buckeye Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 i swear i did not draw that on there....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 inb4threadmove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 inb4threadmove i was referring to some of the coldest 850's in north america being located over the OV. Why what were you thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 i was referring to some of the coldest 850's in north america being located over the OV. Why what were you thinking? Yes cold looking map you have there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 computer generated weekend product or not, when was the last time you saw an 8-14 day forecast from CPC where the probabilities favored the entire lower 48 states as Below Normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 i swear i did not draw that on there....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 computer generated weekend product or not, when was the last time you saw an 8-14 day forecast from CPC where the probabilities favored the entire lower 48 states as Below Normal? last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 i was referring to some of the coldest 850's in north america being located over the OV. Why what were you thinking? Novia Scotia just got put away wet KNOVA 022137Z AUTO 14003KT 2SM WEENIED OVC003 01/01 A2980 RMK AO2 RAB31 P0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Who cares about dry cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Who cares about dry cold I do, this artic pump system is a crucial ingredient for an epic winter in the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 that map has weenie written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This Winter is turning out to be pretty cold everywhere. Many important pattern drivers say the NAO should not have been negative for the long, or anywhere close to the levels, and yet records continue to break. I wonder what's skewing it so much this Winter. The oil spill slowing down the Gulf Stream ever so slightly? The Sun coming off a 2-3 year record low period? Both are possible explanations. By the way, it's pretty amazing to see a -NAO period so strong that it is literally overpowering the Pacific pattern in one of the strongest La Nina's on record. The Polar Cycle is constantly carrying more weight than the Hadley Cell because of the constant retrogression of these blocks. A strong -EPO pattern is about to bring a record breaking cold into the Midwest because of the -NAO that is forming now. The -NAO is truly controlling every aspect of this Winter. If this continues, the US could see it's coldest Winter in a long time thanks to a strong +QBO in place right now. This is constantly strengthening the Polar Vortex. It's funny how a change of pattern suddenly makes an indexes correlation with our weather so different. The strong +QBO is very good for US cold in a major Polar Blocking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This Winter is turning out to be pretty cold everywhere. Many important pattern drivers say the NAO should not have been negative for the long, or anywhere close to the levels, and yet records continue to break. I wonder what's skewing it so much this Winter. The oil spill slowing down the Gulf Stream ever so slightly? The Sun coming off a 2-3 year record low period? Both are possible explanations. By the way, it's pretty amazing to see a -NAO period so strong that it is literally overpowering the Pacific pattern in one of the strongest La Nina's on record. The Polar Cycle is constantly carrying more weight than the Hadley Cell because of the constant retrogression of these blocks. A strong -EPO pattern is about to bring a record breaking cold into the Midwest because of the -NAO that is forming now. The -NAO is truly controlling every aspect of this Winter. Do you think the cold will last through January, and how about February? I had been on the warm February train, but with these latest developments... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Do you think the cold will last through January, and how about February? I had been on the warm February train, but with these latest developments... Every thing seems to be pointing toward a major warm up, but these things are almost irrelevant right now. Truly a one of a kind Winter. My guess is the -NAO continues. Why wouldn't it? The last 2 months, 6 months, one year, 2 years have had a lower NAO/AO than all previous periods on record. coupled with a Pacific ridge, late January/February could produce a great pattern in New England but I don't know about down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This Winter is turning out to be pretty cold everywhere. Many important pattern drivers say the NAO should not have been negative for the long, or anywhere close to the levels, and yet records continue to break. I wonder what's skewing it so much this Winter. The oil spill slowing down the Gulf Stream ever so slightly? The Sun coming off a 2-3 year record low period? Both are possible explanations. By the way, it's pretty amazing to see a -NAO period so strong that it is literally overpowering the Pacific pattern in one of the strongest La Nina's on record. The Polar Cycle is constantly carrying more weight than the Hadley Cell because of the constant retrogression of these blocks. A strong -EPO pattern is about to bring a record breaking cold into the Midwest because of the -NAO that is forming now. The -NAO is truly controlling every aspect of this Winter. If this continues, the US could see it's coldest Winter in a long time thanks to a strong +QBO in place right now. This is constantly strengthening the Polar Vortex. It's funny how a change of pattern suddenly makes an indexes correlation with our weather so different. The strong +QBO is very good for US cold in a major Polar Blocking pattern. If this is true, then we arent as far off from intentional climate modification on a large scale as some think. I had earlier said it would become a practical reality within the next 200 years; I might have been too conservative with that estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Everything seems to be pointing toward a major warm up, but these things are almost irrelevant right now. Truly a one of a kind Winter. My guess is the -NAO continues. Why wouldn't it? The last 2 months, 6 months, one year, 2 years have had a lower NAO/AO than all previous periods on record. coupled with a Pacific ridge, late January/February could produce a great pattern in New England but I don't know about down here. Oh, I'm very thankful to be going back to NYC soon. Even though DC has had the cold, the big event obviously hit further N (although the remnants of the 1.5" a few weeks ago only just melted a day or two ago!). It's just amazing to see the charts after last winter, when you wouldn't have thought the NAO or AO could go lower. Well, they're both about to tank heavily again... shocking that even after changing the charts to allow for the display of more severe anomalies, we still might veer off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Oh, I'm very thankful to be going back to NYC soon. Even though DC has had the cold, the big event obviously hit further N (although the remnants of the 1.5" a few weeks ago only just melted a day or two ago!). It's just amazing to see the charts after last winter, when you wouldn't have thought the NAO or AO could go lower. Well, they're both about to tank heavily again... shocking that even after changing the charts to allow for the display of more severe anomalies, we still might veer off. and I thought that thread about a Jan 1994 repeat was a joke thread-- maybe not. I mean, it probably wont be as extreme as that, but consistent cold of a couple degrees below normal with even a minimal snowcover would create a Jan 2009 type of pattern which resulted in more days of snowcover than the entire winter of 2009-10! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Both the GFS and Euro ensembles want to bring the NAO block back in the Day 12-15 time range after the current -NAO gives way to the huge -EPO block. Its amazing how it keeps coming back after it gets broken down. Each time it gets broken down, you start to think it might go + for a while but it just wants to go right back to a big block every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Both the GFS and Euro ensembles want to bring the NAO block back in the Day 12-15 time range after the current -NAO gives way to the huge -EPO block. Its amazing how it keeps coming back after it gets broken down. Each time it gets broken down, you start to think it might go + for a while but it just wants to go right back to a big block every time. If this thing keeps going, I shudder to think what might happen later on in the season when the nina actually weakens lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 If this is true, then we arent as far off from intentional climate modification on a large scale as some think. I had earlier said it would become a practical reality within the next 200 years; I might have been too conservative with that estimate. In the grand scheme, weather right now is in an incredibly stable cycle. Only 40 thousand years ago did the Earth become calm enough for humans to significantly evolve. Archeological digs and Ice cores show the period we are in now may be relatively short term in the overall picture, an anomalous phase. When you realize what may cause significant weather differences from century to century, it becomes apparent that this planets climate is very fragile. Any small change in the flow can cause significant effects. I agree, sooner than 200 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 If this thing keeps going, I shudder to think what might happen later on in the season when the nina actually weakens lol. It actually won't matter much. The Pacific is only effecting the STJ right now. Our pattern wouldn't be much different if ENSO was Neutral, it may be warmer actually (Nina strengthens the PV). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Both the GFS and Euro ensembles want to bring the NAO block back in the Day 12-15 time range after the current -NAO gives way to the huge -EPO block. Its amazing how it keeps coming back after it gets broken down. Each time it gets broken down, you start to think it might go + for a while but it just wants to go right back to a big block every time. Yes, like a block is it's normal state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 In the grand scheme, weather right now is in an incredibly stable cycle. Only 40 thousand years ago did the Earth become calm enough for humans to significantly evolve. Archeological digs and Ice cores show the period we are in now may be relatively short term in the overall picture, an anomalous phase. When you realize what may cause significant weather differences from century to century, it becomes apparent that this planets climate is very fragile. Any small change in the flow can cause significant effects. I agree, sooner than 200 years. Yes, its absolutely incredible what kind of stable pattern we're in right now. Besides the weather, it also has to do with the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere, the relative lack of large asteroid/comet impacts, the tilt of the earth's axis and also the earth's magnetic field (which paleontology has shown has changed frequently in the past and on "short" notice-- at least in geological terms) I think this kind of fragility is what will spur on some kind of intentional artificial climate modification once scientists realize the climate's stability is about to come to an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It actually won't matter much. The Pacific is only effecting the STJ right now. Our pattern wouldn't be much different if ENSO was Neutral, it may be warmer actually (Nina strengthens the PV). Good point-- and to back that up, looking back on ENSO neutral years, we've had some of our milder winters (like 2001-2). This might actually be a best of both worlds scenario right now between the enso and the - ao/nao... of course, a weak la nina a la 1966-67 or 1995-96 might have been even better lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yes, like a block is it's normal state. You know what I thought of immediately as I read your post-- I remember someone else mentioning that in the distant past, what's considered the normal state of the AO back then would be considered -1 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yes, its absolutely incredible what kind of stable pattern we're in right now. Besides the weather, it also has to do with the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere, the relative lack of large asteroid/comet impacts, the tilt of the earth's axis and also the earth's magnetic field (which paleontology has shown has changed frequently in the past and on "short" notice-- at least in geological terms) I think this kind of fragility is what will spur on some kind of intentional artificial climate modification once scientists realize the climate's stability is about to come to an end. Yes, history actually shows that we are overdue for a magnetic field change right now. With a large and growing ozone hole over the South Atlantic among other global abnormalities, maybe this is in the process of happening? Another possible explanation for the Earths decadal cycles accelerating into extreme states now.. the list of these reasons could go on for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 A better view of what's to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yes, history actually shows that we are overdue for a magnetic field change right now. With a large and growing ozone hole over the South Pacific among other global abnormalities, maybe this is in the process of happening? Another possible explanation for the Earths decadal cycles accelerating into extreme states now.. the list of potential reasons could go on for a while. Yeah, this occurred to me too, and I admit I was amazed when I read that a magnetic field change could occur over a number of weeks. Who knows what kind of climate change such a quick switch would have before the climate had a chance to restabilize. You made a great connection between that and the southern ozone hole-- ozone forms from oxygen being bombarded with charged ions and UV... so that could definitely be a "lead in" to something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 If this thing keeps going, I shudder to think what might happen later on in the season when the nina actually weakens lol. Maybe April snow in Tulsa? :thumbsup: Yes, like a block is it's normal state. That may be the case during solar grand minima (like Maunder), and even regular great minima (my own term for periods like Damon [1910's] and Dalton) Yes, its absolutely incredible what kind of stable pattern we're in right now. Besides the weather, it also has to do with... the earth's magnetic field (which paleontology has shown has changed frequently in the past and on "short" notice-- at least in geological terms) http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/06/080630-earth-core.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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