that way since the observations began. It would seem unlikely to me that its presence would less likely be due to planetary wave decay because of its symmetrical appearance around the pole, between 60-80N.

I believe the the cause for that may in fact be in the solar cycle. This much I know UV+ breaks down ozone. During solar maximum, the visible range of the electromagnetic spectrum is actually slightly dimmer, but the UV range brightens. During solar minimum, these flip anomalies, visible light increases and UV drops. We are of course talking fractions of total candle power not detectable without instrumentation, but integrated over the entire atmosphere in a quasi-balanced system would intuitively impose some sensitivity to change. That seems to be the bases behind the papers I have read, but is shown mathematically plausible. The idea here is that there is slightly increased ozone trapped in the polar vortex that the current low sun-spot number circumstance is less capable of cleansing. This residence would in fact heat up in that ring, which is approximately where the terminus is along the plain of eclipse. The result is a net gain in heat that is immediately registered in the creation of blocking as the height of the tropopause is lifted.

The trouble with this La Nina - or any for that matter, is that they have never been tested during a 300 year superposition of the 11, 22, ..whatever nested negative intervals, which we have going on for the next 15 years or so. During this/that time, the next maximum should be limited, and any minimum should be anomalously strong. What also makes this really intriguing to me is that the AMO has flipped signs and is descending, which is an interesting superposition in its self. We have a negative solar cycle ...historic one really, coinciding with a normally timed cyclic collapse of the AMO. That really rings cold.

I agree, the Solar Minimum is the most likely cause for this among the examples listed.

Why would a decling AMO phase favor a -NAO period (they all do in strong numbers, and the opposite correlation is also true)... ? Is it possible the cause for whatever is driving these Atlantic SST cycles is also driving the long term NAO state? Whatever this factor is, it has to be at record levels now. Which the Sun just was.

The +QBO directly strengthens the Polar Vortex at 30mb, which propagates to the 500mb level very quickly so the correlation is a good one. The Polar Vortex is on average more amplified in a +QBO period than -QBO at the upper and mid latitudes.

[okie333]

are we still talking about the 240hr Euro??

"240hr Euro Predicts Magnetic Field Reversal"... don't think so

[A-L-E-X]

I've read the process takes hundreds to thousands of years to complete. If this is true we may just beat it, technologically.

Yes, this would be a bad thing. The government has actually built models that track the magnetic field progression across the Earth. Most of these models agree that the reversal process is slowly happening, but accelerating.

And this acceleration is happening after a long period of inactivity, similar to what happened when the Dinosaurs were at their peak during the Cretaceous. I think the whole process itself takes thousands of years but the event itself happens quickly (in a geological sense.) According to estimates, the reversal will cause the field to completely collapse somewhere between year 3000 and 4000 -- though we really have no idea of the exact timing on this.

[Typhoon Tip]

I agree, the Solar Minimum is the most likely cause for this among the examples listed.

Why would a decling AMO phase favor a -NAO period (they all do in strong numbers, and the opposite correlation is also true)... ? Is it possible the cause for whatever is driving these Atlantic SST cycles is also driving the long term NAO state? Whatever this factor is, it has to be at record levels now. Which the Sun just was.

The +QBO directly strengthens the Polar Vortex at 30mb, which propagates to the 500mb level very quickly so the correlation is a good one. The Polar Vortex is on average more amplified in a +QBO period than -QBO at the upper and mid latitudes.

Egh, I'm sorry Chuck, I misspoke -

not the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation.

I meant ...or was thinking rather, about the multi-decadal oscillation of the NAO with that - which interestingly I believe the PDO follows the same curve with high correlation coefficients.

[A-L-E-X]

thank goodness there are no objects within 300 light year critical distance to impose a catastrophic CRB

lol we are going way off topic I guess, but it's quite possible that Sirius B (white dwarf companion to Sirius) engorges itself on enough mass from its partner to one day reawaken and go supernova. Granted you and I will be long gone by then, but it being 8 light years away would probably not be a very good thing for our descendants to witness.

[VAwxman]

The +QBO directly strengthens the Polar Vortex at 30mb, which propagates to the 500mb level very quickly so the correlation is a good one. The Polar Vortex is on average more amplified in a +QBO period than -QBO at the upper and mid latitudes.

The vortex has been stronger at 30 mb, though displaced over toward Europe's side of the globe. This has not propagated to the troposphere very well though, as polar fields have been weaker there.

It really seems to be more related to the solar cycle + these waves over off the Eurasian sector, causing more amplfication and thus contributing further to blocking.

[A-L-E-X]

I agree, the Solar Minimum is the most likely cause for this among the examples listed.

