Configuration of PV

[showmethesnow]

Was glancing over the different Ensemble members and started to wonder what the effects of different configurations and locations of the PV would have on the upcoming weather.

Looking at the 00Z 132 hr members I noticed 3 distinct looking PV patterns.

In the majority was a broad east to west PV.

Broad PV

The second type was a broad look with a PV split with a lobe to the northeast.

Split PV

The third type was a sharp north to south PV from Canada to the gulf states.

Sharp PV

Not an expert by any means but thinking it through I would think the broad look would feature any storm rotating around the PV would maybe take it through roughly the area of Maine? The split PV would maybe bring the storm up to NE maybe stall it then take it out to sea? The one that interests me is the sharp north to south trough and it has me wondering if this would have the potential to be a major storm from Florida up to Maine if any southern energy happens to be in the area as a piece of energy rotating around the PV comes by.

Would love to hear any feedback from any knowledgeable person so I can get a better understanding of PV's

[showmethesnow]

Just looked at the 06Z GFS ensemble members for the same time frame as the 00Z and they now show 4 members with the distinct north to south PV with 3 others very close to that look. The 00Z members featured more of a broad west to east look to the PV with only a few exceptions.

I still have a bias as far as the quality of the off runs of the GFS but I have to wonder if we may be seeing the beginnings of the models featuring a sharper north to south PV as opposed to a broad west to east PV.

[pcbjr]

Was glancing over the different Ensemble members and started to wonder what the effects of different configurations and locations of the PV would have on the upcoming weather.

Looking at the 00Z 132 hr members I noticed 3 distinct looking PV patterns.

In the majority was a broad east to west PV.

Broad PV

The second type was a broad look with a PV split with a lobe to the northeast.

Split PV

The third type was a sharp north to south PV from Canada to the gulf states.

Sharp PV

Not an expert by any means but thinking it through I would think the broad look would feature any storm rotating around the PV would maybe take it through roughly the area of Maine? The split PV would maybe bring the storm up to NE maybe stall it then take it out to sea? The one that interests me is the sharp north to south trough and it has me wondering if this would have the potential to be a major storm from Florida up to Maine if any southern energy happens to be in the area as a piece of energy rotating around the PV comes by.

Would love to hear any feedback from any knowledgeable person so I can get a better understanding of PV's

I second the request for feedback!

I would ask that you share the source of the maps; I'd like to follow them for a few days.

[showmethesnow]

I second the request for feedback!

I would ask that you share the source of the maps; I'd like to follow them for a few days.

I was hoping for some feedback as well to get a better understanding of PV's. Oh well.

Anyway, here you go. The ensembles are on the right hand side.

http://raleighwx.ame...com/models.html

BY the way the 12Z at 120 hrs (same time period as previous referenced) had several sharp north to south members pop up as well but they were positioned farther north and not all the way down into the gulf states.

[pcbjr]

I was hoping for some feedback as well to get a better understanding of PV's. Oh well.

Anyway, here you go. The ensembles are on the right hand side.

http://raleighwx.ame...com/models.html

BY the way the 12Z at 120 hrs (same time period as previous referenced) had several sharp north to south members pop up as well but they were positioned farther north and not all the way down into the gulf states.

Thanks for the input - that's a part of Raleigh's site I was unaware of (live and learn)!

Oh well, for the gulf states - been hoping December would carry through until March

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The pattern usually produces a strong system on its east side (usually 970s mb). In this timeframe a very strong Miller B storm looks possible. The problem with this pattern is that the STJ is cutoff completely, it's being squashed. So any low pressure accompanying a NW flow will be very dry. The pattern has the potental to produce some light snowfall events and strong winds, but nothing major, and more likely Maine than Florida.

[showmethesnow]

The pattern usually produces a strong system on its east side (usually 970s mb). In this timeframe a very strong Miller B storm looks possible. The problem with this pattern is that the STJ is cutoff completely, it's being squashed. So any low pressure accompanying a NW flow will be very dry. The pattern has the potental to produce some light snowfall events and strong winds, but nothing major, and more likely Maine than Florida.

Thanks for the reply.

I assume you are referring to the sharp north south pv on the comment above. Question I do have is that most off the models showing this pv orientation also have a cut off low in the south west and I was wondering if a piece of energy riding under it could possibly provide a different outcome with it basically moving across the deep south? I am guessing that it would have difficulty in interacting with any energy revolving around the pv because of the displacement of both pieces of energy but what if you actually had another piece of energy riding over top of the cutoff? I would think the odds of this timing out right would be very high but just curious if this would be actually be a solution that might work for a storm riding all the way up the east coast?