Mikehobbyst Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Looking like a 3-4 week historical cold period based on the latest GFS runs of endless weeks of not breaking freezing this month. Maybe a very few days get to 35 to be realistic. The 1993-1994 cold January could be beaten is month. I think we have a chance to own that winter's cold and maybe beat it with a -8 to -10 F low in the city and -10 to -15 F lows on the island sometime this month. The scary thing it is looking very likely too and not a hype or wishing thing. Massive snowfall can come out of this crazy pattern if our opportunities phase correctly and time correctly. This could be the strongest and most severe winter since late 1970's. I would hedge on that bet right now.... I think we have a top 1 or top 2 coldest January since records were taken with a mean average temp below freezing too. This is looking historical to me. Do others see this ?? Also the AO and NAO stay negative indefinately !!!!! Coldest air from Siberia comes over too... This is too much to handle if you are a cold and snow person. I am sure everyone is stoked about this month in the northeast based on the signals alone. I do not think I am too far from reality about the cold magnitude being historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 We can hope but I'm not sure the City ever sees a low of -8 to -10 ever again...the heat island effect is so much that in the absence of strong CAA it would take 850s of -30 to -35C to get it....even with -26C in 2004 we only managed 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 We've not even been below 10 degrees in the urban areas in at least 2 or 3 years even with the deep snowpack We can hope but I'm not sure the City ever sees a low of -8 to -10 ever again...the heat island effect is so much that in the absence of strong CAA it would take 850s of -30 to -35C to get it....even with -26C in 2004 we only managed 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 What 1000-500 mb thickness would it take to get NYC down to -5F? The GFS is making some attempts to get these to 490 thickness. That is zero or -1F stuff. 93-94 chimes in. Are -26C to -30C 850's in the pipeline this month ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 As Snowgoose stated, you need 850s near -30c to get NYC below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Looking like a 3-4 week historical cold period based on the latest GFS runs of endless weeks of not breaking freezing this month. Maybe a very few days get to 35 to be realistic. The 1993-1994 cold January could be beaten is month. I think we have a chance to own that winter's cold and maybe beat it with a -8 to -10 F low in the city and -10 to -15 F lows on the island sometime this month. The scary thing it is looking very likely too and not a hype or wishing thing. Massive snowfall can come out of this crazy pattern if our opportunities phase correctly and time correctly. This could be the strongest and most severe winter since late 1970's. I would hedge on that bet right now.... I think we have a top 1 or top 2 coldest January since records were taken with a mean average temp below freezing too. This is looking historical to me. Do others see this ?? Also the AO and NAO stay negative indefinately !!!!! Coldest air from Siberia comes over too... This is too much to handle if you are a cold and snow person. I am sure everyone is stoked about this month in the northeast based on the signals alone. I do not think I am too far from reality about the cold magnitude being historic. Actually I am with you on this prediction. Alot of younger people do not remember, but the big deal in the 70's was also frozen rivers and ice jams. The Susquehanna River was already freezing over at Harrisburg two weeks ago. If this brief warm-up is over by the middle of the week, we are in trouble. The ice in the river usually indicates very cold soil conditions- 2-3 foot frozen soils in the watershed. That is not going away soon. On top of that, little snow cover in the area except New jersey leads to deeper frozen soils. If we get a fresh snow cover on top of this, the setup is there for real cold weather and for a long duration. The ground hog just maybe frozen in his cage come February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 We can hope but I'm not sure the City ever sees a low of -8 to -10 ever again...the heat island effect is so much that in the absence of strong CAA it would take 850s of -30 to -35C to get it....even with -26C in 2004 we only managed 0. At this point, I would consider it a huge victory if we got down below 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 The 1993-94 cold January was already beaten in January 2004 - and I consider January 2004 a better winter month than it's 1994 counterpart - it was both snowier and colder. People in the NYC area wax poetic about late 70's winters, but in retrospect, they are slightly over romantacized. The 1976-77 winter, particularly January, featured astonishing cold, but really very little snow. The 1977-78 winter saw hardly any snow until the ill-forecast near blizzard on 20 January and of course the main event of the winter less than three weeks later. 