Why would a decling AMO phase favor a -NAO period (they all do in strong numbers, and the opposite correlation is also true)... ? Is it possible the cause for whatever is driving these Atlantic SST cycles is also driving the long term NAO state? Whatever this factor is, it has to be at record levels now. Which the Sun just was.

The +QBO directly strengthens the Polar Vortex at 30mb, which propagates to the 500mb level very quickly so the correlation is a good one. The Polar Vortex is on average more amplified in a +QBO period than -QBO at the upper and mid latitudes.

I think the old phrase "may you live in interesting times" is really living up to its billing. If we do enter / are entering an extended period of solar minima then we could analyze it versus what happened in the early part of the 20th century and compare the differences and perhaps separate "natural" from "artificial" if you know what I mean. This is a great opportunity to do some detective work first hand (as opposed to reading about it in old texts when you dont know how valid the data is) and figure out what really drives these cyclical changes and what is the "cause" and what is the "effect."-- whether its ozone, magnetic field, sst, solar or a combination of these.

[buckeye]

"240hr Euro Predicts Magnetic Field Reversal"... don't think so

I updated the thread title

[Typhoon Tip]

I agree, the Solar Minimum is the most likely cause for this among the examples listed.

Why would a decling AMO phase favor a -NAO period (they all do in strong numbers, and the opposite correlation is also true)... ? Is it possible the cause for whatever is driving these Atlantic SST cycles is also driving the long term NAO state? Whatever this factor is, it has to be at record levels now. Which the Sun just was.

The +QBO directly strengthens the Polar Vortex at 30mb, which propagates to the 500mb level very quickly so the correlation is a good one. The Polar Vortex is on average more amplified in a +QBO period than -QBO at the upper and mid latitudes.

I wonder why that is? wow, cool. That's awesome. QBO is an equitorial band of wind that starts at a gazzilion feet up and propagates down in time... 18 months or so give or take, then reverses as we know... But I how does that radiate a physical influence all the way to the poles? Obviously it does if the correlation is that strong, but how. man

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The vortex has been stronger at 30 mb, though displaced over toward Europe's side of the globe. This has not propagated to the troposphere very well though, as polar fields have been weaker there.

It really seems to be more related to the solar cycle + these waves over off the Eurasian sector, causing more amplfication and thus contributing further to blocking.

What I'm saying is that the strengthened 30mb PV is helping to intensify the cold further down in areas where a displaced trough may reside. It's not forcing a pattern, but amplifying it. So in a blocking setup where large 500mb ridging at the poles is the primary pattern, the stronger than normal mid-latitude cold waves help to feed back with the Greenland ridging like you mention, and intensify the blocking to near record levels like we saw a few weeks ago and may again soon. It's most likely a combination of the +QBO/Strong La Nina (both are PV amplifiers) and an extended Solar Minimum that is causing this persistent pattern.

[wxmx]

I wonder why that is? wow, cool. That's awesome. QBO is an equitorial band of wind that starts at a gazzilion feet up and propagates down in time... 18 months or so give or take, then reverses as we know... But I how does that radiate a physical influence all the way to the poles? Obviously it does if the correlation is that strong, but how. man

Brewer-Dobson circulation, perhaps?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I wonder why that is? wow, cool. That's awesome. QBO is an equitorial band of wind that starts at a gazzilion feet up and propagates down in time... 18 months or so give or take, then reverses as we know... But I how does that radiate a physical influence all the way to the poles? Obviously it does if the correlation is that strong, but how. man

It's a 30/50mb wind oscillation. This basically is the Earth's upper level rotation. The rotation is strongest at the Poles. Here's a visual of the cold season QBO/30mb pattern correlation.

Obviously, things like ENSO and Solar Cycle also play a role.

[ORH_wxman]

What I'm saying is that the strengthened 30mb PV is helping to intensify the cold further down in areas where a displaced trough may reside. It's not forcing a pattern, but amplifying it. So in a blocking setup where large 500mb ridging at the poles is the primary pattern, the stronger than normal mid-latitude cold waves help to feed back with the Greenland ridging like you mention, and intensify the blocking to near record levels like we saw a few weeks ago and may again soon. It's most likely a combination of the +QBO/Strong La Nina (both are PV amplifiers) and an extended Solar Minimum that is causing this persistent pattern.