1978-79 had quite a cold February, but the only notable snowfall was President's Day I, which was a great storm SW of NYC but really put down only about a foot or so in NYC. An average January has a mean around freezing in NYC. The mean would have to be around 21 F or 22 F to have a top 1 or 2 coldest Januarys. Although I believe NYC will see below zero readings again (possibly this winter), a -8 F or -10 F at one of the local airports or CPK is the longest of longshots. A -1 F or -2 F is about the best you can hope for. Jan 2004 was much snowier and a better month for snow, but aside from average temp (which you know I think are tainted) Jan 1994 had much more extreme cold in terms of lows-- it was the first time in a long time we've had two arctic shots of subzero cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I would be happy to hit 0 F again here in Cape May. I have not seen it since 1996. Perhaps after the middle of the month if we have fresh snowcover and lighter winds. It was a shame to lose the current snow and see the Delaware Bay and canal no,longer have floating chunks of ice. If this is our "thaw", I'll take it for an historic mid-winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 At this point, I would consider it a huge victory if we got down below 0. If Trenton did likewise, I would too. Though I hope my poor little redwood could handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 If Trenton did likewise, I would too. Though I hope my poor little redwood could handle it. Ray, you have a redwood? How big is it so far? Those things can get huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Ray, you have a redwood? How big is it so far? Those things can get huge! About a foot and a half, I think (I haven't measured it). Its been in the ground since fall of '09. Here's what it looked like on Christmas: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ray, good luck with that redwood. I'd love to see it make it through a hard winter - maybe with some mulch and TLC! Even a good layer of snow!? About a foot and a half, I think (I haven't measured it). Its been in the ground since fall of '09. Here's what it looked like on Christmas: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ray, good luck with that redwood. I'd love to see it make it through a hard winter - maybe with some mulch and TLC! Even a good layer of snow!? Snow would be best, if it was buried and it got subzero it'd probably be fine. Wouldn't bet on having that foot and a half of snow, though... it seems that extreme cold rarely accompanies extreme snow back there in Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Snow would be best, if it was buried and it got subzero it'd probably be fine. Wouldn't bet on having that foot and a half of snow, though... it seems that extreme cold rarely accompanies extreme snow back there in Jersey. How many years need to go by before it reaches a height of say 30 feet? Is it a slow grower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Snow would be best, if it was buried and it got subzero it'd probably be fine. Wouldn't bet on having that foot and a half of snow, though... it seems that extreme cold rarely accompanies extreme snow back there in Jersey. If you've got any snow lying around it may help to carefully cover the tree with it. It's the roots that need the most protection, I think. You can uncover it when the cold moderates. I'd love to see a redwood growing in the Trenton area, but if that isn't possible, why not try a Dawn Redwood, or even a Baldcypress? They are all more or less closely related, but the latter two survive our winters by dropping their needles, like a deciduous tree. Even the Sierra Bigtree, or Giant Sequoia, can survive some cold winter weather. There's a nice Baldcypress growing on the Princeton campus, outside the Art Museum. PS - Here's a quote from a Wikipedia article: " Coast redwood trees were used in a display at Rockefeller Center and then given to Longhouse Reserve in East Hampton, Long Island, New York and these have now been living there for over 17 years (2010) and survived 2°F (-17°C)." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 How many years need to go by before it reaches a height of say 30 feet? Is it a slow grower? Sundog, I'm pulling this out of my head, but I remember reading that redwood stumps were burned to prevent them sprouting after felling. Instead, Douglas-fir was planted, because it grows faster. Not a direct answer, but from that tidbit, redwoods likely aren't the fastest growing trees, despite their great height at maturity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GFS is nuts toward the end of the run. Shows below 0 for lows in NYC. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GFS is nuts toward the end of the run. Shows below 0 for lows in NYC. http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=kNYC Those GFS 16-day outputs do that for NYC at least once every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 How many years need to go by before it reaches a height of say 30 feet? Is it a slow grower? In its native environment they grow pretty fast, but in NJ probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 If you've got any snow lying around it may help to carefully cover the tree with it. It's the roots that need the most protection, I think. You can uncover it when the cold moderates. I'd love to see a redwood growing in the Trenton area, but if that isn't possible, why not try a Dawn Redwood, or even a Baldcypress? They are all more or less closely related, but the latter two survive our winters by dropping their needles, like a deciduous tree. Even the Sierra Bigtree, or Giant Sequoia, can survive some cold winter weather. There's a nice Baldcypress growing on the Princeton campus, outside the Art Museum. PS - Here's a quote from a Wikipedia article: " Coast redwood trees were used in a display at Rockefeller Center and then given to Longhouse Reserve in East Hampton, Long Island, New York and these have now been living there for over 17 years (2010) and survived 2°F (-17°C)." No fun growing Dawn Redwood or Bald Cypress, I've seen them around so they obviously do OK around Trenton. You're right that the roots are most vulnerable (hence the blanket of leaves you can see in the photo), but the above ground stems also aren't particularly hardy. I've seen varying reports that damage to above-ground portions will occur below -15C (5F). Hence my concern about temps falling below 0. I also have a Sequoia near the Redwood. They are more vulnerable to fungal attacks thanks to the humid summers in NJ; winter isn't a problem for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Sundog, I'm pulling this out of my head, but I remember reading that redwood stumps were burned to prevent them sprouting after felling. Instead, Douglas-fir was planted, because it grows faster. Not a direct answer, but from that tidbit, redwoods likely aren't the fastest growing trees, despite their great height at maturity. Do you recall where you saw that quote? It seems a bit odd to me personally, as they seem to grow quite fast in their native environment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Do you recall where you saw that quote? It seems a bit odd to me personally, as they seem to grow quite fast in their native environment... Ray, I don't remember the source, but it is an old memory - around the time when redwoods were being heavily clearcut in N california before the land was incorporated into the Redwoods National Park. This would be in the late 60's - early 70s - old stuff. It did seem odd to me at the time, since redwood sprouts vigorously after being cut, so for all I know, it may have been enviro-propaganda. I'm an old lefty tree-lover, so that information stuck with me at the time, true or not. My bad, if not true. I spent a long period in California, and still am not acclimated to NJ, so I can sympathize with the poor S. sempervirens you are growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe1946 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looking like a 3-4 week historical cold period based on the latest GFS runs of endless weeks of not breaking freezing this month. Maybe a very few days get to 35 to be realistic. The 1993-1994 cold January could be beaten is month. I think we have a chance to own that winter's cold and maybe beat it with a -8 to -10 F low in the city and -10 to -15 F lows on the island sometime this month. The scary thing it is looking very likely too and not a hype or wishing thing. Massive snowfall can come out of this crazy pattern if our opportunities phase correctly and time correctly. This could be the strongest and most severe winter since late 1970's. I would hedge on that bet right now.... I think we have a top 1 or top 2 coldest January since records were taken with a mean average temp below freezing too. This is looking historical to me. Do others see this ?? Also the AO and NAO stay negative indefinately !!!!! Coldest air from Siberia comes over too... This is too much to handle if you are a cold and snow person. I am sure everyone is stoked about this month in the northeast based on the signals alone. I do not think I am too far from reality about the cold magnitude being historic. Wrong, so far here in the Somervillle NJ area it has been 50, 48, 36, 40 and 39 this month . 2010 was the warmest year on record for many areas of the NE and I bet 2011 will be about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I was figuring these temps weren't going to verify. These are from northeast phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wrong, so far here in the Somervillle NJ area it has been 50, 48, 36, 40 and 39 this month . 2010 was the warmest year on record for many areas of the NE and I bet 2011 will be about the same. huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like the cold air is back in.... These readings are from Northeast Philadelphia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What station is that for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What station is that for? its from norhteast philadelphia. Sorry I fixed the original post to read the location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 its from norhteast philadelphia. Thanks! Wow thats cold-- I dont ever remember seeing it depicted that cold before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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