I find it incredible that its doing this (the extreme blocking) so early in the enso event...relatively speaking. We saw an incredible strength of this Nina heading through fall. I'm not an expert on the QBO and its exact relationships with disturbing PVs (just know that negative QBO is better for disturbing it because its usually weaker, and positive creates stronger)...but you would expect some sort of SE ridging to really try and assert itself with an enso signal that strong, but as you already mentioned, its been completely utterly dominated by the Atlantic blocking

[Typhoon Tip]

lol we are going way off topic I guess, but it's quite possible that Sirius B (white dwarf companion to Sirius) engorges itself on enough mass from its partner to one day reawaken and go supernova. Granted you and I will be long gone by then, but it being 8 light years away would probably not be a very good thing for our descendants to witness.

It depends - if its poles are not aimed at us, it would be no more than an interesting spectacle in the sky.

[Typhoon Tip]

I find it incredible that its doing this (the extreme blocking) so early in the enso event...relatively speaking. We saw an incredible strength of this Nina heading through fall. I'm not an expert on the QBO and its exact relationships with disturbing PVs (just know that negative QBO is better for disturbing it because its usually weaker, and positive creates stronger)...but you would expect some sort of SE ridging to really try and assert itself with an enso signal that strong, but as you already mentioned, its been completely utterly dominated by the Atlantic blocking

...

Indeed, but but I think the SE heights have been there... We have seen an anomalous wind stream energy in the balanced geostrophic mean for some time - accentuated by the presence of the west based NAO pinning low heights near 50N then triggering exaggerated gradients. I believe we have had more gradient near 35N than last year, for example. That, I believe, is where the current ENSO rears its influence.

[ORH_wxman]

Indeed, but but I think the SE heights have been there... We have seen an anomalous wind stream energy in the balanced geostrophic mean for some time - accentuated by the presence of the west based NAO pinning low heights near 50N then triggering exaggerated gradients. I believe we have had more gradient near 35N than last year, for example. That, I believe, is where the current ENSO rears its influence.

Well the heights in the SE have been well below avg...we've sene brief periods where the SE ridge tries to get going but those times have been totally dominated by episodes of low heights down there....the recent deep trough digging down all the way to Florida in the last storm being the most recent example....

December height anomalies

[A-L-E-X]

It depends - if its poles are not aimed at us, it would be no more than an interesting spectacle in the sky.

True-- we probably only detect a very small fraction of the gamma ray bursts that actually happen, because the majority arent oriented towards us. I still wonder if a supernova explosion that close by would cause some sort of cosmic shock wave which could overtake the solar system-- but we probably have many more things to worry about that are much closer in time than that.

[A-L-E-X]

I find it incredible that its doing this (the extreme blocking) so early in the enso event...relatively speaking. We saw an incredible strength of this Nina heading through fall. I'm not an expert on the QBO and its exact relationships with disturbing PVs (just know that negative QBO is better for disturbing it because its usually weaker, and positive creates stronger)...but you would expect some sort of SE ridging to really try and assert itself with an enso signal that strong, but as you already mentioned, its been completely utterly dominated by the Atlantic blocking

Will, I wonder that if indeed the main cause happens to be solar, that its more a matter of changes in the sun overpowering the la nina rather than the atlantic doing it. In that case, both would be effects with the sun being the parent cause.

[ORH_wxman]

Will, I wonder that if indeed the main cause happens to be solar, that its more a matter of changes in the sun overpowering the la nina rather than the atlantic doing it. In that case, both would be effects with the sun being the parent cause.

Well yeah...we don't know for sure though...but regardless of the cause of the Atlantic blocking...the blocking is dominating the pattern. It would obviously be nice to know the physical forcing mechanism that is causing an extreme NAO block to be the "base state" essentially the past 15 months....and generally negative another 15 months before that.

[VAwxman]

I'm going to steal wxmx's "receptive" term again here.

There are things going on in the stratosphere that one would typically not exact at all with a solid la nina and a strong +QBO. You usually don't see waves penetrate into the stratosphere so easily in such a state, and while we have not had a "major warming" (yet), it seems that the low solar period is making the stratosphere more receptive to the Eurasian waves, which yes I think are being aided by snowcover. We saw the same thing in 08-09. Even though the nina was weaker, the negative ENSO state plus the QBO would not have led one to believe we'd get something like what we saw in January 2009.

[Typhoon Tip]

Well the heights in the SE have been well below avg...we've sene brief periods where the SE ridge tries to get going but those times have been totally dominated by episodes of low heights down there....the recent deep trough digging down all the way to Florida in the last storm being the most recent example....

December height anomalies

The "heights" have been low, YES. But that is because they are being compressed. If they were lower to begin with, less compression ... less anomalously fast flow. The ENSO is likely contributing to trying to raise heights while the dominating NAO is exerting from the north = zippedy doo-dah, zippedy a